South Africa will likely experience a weaker ‘third wave’ of coronavirus infections because studies in January and February show that 30-40% of the population has already been infected, the South African Covid-19 Modelling Consortium said.
Depending on the strength of the government response to a rise in infections, the number of deaths from a third wave could range between 7 800 and 70 200, the consortium, which is linked to the National Institute of Communicable Diseases, said.
That would compare with 40 000 deaths in the initial wave of infections and 88 500 in the second wave, the consortium said in a statement on Monday.
The consortium uses its own estimate of deaths both in and out of hospital, and it is significantly higher than the official death toll of 54 417.
© 2021 Bloomberg L.P.