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Charts that show SA’s recession may be over

South Africa is likely to emerge from its first recession in almost a decade as monthly indicators for the third quarter signal a modest rebound.

Recoveries in manufacturing and trade are expected to drive growth momentum in Africa’s most industrialised economy. Statistics South Africa will on December 4 publish data that economists in a Bloomberg survey expect to show gross domestic product expanded 1.9% from the previous three months.

President Cyril Ramaphosa’s rise to power as head of the ruling party in December last year and then of the country in February initially boosted sentiment and the rand following Jacob Zuma’s tenure of almost nine years. That optimism faded as economic reforms weren’t implemented fast enough to satisfy investors and global trade wars and turmoil in other emerging markets soured sentiment. The new leader has worked to eliminate policy uncertainty that’s hobbled industries such as mining and has pledged to attract $100 billion of investment.

“Perceived domestic political and policy uncertainty have been a contributing factor to South Africa’s modest economic performance,” Investec Bank economist Kamilla Kaplan said.

A contraction in output from mining, which accounts for about 7% of GDP, is expected to weigh on quarterly growth and drag on associated manufacturing and construction activities, Jason Muscat, a senior economic analyst at FirstRand’s First National Bank unit, said by phone. South Africa is the world’s biggest platinum producer and the continent’s largest source of iron ore.

Growth is likely to be underpinned by retail sales and the finance industry, he said. Updates to GDP data published in March showed what was assumed to be the previous recession — at the end of 2016 and start of 2017 — didn’t happen. There is a chance the current recession may also be “revised away,” Johann Els, an economist at Old Mutual Investment Group, said last week.

© 2018 Bloomberg L.P

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Maybe these people live on a different planet but having regard to the most precarious state of our economy due to all the theft and corruption by ANC and friend plus their populist business hostile policies, the recession has just started. Escom debt alone puts SA in untenable situation.

No, SA can beat the recession, this government is going to be left behind. I don’t care behind what, behind bars, behind their evil plots, just behind. The rest of SA is going to march on and get things going.

As long as the ANC or radicals are in power we will stay in recession.

Almost irrelevant if we grow at +1.5 or -1.5. We need much higher growth rates if we were to make a dent in unemployment and decrease inequality by growing the cake.

Sorry Bloomberg,

Spin it how you like. Recession is negative growth in real GDP (aka strip out inflation).

SA has been in recession for quite a few years now and no way out unless we grow north of 6% a year. The man on the street with no stats skill can tell you this.

Anything > 0% and < 6% is still shrinking.

Headline should be "SA has been and likely to stay in recession"

Correction: The data above is using real GDP figures but the author failed to mention it.

The 2.2% today is a step in the right direction.

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