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It never rains but it pours: Sasol, coronavirus, and now Amplats

‘Force majeure’ shutdown of Amplats’ Waterval smelter complex batters its share price.
The group has indicated that its refined production for the year could be lowered by about 25% as a result of the explosion. Image: Waldo Swiegers, Bloomberg

Anglo American Platinum’s (Amplats’) share price is down more than a third from its R1 395 high achieved just two weeks ago, bringing to an end one of the most magnificent runs for shareholders in recent mining history.

On Friday the company declared ‘force majeure’ (an unexpected calamity) as the reason for the shutdown of its Waterval smelter complex, which is likely to shave nearly one million ounces of platinum group metals (PGMs) off its 2020 production.

An explosion occurred at Phase A of the Anglo Converter Plant on February 10, forcing a shutdown of the plant and the immediate commissioning of the backup Phase B plant, which was also shut down when water was detected in the system – raising the likelihood of a second explosion. It may take 80 days to get the backup converter online, while repairs of the Phase A converter will be completed by about mid-2021.

Not that this is all entirely bad news for PGM prices, which have held reasonably firm amid the turmoil.

Palladium prices in US dollar per 100 oz

Source: Share Magic

Amplats accounts for about a quarter of global palladium supply, mainly used in the production of petrol-driven cars, and a whopping 42% of global platinum and rhodium supply. Production of palladium is likely to take a 300 000-oz hit this year, with platinum production expected to be up to 450 000 oz lower, according to a company announcement on Friday.

The Amplats announcement added to the pre-existing volatility in the PGMs sector and had a knock-on effect on Northam Platinum and Sibanye-Stillwater. Northam’s share price has also taken a hit in recent days, falling nearly 20% from its February peak. Sibanye-Stillwater’s share price looked to be in freefall last week after falling nearly a third, before bouncing slightly on the news coming out of Amplats.

Amplats Northam and Sibanye-Stillwater share prices: 1 month

Royal Bafokeng Platinum is down more than 40% in the last two weeks.

Knock-on effect

The shutdown of the Anglo Platinum converter plant had an immediate knock-on effect on other producers supplying concentrate for processing at Waterval. James Wellsted, senior vice president of investor relations at Sibanye-Stillwater, says the group has significant unutilised processing capacity at its Marikana operations (formerly Lonmin), which could provide an alternative processing option while Amplats’ converters are shut down.

In a statement on Friday the group said it has “significant spare PGM processing capacity at the Marikana operations and at the Precious Metal Refinery in Brakpan and will be assessing how best to utilise this capacity.

“We are engaging with Amplats with respect to the various alternatives and will provide a further update once we have clarity,” it said.

Sibanye-Stillwater’s Marikana and US PGM operations are not affected and will benefit from the commensurate short-term commodity price increases, due to the Amplats supply disruption.

“This is a real shock,” says Peter Major of Mergence Corporate Solutions.

“And I can’t believe the reaction in Northam, Implats’ [Impala Platinum’s] and Sibanye-Stillwater’s share prices. This comes just as all the PGMs were topping out, finally, and starting to roll over. What timing for PGM prices. Too uncanny for words. I have never seen volatility like I have seen these past six months in gold and PGM metals, let alone in gold and platinum shares.”

“It never rains but it pours,” says David Shapiro, deputy chair of Sasfin Securities. “From the coronavirus to Sasol and now Anglo Platinum, which has indicated its refined production for the year could be lowered by about 25%.”

Sasol

Sasol’s share price has been in meltdown since September 2018, when cost overruns at its Lake Charles Chemicals Project first came to light. This was followed by a poor set of results for the six months to December 2019, with earnings before interest and tax down by more than half to R9.9 billion (R20.8 billion).

Sasol share price

The impact on Amplats’ earnings before interest, depreciation and amortisation could be as high as R18 billion for the full year, though the platinum producer may have overstated the likely impact, with a view to restoring operations earlier than the projected 80 days.

In the meantime, its peers – notably Sibanye-Stillwater and Northam – can expect to pick up some of the production slack.

Listen to Nompu Siziba’s February 17 interview with outgoing Amplats CEO Chris Griffith:

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I think the “Meltdown” at Sasol will continue today.

Wonder how they will pay back their debt at this oil price? Issue shares?

Your concerned ANC government ensured with regulation 28 that your fund is probably relatively overexposed to this counter.

So you will probably participate in the big fat loss.

The good old “clever” ANC.

If the Sasol share price reflects the move on Brent Crude this morning, we can see SOL at R100. The question that comes to mind – is it a buy at R100? It showed great “value” at R630 during 2014, so maybe it will show even more “value” at R100 today?

It is a very tempting buy. Medium to long term *should* see decent recovery.

Still trying to convince myself that it is worth the gamble and pull the trigger, though…

R95-00.

R85 now with market cap below 100 Billion.

There goes the PIC money that Cosatu offered for the Eskom bailout. If you snooze you lose guys…At this rate, Eskom may even have to bail out the PIC!

It appears the biggest symptom of having coronavirus is the unfounded fear and anxiety.
Surely Xanax could be the cure?

Correct…it is laughable how some companies/businesses reacts…..just to bring into context and stay in-touch with reality…. Around 57 people are murdered in South Africa every day!

…or Beetroot, Garlic & Onions.

Is it worth the risk? I am thinking of going in.

Let me know what u decided when it’s back at R160 lol

I remember last week a bunch of commentator on here stating it was a great buy at R160.

I wonder how blue their Monday is today?

Sasol will be a great buy if they don’t need to issue shares to pay debt…

Anybody who invests in Sasol is in effect buying a Saudi Prince, an Algerian official and Vladimir Putin. What serves as the “backing” for the Sasol share price? The price of oil mostly. What determines the price of oil? OPEC mostly. Who are the largest members of OPEC? Algeria and Saudi Arabia mostly. When there is a standoff between the Saudis and Putin and they decide to protect their respective market shares by pumping oil, then Sasol nosedives.

If you can tell me how to value the word of a Saudi Prince and Vladimir Putin, and how to predict their actions, then I will be able to calculate the value of Sasol.

Do u think they’re without a hedge in these times?

Exactly that … not hedged
Investor call for tomorrow postponed to March 17
Rights issue coming

At R31,92 I would buy, who agrees.

End of comments.

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