You are currently viewing our desktop site, do you want to visit our Mobile web app instead?
Complete our online survey and
get 10% discount on our
Insider Gold annual subscription.
 Registered users can save articles to their personal articles list. Login here or sign up here

Climate change will cripple economies regardless of countries’ wealth – report

Impoverished, warm countries will suffer the most in a warming planet.

Climate change will damage the economies of countries whether they are rich or poor, hot or cold by the year 2100, economists said in a new report, dispelling the notion that impoverished, warm countries will suffer the most on a warming planet.

Researchers who examined data from 174 countries over 50 years found that persistent temperature changes above or below a country’s historical norm adversely affected economic growth, regardless of how warm a country is.

The United States could see a 10% loss in gross domestic product (GDP) without significant policy change.

“In the UK we had the hottest day (ever) recorded a few days ago and infrastructure came to a halt,” Dr. Kamiar Mohaddes, a co-author and a professor of economics at Cambridge University told the Thomson Reuters Foundation on Tuesday.

“Trains aren’t running, people aren’t coping, and therefore productivity and economic growth falls.”

Research has often focused on short-term devastation to poor, warm countries, but the report suggested that wealth and cooler temperatures are no protection from climate change’s economic toll if major policy changes are not adopted.

In a “business as usual” scenario where climate change-causing greenhouse gas emissions are not drastically lowered, the average global temperatures will increase by 4 degrees Celsius (7.2 F) by 2100.

That would bring more than a 7% loss in world GDP per capita, said the study published on Monday by the US National Bureau of Economic Research, a non-profit economic research organisation.

The 2015 Paris Agreement, a global pact to fight climate change agreed to by nearly 200 countries, aims to keep the Earth’s temperature rise well below 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 F), striving for 1.5 degrees (2.7 F).

But even that would require a radical reduction of climate-warming greenhouse gas emissions, a landmark UN report found last year.

The economists’ research focused on the United States due to its varied climates, and found that ignoring the Paris accord’s goals would affect industries from manufacturing to agriculture, costing the United States more than 10% of its GDP per capita.

“The average American household will be poorer,” Mohaddes said, and noted other industrialised countries could be similarly impacted.

Canada, which is warming twice as fast as the rest of the world, could expect a 13% loss in income, while Switzerland could see a 12% cut and India would se a 10% GDP per capita drop.

But adhering to the Paris Agreement goals could hold the loss in the United States to under 2%, the report said.

US President Donald Trump vowed in June, 2017 to pull the United States out of the international agreement, dealing a major blow to the effort to affect climate change. The earliest that could happen is November, 2020.

The report also suggested that while some countries are likely to adapt to climate change, they are unlikely to act in time to ward off all the negative effects to their economies.

“We need to have much stronger mitigation,” said Mohaddes. “If we do commit to Paris, the losses are substantially lower. It’s not too late.”

Researchers from the universities of Cambridge, Southern California, Johns Hopkins, and the National Tsing hua University in Taiwan as well as the International Monetary Fund, contributed to the report. 

Get access to Moneyweb's financial intelligence and support quality journalism for only
R63/month or R630/year.
Sign up here, cancel at any time.


You must be signed in to comment.


FAKE NEWS !!!!!!!!!!! There is no empirical evidence of Global Warming (OOOOOOOPS) I meant climate change (OOOOOOOPS) I meant climate resilience.This was an idea of a group of people who figured out a way to BLEED countries of their money under the auspices of helping the planet AND it is politically correct to jump on this band wagon. It’s sad that under-educated people just climb on. Here’s some food for thought. Google
Global Warming vs. Solar Cooling: The Showdown Begins in 2020

Just FYI, solar activity is lower today than it was in the 1950’s
And its still warmer.

These are modeled temperatures:
The GISS Surface Temperature Analysis (GISTEMP)3 is an open-source model from the environmental sciences for estimating the global temperature.

Average temps in the Lower Troposph. have increased 0.38° since 1980!
That is a measured temp. vs all those estimates and models from the GW profiteers.

A satellite-based data record starting in late 1978 shows that indeed rapid changes have been occurring in the Arctic, where the ice coverage has been declining at a substantial rate. In contrast, in the Antarctic the sea ice coverage has been increasing.

