Simon’s weekly wrap: A numbers game

This week MoneywebNOW looked at the US Fed and that country’s fourth quarter GDP data, SA’s manufacturing sector, the local CPI inflation basket and more.

I chatted with Dr Adrian Saville from Genera Capital to understand the concept of a central bank being “behind the curve” and to establish how far the US Federal Reserve was behind the curve. Saville used two different methods to determine what rates should be, considering inflation and GDP, and the answer was that they are a long way behind the curve and are unlikely to catch up any time soon. Sobering news.

Staying with the US, last week it released strong fourth quarter GDP data and I spoke with Dr Chris Harmse of CH Economics about the data. He is concerned about inflation and warns that we may need to get used to a more volatile market.

Locally, PMI data released earlier this week again gave reason for cautious optimism and I spoke with Absa head of manufacturing Justin Schmidt about the manufacturing sector. He agreed with the cautious optimism but did caution that we still have a way to go, despite lots of encouraging data points.

Statistics SA (Stats SA) has changed the CPI inflation basket, as it does every five years. This time gin made an entry, while CDs gave way to streaming services. I spoke with Patrick Kelly of Stats SA to understand the process and get details on what is in and what’s out.

Also this week:

OneLogix CEO Ian Lourens discusses its interim results results to end-November, changes in the business and expectations for the year.

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