‘We haven’t really crushed the Covid-19 curve’ – expert

SA scientists say 35 000 to 50 000 coronavirus deaths by November possible.
Image: Francesca Volpi, Bloomberg

South Africa could see up to 50 000 coronavirus deaths and as many as 3 million infections by the end of the year as the southern hemisphere winter leads to a higher rate of infection, scientific models showed on Thursday.

The country already has the highest number of infections and deaths on the continent, with more than 18,000 identified cases and 339 deaths, but a national lockdown entering its sixth week had slowed infections.

However scientists and statisticians hired by the health ministry to model the spread of the disease said the country could see between 35 000 and 50 000 coronavirus deaths by November.

“We haven’t really crushed the curve,” said one of the experts, Harry Moultrie, in a presentation shown on television. “We also have some significant concerns that because of the focus on COVID-19, this may compromise other areas like HIV and TB.”

The models, which consider best and worst scenarios, see as many 3 million possible coronavirus cases by November, while demand for hospital beds is seen peaking at 45 000, around ten times the current intensive care bed availability.

One of models showed the lockdown had reduced the rate of infection by 60%, and that since the beginning of May, when lockdown restrictions were eased, that had fallen to 30%. ]

“With the lockdown we were creating a physical barrier that prevents the virus from moving,” said Minister of Health Zweli Mkhize.

“The lockdown had a particular value. Now we are trying to move to a slightly different strategy which is the risk-adjusted approach.”

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Just get on with it and stop running models.

Its much like accounting. WHAT NUMBER DO YOU WANT??

You run it and change the input until you get what you want. Any excuse.

“Maybe, possibly, not sure”

Just pulling these numbers from someone’s a$$

Too many factors …. no one really knows.

Even the Minista….does not believe the expert “Scientists”.

The reporting lacks context. It does not say many people would have died anyway over that period, as a form of comparison.

Also, the headlines scream out the worst scenario.

Neither does it say what the models have been based on. A number of countries (perhaps SA as well) followed the now tainted Imperial College model.

These reports do not tell you that 61 000 people die of TB every year.

All the mainstream SA news sites are promoting a narrative, they are not journalists at all. One wonders why no views from the many experts that use actual data are interviewed or debated. Something stinks to high heaven.

“South Africa could see up to 50 000 coronavirus deaths”

What is the context of that estimate? Is it the 95% confidence level?i.e. there is a 95% probability that the number of deaths will 50,000 or less, or is it the average (50% probability that the number of deaths will be 50,000 or less).

Without the statistical context of the number, it is pretty much meaningless except for a headline and something to anchor to.

Taking into account the W.C.’s statistics, especially from Khayelitsha, the lock down did nothing to slow down the rapid transmission of the virus. If anything, it locked up people 24/7 for 5 weeks in a crammed petri dish, without water and sanitation.

Are these the same people who ill advised the government to go into a lock down in the first place?

Current (yesterday’s data) shows 369 deaths. To get from 369 to 50000 by the end of the year, the no. of deaths need to increase exponentially. We have left that exponential curve around the last week of April to first week of May already.

Currently, the number of infections/deaths are following the same bending curve – like all other countries, including Sweden’s with noy having any clamp down, whatsoever.

The curve is flattening out already. It’s just going to take longer to reach that asymptotic value on that same curve.

Seriously, I don’t know what type of modelling these so-called “experts” are using.

Witches of Salem type panic.
All this fear-mongering is making me concerned…that these experts and politicians are creating another prophetess Nongqawuse type moment in history.
The measures won’t alter the path of the invader at all, but you will destroy everybody’s livelihood.

Losing your land was / Covid-19 is, a real problem. Killing all the cattle wasn’t / killing all the jobs isn’t, the solution!

End of comments.

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