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Safe for now from the PDAC Curse

Looking closer at volume and junior shareprices it appears PDAC did not drive equities one way or the other.

The PDAC has come and gone and junior shareprices have not yet suffered for it. In recent years market observers noted sell-offs in the junior market concomittant with PDAC, even pre-emptively. More traditionally a sell off came thereafter. In this, the jury’s still out.

To date – through PDAC – the junior market has chugged along, neither derailing nor becoming supercharged. Volumes did not pop significantly on massive moves up or down.

See: Looking for the Curse of the PDAC

The best performing juniors in recent weeks on the TSX-Venture have been the larger companies by marketcap. Comparing the top 100 juniors on the TSX-Venture by marketcap (set in January) to a much broader pool of some 1,200 juniors on the Venture, the latter outperformed the former and the S&P TSX-Venture Composite Index, which is energy heavy.

The outperformance is visible in the second chart in the relative movements of the J100 to the Venture Composite and the J1000. Moves up by Fission Uranium (~C$500 million marketcap) have helped the J100 immensely. Fission started the year near C$1 a share but by open today had reached C$1.50 a share in a week of new highs pushing its marketcap over C$500 million. Drilling results showing continuity on its Patterson Lake South uranium discovery in Canada’s Athabasca Basin are surely driving it. The guessing game here continues to center around the question size: How many pounds might Fission define?

J100 includes the top 100 juniors on the TSX Venture by marketcap as set in January 2014. The J1000 comprises 1,000-plus juniors – most but not all – on the TSX Venture. (Credit:  Kip Keen)

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