The worst is over

Now the South African economy can catch up, argues Cees Bruggemans.

JOHANNESBURG - Our decline into recession was abrupt. We fell deep, perked up late and now surge belatedly in places as we play catch up off sometimes very low bases.

Still makes growth performance feel good where it shows.

Although expectations about World Cup foreign visitors are being revised lower, there will still be a party atmosphere this winter, adding to GDP.

Also, with so much summer rain, up country looking very green and the maize crop already estimated at 13mt (possibly exceeding this), we could well have an agricultural surprise this year, also adding to GDP.

Star performers this past week were the Kagiso Purchasing Managers Index breaching 60 and new car sales up 21%.

The Kagiso index, after extremely sharp falls in late 2008, is now belatedly showing a steep rise, tracing a sharp V-pattern.

Manufacturing order flow must be recovering strongly, with the outlook looking more normal than at any time these past 18 months (i...