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Predicted 68.1% probability that Standard Bank will deliver on growth implied

How does the bank compare to its peers?

A Moneyweb article published on June 1 states that Standard Bank said it expects to report an increase of 40% rise in profit for the six months to June 30, 2021, which can be attributed to the signs of recovery in the local economy.

The bank reports that in the four-month period to April 30, mortgage, vehicle and asset finance disbursements in South Africa were well above the same period last year, with business disbursements in double digits.

Standard Bank is Africa’s largest lender by assets and the group expects to be in a position to declare an interim dividend in August 2021.

So how does the New Age Alpha, “Avoid the Human Factor Score” view Standard Bank’s ability to deliver the growth implied on their share price?

New Age Alpha’s “Avoid the Human Factor” tool which scores over 6 000 shares globally including many JSE listed shares, provides a score for Standard Bank of 31.9%.

This score of 31.9% indicates that Standard Bank has a 31.9% probability of NOT delivering on the growth implied on their current share price. This probability can be turned over to state that Standard Bank has a 68.1% probability of DELIVERING the growth implied by its share price.

We would therefore expect Standard Bank to be able to deliver the interim dividend as announced in the above-mentioned article.

We at Global & Local Asset Management use the “Avoid the Human Factor” strategy to manage our Collective Investment Scheme portfolios. The strategy focuses on managing portfolios like an actuary and not a portfolio manager.

The strategy comprises developing probabilities which indicate the chance of a listed company NOT being able to achieve the growth implied by its current share price.

The probability used the only two things we know for sure about a listed company: the current share price and the profitability of a company as reported in the published financial results. From these two data inputs, we can calculate the probability of the company being able to produce the results implied in the share price based on whether the company has done this in the past 16 reporting periods.

Simply put, the lower the Human Factor Score a listed share has, the lower the risk in holding that share. 

How does the Standard Bank Human Factor Score compare to its peers?

By using Global & Local Asset Management’s New York-based associates New Age Alpha’s online tool available here (click the New Age Alpha banner), we can see that, as mentioned, Standard Bank has a Human Factor Score of 31.9%, but Absa has a Human Factor Score of 81.1% and Nedbank 90.2%.

Hence, we can say that according to the current Human Factor Score, we would rather hold Standard Bank shares rather than Absa or Nedbank.

We must add that at Global & Local Asset Management, we do realise that share investing cannot always be this simplified as there might be many other factors to consider when investing in listed shares.

Neither are we advocating that Standard Bank, Absa or in fact Nedbank are good shares for individual investors to buy now or even at a later stage as this article is not about providing advice to individual investors.

Using a probability-based approach to portfolio management  

Using a probability-based approach to stock selection, we identify and avoid the risks present when share investors interpret vague and ambiguous information inherent in share prices in a systematically incorrect way.

The Human Factor Score measures the probability of the listed company generating the growth implied in its current share price.

The approach taken by Global & Local Asset Management is not to manage portfolios like a portfolio manager but rather to adopt actuarial techniques to asset management.

If you would like to know more about how the Human Factor score tool works and how we “Avoid the Losers”, then please contact us at Global & Local Asset Management.

Disclosures

Global & Local Investment Advisors (Pty) Ltd is a registered financial services provider in terms of the Financial Advisory and Intermediary Services Act (FAIS). Global & Local Investment Advisors (Pty) Ltd holds FSP license number 43286.

Global & Local Asset Management (Pty) Ltd. Reg. Number: 2018/580284/07

Global & Local Asset Management is an authorised juristic representative of Global & Local Investment Advisors (PTY) Ltd FSCA License Number: 43286

Any investment performance figures quoted herein are for illustrative purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice.

Investment advice can be provided by Global & local Investment Advisors (Pty) Ltd but only after an analysis has been conducted of the investor’s current financial circumstances and investment portfolio, only then will a recommendation be provided based on that investor’s own circumstances by Global & Local Investment Advisors (Pty) Ltd.

New Age Alpha refers to the New Age Alpha separate but affiliated entities, generally, rather than to one particular entity. These entities are New Age Alpha LLC, New Age Alpha Advisors, LLC (“New Age Alpha Advisors”) and New Age Tau, LLC.

Investment advice is offered through New Age Alpha Advisors, LLC a wholly-owned subsidiary of New Age Alpha LLC.

New Age Alpha Advisors is an investment advisor registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. New Age Alpha Advisors, located in the State of New York, only transacts business in those states in which it is properly registered or qualifies for an applicable exemption or exclusion from such state’s registration requirements.

Past performance is not indicative of future results. Current and future results may be lower or higher than those shown. Therefore, no current or prospective client should assume that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy (including the investments and/or investment strategies recommended and/or purchased by New Age Alpha), or an Index, product, or strategy made reference to directly or indirectly in this firm overview, will be profitable or equal to corresponding indicated performance levels. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that any specific investment will either be suitable or profitable for a client’s investment portfolio. Historical performance results for investment indexes and/or categories generally do not reflect the deduction of transaction and/or custodial charges or the deduction of an investment management fee, the incurrence of which would have the effect of decreasing historical performance results. Returns for one year or less are not annualised but calculated as cumulative returns.

No client or prospective client should assume that any information presented in this firm overview serves as the receipt of, or a substitute for, personalized individual advice from New Age Alpha or any other investment professional. Any charts, graphs or tables used in this firm overview are for illustrative purposes only and should not be construed as providing investment advice. Information contained herein does not reflect the actual performance of New Age Alpha’s products or portfolios. All research and data is simulated and should not be considered indicative of the skill of New Age Alpha. The research data presented has been calculated by applying each Index strategy backwards in time and is not a contemporaneous record of actual assets managed by New Age Alpha.

All New Age Alpha trademarks are owned by New Age Alpha LLC. S&P® is a registered trademark of Standard & Poor’s Financial Services LLC (SPFS). All other company or product names mentioned herein, including S&P®, are the property of their respective owners and should not be deemed to be an endorsement of any New Age Alpha product or strategy. This firm overview is limited to providing general information about New Age Alpha and its investment advisory services. It is for informational purposes only and should not be construed by a client or a prospective client as a solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect transactions in securities, or the rendering of personalized investment advice. New Age Alpha’s specific advice is given only within the context of its contractual agreements with each client. Investment advice may only be rendered after the delivery of Form ADV Part 2 (an investment advisor’s disclosure document) and the execution of an investment agreement by the client and New Age Alpha. New Age Alpha’s Form ADV Part 2 and descriptions and summary annual reports or its composites are available upon request.

ADVISOR PROFILE

Mauro Forlin

Global & Local Asset Management

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I doubt it very much SBK will increase profit by 40% by end June

What about the third Covid-19 wave and 94% of South Africans struggling to pay their bills?

Std Bank is top heavy on A-Type execs and they just cannot be objective, especially in such twisted times.

They forgot about the Covid-19 third wave .

End of comments.

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