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WHO warns of cycle of virus lockdowns following hasty exits

Transition strategy vital to avoid repeated quarantines.
A pedestrian wearing a protective face mask passes closed stalls at the Ballaro open-air market in Palermo, Italy, on Wednesday, April 1, 2020. Image: Bloomberg

The World Health Organization warned countries against abruptly dropping restrictions aimed at slowing the new coronavirus’s march around the world, saying that careful planning is needed to prevent an economically destructive cycle of repeated lockdowns.

A transition strategy is vital to avoid repeated quarantines, Mike Ryan, the head of the WHO’s emergencies program, said at a press briefing in Geneva. “If we lurch from lockdown to poor control back to lockdown and back to poor control, that is not what anybody needs right now,” Ryan said.

Countries around the world have frozen public life to try to halt the spread of the virus, which has infected more than 1 million people around the world, killing more than 56 000 of them. The control measures have challenged economies, with more than 90 countries already seeking financial help related to the pandemic, according to the International Monetary Fund. The WHO also said it’s suspending its house-to-house polio vaccination program because of the risk of contagion.

Public health officials have warned that simply quelling the current wave of infections won’t be enough to stop the pandemic. As long as the virus lingers and there’s a large number of people who haven’t yet been exposed, there’s a risk of resurgence.

Stop and start

Stop-and-start lockdowns will be even more damaging to the economy, Ryan warned. He called for massive investment in tracing the contacts of infected people as well as a “comprehensive architecture of public health and health care” to address outbreaks when they emerge.

“If we want to reach that situation where we can live with this virus, and have our economies back on track, we have to make those other investments,” he said.

The WHO also moderated its stance on wearing masks. While home-made masks and cloth mouth coverings won’t prevent individuals from becoming infected, they may make it less likely that an infected person — who might not be aware of their infection — will spread the virus to others, Ryan said. Medical masks and respirators should be reserved for frontline health workers and others caring for the infected, he said.

© 2020 Bloomberg

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Exactly. Don’t call it summer by sighting the first swallow

But the WHO recommended keeping borders open with no travel restrictions until early March.

Are they finally admitting that they failed to prescribe the wrong solution big brother told them to use?

Read something very interesting this morning. Testing for antibodies might show what is actually going on. But if so many millions have had the virus already surly a different approach can be taken in getting the economies going again.

See below.

“Italy: the real number of COVID-19 cases in the country could be 5,000,0000 (compared to the 119,827 confirmed ones) according to a study which polled people with symptoms who have not been tested, and up to 10,000,000 or even 20,0000,000 after taking into account asymptomatic cases, according to Carlo La Vecchia, a Professor of Medical Statistics and Epidemiology at the Statale di Milano University.

This number would still be insufficient to reach herd immunity, which would require 2/3 of the population (about 40,000,000 people in Italy) having contracted the virus [source].

The number of deaths could also be underestimated by 3/4 (in Italy as well as in other countries) [source], meaning that the real number of deaths in Italy could be around 60,000.

If these estimates were true, the mortality rate from COVID-19 would be much lower (around 25 times less) than the case fatality rate based solely on laboratory-confirmed cases and deaths, since it would be underestimating cases (the denominator) by a factor of about 1/100 and deaths by a factor of 1/4.”

EXACTLY. According to the coked up Hyena`s (Global media) and the likes of Neil Ferguson (Imperial college of London), without listing his career list of epic fails and previous apocalyptic predictions, that turned out to be literally nothing. I believe Covid 19 will be the same. He has already re-stated his figures i think 3 times – the panic that got the UK government to switch the lights off, was that 500,000 additional people would die. Now it has dropped to 20,000 and they believe the true (COVID Only not some other complication ie the mass of ‘would have died anyway’ which is huge % of the deaths that are occuring) deaths when all is said and done will be maybe 5,000.

