Cees thinks the firming rand will persist through next year.

HILTON TARRANT: Cees Bruggemans is the chief economist at FNB. Cees, the manufacturing data for September out today - down 11.4%, from a  revised negative 15.2% in August. Output, though, up 3.1% in the month. At last a little positive news?

CEES BRUGGEMANS: Yes, although one has to be careful, I think, how you interpret the detail. There was quite a dip in August,. Month on month the decline in August was nearly 3%, and in September it basically came back 3% month on month. And when you go into the detail, you find that the same sectors that went down in August by quite a percentage actually by a similar percentage came back in September. We are talking primarily food and beverages, textiles and footwear as subsectors, the petroleum chemical rubber and plastics sectors, basic iron and steel, electrical machinery - those specific sectors made quite a dip in August and then came back in September. But in an overall sense, when you then look at the statistics, you find that the great fall happened in the course of last year and early this year. A trough was reached in April and since then production is now up about 4% since that trough. But that was after about an 18% decline in the period between the first half of last year and April this year. So yes, we are up from the floor, but it remains a very modest recovery at this point in time.

HILTON TARRANT: And probably into the future as well?

CEES BRUGGEMANS: At this point in time there is little evidence that things are accelerating at any pace, so yes - although in the various sectors you do have these ups and downs. In an overall sense, it remains a very much sideways movement with a slight upward bias.

HILTON TARRANT: There are also some concerns into next year around the potential electricity constraints we might see again.

CEES BRUGGEMANS: Yes, that is in a general sense, of course. The electricity output has come back quite nicely after the 10% decline in the course of last year, and in that respect by early next year we basically should be in the same position that we were in the first half of last year. So that constraint that existed then - and it presumably hasn't changed too much - is effectively coming back, and that has implications especially for sectors with high electricity usage like mining, but also certain types of manufacturing sectors.

HILTON TARRANT: Cees, if we look at manufacturing, some more headwinds from the rand. We saw the rand weaken considerably against the dollar and other currencies, but it's come back again. We are right back to where we started a couple of months ago.

CEES BRUGGEMANS: Yes. And for me it's the same fundamental situation internationally, where you have the major central banks essentially at a near-zero interest rate. They continue to grab a lot of liquidity, cash earns very little, and that is encouraging renewed risk appetite. But of course the developing part of the world, emerging markets, are showing growth and that is then the more attractive destination for some of that liquidity. And in these circumstances we are in any case then seeing capital inflows and that tends to firm the currency over time. But also the same processes have weakened the dollar and are firming the gold price, and those factors are also having an impact on the currency. So, especially looking forward, I do not expect these international conditions to change too much to next year, so we may have a continuous process of a firming bias to the currency for the time being. It's so difficult to say where this will end up, but I hardly think we have reached some kind of plateau. Essentially the firming rand condition is a reality and will remain so I think through next year.

HILTON TARRANT: Cees Bruggemans is chief economist at FNB.

• Subscribe to a daily email of transcripts from Moneyweb Radio - click here

COMMENTS

View disclaimer

 

responses to this article

Name
Subject
Comment

View disclaimer