Covid-19: B4SA foresees up to 4 million job losses

And the SA economy shrinking by between 10% and 17% in 2020.
Martin Kingston of business formation, Business for South Africa (B4SA). Image: Moneyweb

South Africa is facing a coronavirus-driven jobs bloodbath, with the Business for SA (B4SA) formation forecasting that up to four million jobs could be lost this year.

Speaking during a media webcast on Wednesday, B4SA’s Martin Kingston said a minimum of one million jobs are set to be lost, but up to four million jobs are on the line as a result of the expected economic fallout from the Covid-19 pandemic.

The ominous forecast on job losses comes as B4SA has also predicted that South Africa’s recession will be significantly worse in 2020, with a GDP decline in the double digits.

The business body is now forecasting GDP shrinking by between 10.3% and 16.7% – significantly higher than forecast from the South African Reserve Bank, National Treasury, Moody’s and IMF of around 6%.

“Despite the government’s Covid-19 economic stimulus and relief package, we are expecting SA’s GDP in 2020 declining between around 10% and 17%… In addition, between a million and four million formal and informal sector jobs are at risk,” Kingston said.

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Whatever’s left (in terms of jobs) the ANC will care of. We can rely on them to be consistently destructive.

So why would the anc still carry on with the lock-down? No sensible and humane government will sit back like them and watch people loose everything. Is there perhaps another agenda?

Yes there is “total control” communism. It will fail eventually but they have to have it.

CR was talking yesterday about the economic transformation that has to take place now to rebuild what they broke, they will blame C19.

The ANC did their own economic transformation when they started looting in 1994, into their pockets not the poor. Now we must give.

I really wish I knew. For a week I thought Cyril was finally in control of the party but now it maybe Dlamini Zuma and het co-horts. Heaven help us. I cannot believe a government can be sop clueless

That forecast MAY be what is recorded, but Aids/TB/C19 deaths in the rural areas will be washed down the river.

Collateral damage or unintended consequences. (or intended??)

These numbers sound more like it.

The fallout will be epic. All for a lockdown we never needed in the first place. Aided and abetted by a hysterical media that are still not onto the economic meltdown.

Hard to believe that there’s not another agenda.

And who will pay these folk to eat when they are pounding the pavements. With SMEs destroyed, the State broke and large companies markets shrunk where is the money going to come from.

Lockdown not for SA( there never was any real lockdown in more than 50% of areas). The principle cannot work in such a poor country.

meanwhile people of NDZ and Ebrahim Patel quality -both simply unsuitable for their roles-have far too much power-but worst-non ANC supporters tolerate this criminal clique controlling them

And Mr Gordhan will be forming his new airline whilst the people die of hunger and disease – dispicable

10 million employed in SA..That leaves 6 million with jobs of which only a 100 000 pay 50% toward income tax

A scary outcome!

I cannot see any other way out bar a World Bank/IMF bailout

But the faction within the ANC will oust CR and Tito and prevent this from happening

Whats left will be looting the likes we’ve never seen in this country before and the faction will invite the Red Berets into their fold

And we all thought Zuma was down and out? Think again, he’s not a Zulu leader for nothing

It seems to me that there are only a few ways to earn money. 1) You have a daddy that leaves you millions, so you can live off the interest. Unfortunately uncommon. 2) You do crime. Can be very profitable at first but not recommended – strong likelihood of a bad ending. 3) You play the market. Not a terrific idea right now. 4) You help a company make money so you earn money. By far the best way, but you need to have some skills to do it. So I would love to see extensive job-related skills training take place in SA. SMEs would flourish and SA could start getting back on its feet again. Oh, I forgot – there’s also a 5th way: you work for the government. So you don’t have to work very hard (at least 3 people doing the job one person could do) and you get regular 7% salary increases. Nice stuff if you can get it.

The economic damage caused will result in far more death than Covid 19 can ever do.

So we will have the downside of the economy and deaths anyway.

How much sense does it make ?? Zero ! We need the government to make a U turn and Immediately drop this lockdown nonsense

What is the implication of this self-generated catastrophe? The coming tsunami will come from two opposite directions.

One tsunami will originate from the tectonic shift at the base of the business environment. The individuals who have lost lose their jobs, and the businesses whose business models were put in lockdown, won’t be able to service their debt and repay their loans. Businesses can by liquidated but at what price? There aren’t any buyers in this market where everybody in the same industry is struggling to breathe. Goodwill, brand, buildings, equipment and stock won’t be worth very much. The first group of people to drown in the tsunami will be those subsidized investors who are staying in the luxury waterfront hotel called BEE towers.

The other tsunami will come from the direction of the public sector. The government employee, the recipient of the social grant, the cadre at the SOE and the politician will demand their basic salaries and bonuses while the taxes that have to fund it has dried up. The unstable levels of government debt and guarantees to SOE’s, plus the implicit guarantee of pensions will blow a big hole in the hull of this ship just as the tsunami strikes.

Both these tsunamis will wash all the way inland to the highest ground in the economy, the hill called Reserve Bank Hights. The brave Governor will throw out a life-vest here and a life-vest there, but eventually he will be forced to use paper to mop up the entire mess. He will eventually absorb the tsunami with newly-created currency. The amount of paper will save the banks, but the purchasing power of the paper will disappear.

The best option was to prevent lockdown from triggering the earthquake. It is too late for that now. We can end lockdown immediately, but politicians are too slow, they are playing volleyball on the beach while the tsunami is rushing in.

There are also some sovereigns that will default.

BUSA underestimates the job losses.
Martin Kingston does not have the qualification to head BUSA. EX SAA board member. Conflicted on many boards.
Surely BUSA should be putting forward solutions. Detailed solutions.
We all see the problems.

In the last 2 month period there have been 12 times more deaths from tuberculosis than covid (I used official figures). Ponder this – 63000 people died of TB in SA in 2018 (official WHO figures). People commenting here ask if there is an Agenda ? Destroy livelihoods and collapse the world economy. It’s called the New World Order – One World Government. One World Currency. Full spectrum dominance of the sheeple. Mainstream media ( with respect to Moneyweb ) is propaganda. Up to this point there has been a deafening silence with regard to the greatest economic collapse of all time ! If you can’t see that all governments are following the same script then you never will. Time to apologize to the conspiracy theorists 🙂

End of comments.

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