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This year’s best and worst JSE stocks

The three best-performing shares YTD all come from the gold sector – Anchor Capital.
Image: Moneyweb

The FTSE/JSE All Share Index ended October 4.8% in the red (-9.5% year-to-date), as the local market tracked major global equity markets lower. Among the index’s large-cap constituents, British American Tobacco (-13.4% month-on-month), BHP Group (-13.0% MoM), Richemont (-9.9% MoM), Glencore (-8.0% MoM), and Annheuser Busch InBev (-7.0% MoM), recorded significant share prices drops, while Naspers and Prosus rose by 6.8% and 5.5% MoM, respectively.

The Resi-10 plummeted 11.4% MoM (-3.9% YTD), followed by the Fini-15, which was down 6.1% MoM (-39.7% YTD). The Indi-25 closed in positive territory, recording a slight gain of 0.3% MoM (+6.0% YTD), pulled higher by positive performances from Naspers and Prosus.

The rand ended the month at $16.24/US$1 – up about 3% vs the greenback, although YTD the local unit is still down about 16% against the dollar.

Top-20 YTD performers (to end October 2020)

Share Market Cap % change
DRDGold R15.3bn 136.4%
Pan African Resources R9.4bn 94.4%
Gold Fields R152.5bn 80.1%
Cartrack Holdings R12.1bn 66.5%
Textainer Group Holdings R12.5bn 64.6%
Harmony Gold R48.1bn 55.8%
Prosus NV R2.6tn 54.4%
African Rainbow Minerals R50.9bn 39.0%
Naspers N-shares R1.4tn 38.0%
Blue Label Telecoms R3.2bn 36.8%
Sibanye Stillwater R137.3bn 30.8%
Northam Platinum R79.0bn 25.2%
Royal Bafokeng Platinum R15.2bn 18.3%
AngloGold Ashanti R154.3bn 16.5%
Allied Electronics Corporation A-shares R10.7bn 15.4%
Kumba Iron Ore R154.7bn 15.2%
Multichoice Group R59.3bn 15.0%
Afrimat R5.4bn 14.5%
Omnia Holdings R6.4bn 12.6%
African Oxygen R8.2bn 11.4%

Source: Anchor/Bloomberg

While gold fell for a second straight month in October, the price of the yellow metal is still up 23.8% YTD, on the back of increased global risk brought about by the pandemic, and continued monetary stimulus pushing gold’s rally as a risk hedge.

It is therefore not surprising that the three best-performing shares YTD all come from the gold sector (and are unchanged for a fourth-consecutive month). Overall, for the year to end October, five of the ten best-performing stocks are gold and platinum counters – DRD Gold, Pan African Resources, Goldfields, Harmony Gold, and ARM.

DRD Gold (+136.4%) was once again the best-performing share YTD and, in October, it reported a 45% rise in its gold production for the quarter ended 30 September. The company flagged a potential interim dividend as sales jumped by more than half in its 1Q21 and the gold price topped R1.00 million/kg. DRD Gold was followed by Pan African Resources (+94.4%), and Gold Fields (+80.1%).

Cartrack, Textainer, and Harmony Gold are up 66.5%, 64.6%, and 55.8% YTD, respectively. In mid-October, Cartrack, the fleet-management and stolen-vehicle recovery services provider, said that it has more than quadrupled its interim dividend after reporting that the Covid-19 pandemic failed to dull interest in its software. The Group opted for an interim dividend of ZAc87/share for the six months to end-August – up about 30% YoY, while revenue grew by 16% YoY to R1.08 billion. Cartrack also said that it had added 13% more subscribers despite the pandemic, bringing the total number to 1.17 million.

Harmony Gold was followed by Prosus (+54.4% YTD), which saw its share price jump 5.5% in October. Last week, Prosus announced a $5 billion (R82 billion) share buyback programme whereby Prosus, the consumer internet arm of Naspers (+38.0% YTD), will buy back shares as it looks to help close the gap between the value of its underlying assets and its shares.

ARM and Blue Label Telecoms rounded out the 10 best-performing shares YTD, with share price gains of 39.0% and 36.8%, respectively.

Bottom-20 YTD performers (to end October 2020)

Share Market Cap % change
City Lodge Hotels R1.5bn -96.5%
Hammerson R13.1bn -93.9%
Nampak R586m -87.6%
PPC R844m -78.8%
Fortress Reit B R16.9bn -77.9%
Vukile Property Fund R4.6bn -75.3%
Attacq R2.3bn -74.9%
Redefine Properties R11.5bn -73.7%
Sasol R52.7bn -72.3%
Tsogo Sun Gaming R3.6bn -71.8%
ArcelorMittal South Africa R398m -70.6%
Hospitality Property Fund R1.3bn -69.8%
Accelerate Property Fund R549m -68.6%
Echo Polska Properties NV R5.2bn -66.4%
Sun International R3.6bn -66.2%
Octodec Investments R1.4bn -65.5%
Tsogo Sun Hotels R1.7bn -65.3%
Brait SE R4.8bn -64.7%
Hyprop Investments R5.1bn -64.2%
Ascendis Health R249m -63.8%

Source: Anchor/Bloomberg

October’s 20 worst-performing shares YTD were basically unchanged from September, with only Sasol (-72.3% YTD) and Ascendis Health (-63.8% YTD) entering the ring, while Arrowhead Properties and EOH Holdings exited. In addition, ten of the 20 worst-performing shares were from the beleaguered listed property sector.

City Lodge (-96.5% YTD), which has seen limited trading in its shares over the past seven months, claimed the worst-performer title for a third month in a row. This, as the Covid-19 induced lockdowns and a difficult local economic environment continued to take their toll on the company’s fortunes.

In July, City Lodge was compelled to raise R1.2 billion through a rights issue in order to pay down debt and prop up its balance sheet. This after asking its bankers in June for an additional R200 million, which pushed the company over agreed lending limits.

City Lodge was followed by UK and European shopping centre owner, Hammerson plc (-93.9% YTD), with Nampak (-87.6% YTD) remaining in third position. In October, Hammerson, which owns shopping centres in the UK and Europe, said that rental collection was steadily improving as tenants resume operations after the lockdown. However, this was prior the UK’s announcement last week that it would be resuming lockdowns on 5 November to combat a second wave of Covid-19.

Nampak was followed by PPC (-78.8% YTD), Fortress REIT -B- (-77.9% YTD), Vukile Property Fund (-75.3% YTD), Attacq (-74.9%), and Redefine (-73.7% YTD), with Sasol (-72.3% YTD), and Tsogo Sun Gaming (-71.8% YTD), rounding out October’s ten worst-performing shares YTD.

Marco de Matos is a research analyst at Anchor Capital.

COMMENTS   5

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The best of the worst performers needs 300% next year just to get back to the starting point. Hammerson and Nampak would need 1000% to get back to start.

Yeah, bit late to cut any losses, and probably the playground of speculation now.

I am holding 3 of the top ones, including a packet full of the No.1 star performer.

Accumulated profits tipped me into the pastures greener quite recently only- I am also sitting with 2 dogs and a selection of in-betweeners.

My secret? I’m a vegeterian… I mean, a contrarian!

Pleased to be back in the black pudding for 2020 and raring to take some of those delicious divine-ends for a very happy Xmas and a “cheers” New Years.

Likewise … it’s a genius that gets a spread of local and international and metals to all perform well at the same time.

Wait. The year is not over by a long shot.

You forgot Intu properties, -100%.

Delisted.

End of comments.

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