I am well over 70, so I heard plenty of doom-and-gloom forecasts during my lifetime. Here are the scariests:
In the 60s we were told about the next ice age coming soon.
In the early 70s we were going to run out of raw materials. The most famous was the Club of Rome “The Limits to Growth”. It forecast that before the year 2000 we would run out of several minerals, including gold and worldwide starvation thanks to exponential population growth. They even forecast food riots in the USA. Food is much cheaper now than in the mid 70s and instead of starvation more and more people are overweight.
In the 80s AIDS became the big thing and experts forecast depopulation of entire African countries. I do not know any African country which has a lower population now than in 1980. In the same decade the Ethiopian famine started Bob Geldorf’s Band Aid charity, and today Ethiopia’s population is triple what it was in the 80s.
In the 90s we had the Y2K panic, some “experts” told us that civilisation will collapse because of it. Countries and companies spent a fortune which was great for the IT industry, but nothing happened in countries where they simply ignored it. I remember flights were cancelled, train networks stopped because of the “danger”.
In the new millennium global warming became the new “end of civilisation” panic. By now sea levels were promised to be much higher and people were supposedly starving to death because of collapse of agriculture in several countries, but it seems the population keeps on growing in the supposedly most effected African countries. We were told that most of the Maldives islands would be under water by now and as far as I know not a single one disappeared.
After all these why should I trust the latest global warming forecast?

…..and the Viking’s farm cereal in Greenland 1000 years ago when temperatures were almost a degree warmer than now

Sure….and the next 70 years will look just like the last 70. And the world’s population can double from here, no problem.

And co2 is good for trees, and it doesn’t matter if the Amazon’s burning because who needs trees anyway.

And we will never run out of oil and coal because oil rises up from the middle of the earth as fast as we burn it.

What else am I missing here?

The last tree died 2002 in Germany and since 2009 it was not snowing anymore. The Maldives are about 1m below sea level by now, and on top of that we are all going to die, sooner or later..

Researchers who examined data .

To be on that team require a mindset only comparable with preachers of religion.

Another profitable doomsday report for global warming.

The goal of the globalists is for the nations to cede sovereignty to a world government. If you think I am a crazy tinfoil-hat-wearing conspiracy theorist, then read the Copenhagen Draft Treaty. Then we chat again.

So global warming is just a big conspiracy to bring about a world goverment with some new taxes?

Is that it?

Hey Richard you still owe me a response as to your key climate skeptic Joanne Nova agreeing with scientific consensus that Co2 causes warming.

PJJ I have never met/ come across a skeptic (Jo Nova included) who does not believe that CO2 causes warming. This is a classic straw man argument. Anyone familiar with the tenets of basic infrared spectroscopy (that would include me) will tell you that this is true. Central to the question is how much? Models on their own indicate about 1.2K for doubling of CO2. The only way this can be made to be catastrophic is with the feedbacks. The feedback mechanism is borrowed from electronics but is applied wrongly. Hence the reason climate will not be catastrophic.

You are 100% correct BUT TRUMP stopped it and now all these countries being flooded with ILLEGAL ALIENS are stopping now & fighting back as their countries turn into “No Go” zones! Look what Merkel did to Germany now????


No straw manning going on here, this is a quote from our previous discussion in which you indicate as much :

“There is no evidence in geological history that CO2 ever drove warming.”

Would you not say that, that would cause anybody to think that you don’t believe Co2 causes warming?

Navigator Their is merit in the thought.

Navigator There is merit in the thought. sorry typo.

Speculation that Earth may be over-due for an Ice Age cold snap:

EXTRACT: “While scientists know that the Earth goes through periods of warming and cooling, and that the human contribution to climate change is now causing more dramatic warming, not everything is clear. Hall said scientists are still trying to understand the Earth’s “natural climate variability” in order to better predict the effects of human-driven climate change.

One such effect may be that human-caused warming is delaying an overdue ice age. Hall’s research dated the beginning of the end of the last ice age to 18,000 years ago, but “interglacials” — the periods of relative warmth between glacial periods of an ice age—usually last only 15,000 years, meaning we’re overdue for another cold snap.

Hall emphasized that this hypothesis hasn’t been proven but it is one possible effect of humanity’s massive release of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere over the last two centuries.

“Eventually, the Earth will do what the Earth wants to do,” Hall said. “If it’s scheduled to go into an ice age it eventually will. But it might be delayed” due to warming temperatures.”

o 0 o

Another article:

Interesting read. Predicts that next ice age could be pushed out to 100,000years ahead.

In the meantime, we can start growing (sub-tropical) crops on Antarctica “very soon”…., like bananas, avos and coconut palms 😉

The only things which are going to cripple economies are the taxes and emission certificates and those people who make a living on the Global Warming BS, like the author of this baseless article, Al Gore and IPCC “researchers”.
The average temperatures dont follow the models of the GW apostles and have not changed for 40 years.
Serious scientists openly question the competence of those CG expert.

If anything we might face a new Little Ice Age.

97% of climate scientists agree with the consensus that the earth is warming, So I guess that you believe that only those other 3% are the “serious scientists”?

Load All 20 Comments
End of comments.





Follow us:

Search Articles:Advanced Search
Click a Company: