The Rex Column

The Rex Column : Latest Posts

09 March 2010 00:09

The worst is over

Now the South African economy can catch up, argues Cees Bruggemans.

JOHANNESBURG - Our decline into recession was abrupt. We fell deep, perked up late and now surge belatedly in places as we play catch up off sometimes very low bases.

Still makes growth performance feel good where it shows.

Although expectations about World Cup foreign visitors are being revised lower, there will still be a party atmosphere this winter, adding to GDP.

Also, with so much summer rain, up country looking very green and the maize crop already estimated at 13mt (possibly exceeding this), we could well have an agricultural surprise this year, also adding to GDP.

Star performers this past week were the Kagiso Purchasing Managers Index breaching 60 and new car sales up 21%.

The Kagiso index, after extremely sharp falls in late 2008, is no...

Read post

03 March 2010 13:29

Lessons for SA from Greece

Greece has overnight become an example of what can go wrong.

All of a sudden a new benchmark has entered the global picture. Greece has overnight become an example of what can go wrong. It may be a useful mirror.

South Africa runs little danger of being another Greece, right? Our national debt isn't 115% of GDP (ours at the low point a year ago was only 23%, one-fifth of Greece's). Our budget deficit this past year was 7.3% of GDP (only just over half Greece's 13%). And our tax collection today is the most efficient part of government, hardly the story one hears about Greece.

But these aren't the only benchmarks to use when assessing us or considering our long-term sustainability.

By all accounts, Greece has had a grand time since it joined the European moneta...

Read post

02 March 2010 01:03

Another risky year unfolding

Not everything is running as smoothly as the 2009 revival seemed to promise.

JOHANNESBURG - If you thought 2008 was exciting (Polokwane fallout, Eskom blackouts, inflation bulges, the Reserve Bank's rate shocks, global financial crises, recession), this year is also shaping up as rather exciting.

It turned out 2009 was perhaps the eye of the storm. Perhaps marked by recession, but there was eventually the start of recovery from 3Q2009. And it was preceded by strong revival in the rand and equity markets from fear-depressed levels, with even nominal house prices starting to rebound from midyear.

But on entering 2010, in which we will finally host the FIFA World Cup, not everything seems to be running as smoothly as the 2009 revival seemed to promise.

Globally an awful lot of caution appears to have re-emerged in financial markets...

Read post