Some of you might say but the UK went over 4,000 deaths tonight – correct. But a week ago they also started counting the deaths differently – including homes for the dying, hospices by definition the same thing and homes for palliative care (read hopeless cases). So naturally the figures jumped. But remove these deaths, and all those with other conditions, yes being 97yrs old is a good innings and old age above a point is a condition, morbid obesity – BMI over 30 – 35 another. The final number should be those that died as healthy individuals, cut down in their prime, for no other reason than they were more susceptible or vulnerable, genetically or otherwise, then the figures will be maybe 10% of what is being reported – but this is discussed no where, it does not sell papers, it is not click bait and does not have you glued to the TV. We all know people that just never get the flu and remain almost stubbornly healthy even in the worst out breaks, likewise, we all know those people that if there is a bug going around they get it and are flattened by it. Covid 19 is no different in my opinion.

There is a GIGANTIC difference between dying with Covid 19 in your system and dying as a direct result of only Covid 19. Ask the Italian family that put a 93yr old great grandfather after 2 heart attacks and 2 strokes on life support in October last year, being told he could die at any moment (obviously), he actually lasted until the 4th of March but finally passed on, but his death certificate states cause of death Covid 19 because he had contracted it and he died with it in his system, he and thousands of others all over the world should not be in these statistics. Italy has over 11,000 deaths a week in normal times, or over 1600 a day. The USA closer to 60,000 a week or about 8,600 a day. A huge deal was made when we crossed the 1 million cases worldwide in 190 countries this week and now over 60,000 deaths – so what!? The USA flu season just finished officially on 31.03.20. Current final estimated flu cases in the preceeding 6mths were 39 million USA only and 68,000 deaths USA only. Covid 19 cases are 1% of this at the moment and deaths about 8%.

In South Africa the cure is already far worst than the disease could ever be. In fact the arrival of Covid 19 was manna from heaven for the ANC government – just like it was for the EU. After 26 years the apartheid excuse had run paper thin, we were already talking more about and blaming state capture for the dire state of our economy and SOEs – now it will be Covid 19 for the next 2 decades. RSA has become a police state over night and CR has proven he is no different with his heavy handed tactics than Museveni and Kenyatta.

When will someone tell him that it is impossible to create social distancing in the town ships and even more so in informal settlements, you are actually creating viral load hot spots by cramming people into tiny areas – 20 to a shack in some places. If they were working they would not be at home 20 to a room, social distancing in South Africa is actually more achievable by letting those that can work, work in the cities and factories, where they were – by forcing millions home a shack that was once maybe looked after by the grandma and or grandpa whilst looking after toddlers, while the adults worked a few 100kms away for sometimes weeks or months on end, now are all piled on top of each other in a shack in townships where the police and military fear to tread anyway.

The last fact which has to take the cake and makes this whole lock down a total farce, is the concessions granted the taxi industry. 9 people max to a taxi including the driver 9!!!! – you must be s#!tting me. please advise how anyone of those people can practice social distance 9 up inside a taxi. But it is justified because they cannot upset that industry as they fear that industry – so if that industry makes a mockery of any lock down and social distancing, why shut down any industry at all, as any good being done by the right hand is being undone 20 times over by the left hand.

How does then banning jogging or cycling to keep fit stack up logically against this type of mentality selectively applied to taxis. Or if i drive a car with my mother or any second person in it, the back seat nogal, she/ he must be able to produce a separate receipt to prove she to had a reason to be on the road or be subjected to a spot cash fine … my God you cannot make this stuff up, that is not open to corruption at all as we all know our metro cops are the very bastion of honesty and morality.

Week one done – how much more of a pounding can the people take, the markets have already spoken – but by the end of this coming week i would not be at all surprised to start seeing some serious civil unrest erupting, although how would we know, as the reporters are only allowed to cover what they are allowed to cover or told to cover …

PS – the WHO and the Imperial College of London are private organisations and exist only because of generous donations and grants – so they are talking their books, why are the top employees and doctors in these organisations some of the highest paid health practitioners/ researchers / professors in the world. At times like this they get money thrown at them – Michael Bloomberg just donated $1.8 billion to John Hopkins for what. Remember never let a good crisis go to waste, especially if you are a collapsing government – Imperial and John Hopkins have produced doomsday models for every country on earth – i have seen their Mozambique model, swallowed hook line and sinker by the powers that be but they need it as much as SA – projected additional deaths in their model is 65,000 – so far they have 10 cases yes 10 cases and no deaths – yet they followed CR into the Abyss.

End of comments.

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