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Ignore the good news at our peril

No other country with such a young median age has as much wealth as SA. None.

South Africa has a good news story to tell, despite all the negative economic indicators from growth to high inflation. Even a downgrade will not impact this good news story, but the politicians and even government departments do very little to sell it. This may be an even-bigger risk.

Statistics SA’s annual General Household Survey of 2015 released last week, again confirms that South Africa is a very different place to that of 1994 or before and even from 2002, and that there are many good news stories that seem to disappear within the perpetual negativity.

This survey looks at what South African households have in assets and if they have certain services such as water and electricity. It also asks questions on health and education and gives us insight into how people earn, live and get services.

One aspect which really represents a good story is the fact that South Africa, with a median population age of around 25 years old, has a home-ownership rate of well over 60%. This is one of the most amazing development stories to come out of an emerging market country, according to calculations based on the survey (This does not include President Jacob Zuma’s PTO Permission To Occupy).

Moreover 78% of South Africans live in formal houses, which is far higher than most other emerging market countries and certainly far higher than anywhere else in Africa. Only 14% live in RDP (Reconstruction and Development Programme) houses!

In 2002 there were 8.6 million formal houses. This grew to 12.6 million in 2015. This is an increase of four million formal sector houses and suggests that there were more formal houses than the actual total number of households in 2008.

Furthermore of the four million homes, according to government data, only 1.7 million RDP homes were completed. This means that 2.3 million formal houses were built by households themselves, sometimes with subsidies, but mostly without State assistance.

Building data from the private sector suggests that of these 2.3 million houses, fewer than 800 000 were built in large towns and cities. This means that 1.5 million were built in rural areas, with or without formal planning permission. (Planning permission would be the way the building statistics are collected).

No other country with such a young median age has this much wealth! None.

This is probably the reason why more than four million foreigners live here.

Add the fact that South Africa has one of the highest numbers of second home-ownership in the world by far. Close to 30% of South African households own a second home, which is much higher than the 4% found in Europe. Yes, SA has eight times the rate of second homes than people in the richest trading block in the world.

Something else is happening here that is not explained by poverty and inequality.

A total of 6.5 million households had six or more rooms in 2015, while the average number of people in a household fell from 4.7 in 1996 to 3.4 people in 2015.

That the average household has declined by one-and-a-half people from the mid-1990s is a clear indicator of increasing wealth and resources, as poorer households would tend to be bigger and richer households smaller.

Yes, nearly as many families rely on grants as they do on work as a source of income, leaving many in relative poverty. But the fact remains that South African households have far more in assets than income (perhaps a telltale sign that people lie about income?)

Other wealth indicators fare well too

Households with stoves more than doubled from 6.5 million in 2002 to over 13.2 million in 2015.

Since 1996, the number of households owning television sets has risen from five million to 13 million. In fact more households today get satellite television than the total number of households with televisions in 1996.

Piped water in or on the actual dwelling went from 7.4 million to 11.7 million. Households connected to the electricity grid went from 8.3 million in 2002 to 13.8 million. More than ten million households were added to the grid in the last 26 years.

The number of households with cars has more than doubled since the turn of the century.

Over 90% of adults have mobile phones.

South Africa has the sixth-highest pension assets to GDP in the world – the youngest country by far to have such as high ratio (with Namibia the only one breathing down our necks). There are over 15.25 million pension accounts in SA that we know of (according to OECD data and our own FSB data updated to 2013 for pension assets).

Amps (all media and products survey) lifestyle measurements back up the general household survey data and show upward mobility and a huge compiling of assets from cars and houses to phones and fridges. Moreover, the non-financial census of municipalities confirms electricity and water trends as well as that a large proportion of households get these services for free.

There are huge success stories, but they are buried by politicians trying to play to the slogan-happy popular gallery. ‘Why?’ remains a big question here.

Just knowing these facts would give many of the protestors and social media intellectuals at least some food for thought.

Do we have the most self-destructive leadership in the world?

Unfortunately, South Africa’s leadership only focuses on the failures. Repeating and confirming that the people live in ‘poverty’ will result in protests, even if images of destructive protests are banned on the public broadcaster.

We see around 5 000 protests a year, even while a record number of students attend university. Politicians then aim their actions at minorities and allow people with misguided information to rule the debates and social media.

If you want to organise your own destruction then clearly you let the ‘information-deprived’ rule the airwaves and social media with suggestions rather than fact.

This is clearly what will not just bring about a downgrade but complete economic destruction.

You get the wrong policies by focusing on minimum wages and not business creation. You also end up confirming that you have achieved nothing. People tend to believe that and you have no clear way back other than banning bad news – which you yourself spread.

‘Success breeds success’ is a truth that is universal. Real leaders point to successes, like Barak Obama does about the economy and politics. He does criticise, but more often than not he points to the wins and not the losses of his government. So too do most democratic leaders.

It is silly to point out failures as your way to victory. It will lead to people who worked at making things successful becoming disheartened and those who have benefitted to expect more as they are still ‘poor’.

If we allow this to continue we will become the first modern economy in the world to self-destruct. Some of our ‘facts’ in public debates are so wrong and so far out that we need our full attention to set things straight.

Yes, there still are problems and yes, downgrades will come. But if we carry on with the current mindset and not see the facts for what they are, we run the risk of destroying ourselves and regressing to an economic stone age.

COMMENTS   44

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“Close to 30% of South African households own a second home” I have problem with this statistic. Among my acquaintances the second home ownership is much lower and I consider myself middle class. How did they get this figure?

Hi how to get the numbers; If one goes to StatsSA and at the bottom of the home page selects Nestar. Then one goes to General household Survey and you the select the tabulate function and look at number of household and number of 2nd homes when you get there. It is there every year and change slightly but we have a very very high 2nd home ownership partially due to old homelands but also due to people with houses saying they do not have and then getting “RDP” house and renting it out. Also many just have 2nd homes on rivers; coast etc. The numbers are there.

Very obvious and yet it wasn’t the first thing that sprung to mind for me either.

My middle-class mindset immediately sprung to thinking of holiday homes and rental properties.

The RDP and homeland aspect is an important one.

However, what is the definition of “owns” and “household” in this article?

Very often a person is supporting their extended family e.g. brothers or mothers etc. by getting the property in their name but that does not necessarily mean that it is owned since there is still a bond.

Perhaps a more meaningful measure would be homes-per-adult.

Think: migrant labour. A migrant worker has a home in the “homelands” and one in the “urban compound” where he works (or looks for “a job”).

Hi you are partly right of course however most 2nd homes are formal and then there are 3rd and 4th homes too. Some are from wealthy people who say stay in Joburg and have a pad on the coast. Others are people who have taken a lot of their income “home” built a home for Mum and she has now past on. It was also built in Tuscan style (See BushbuckRidge or Tzaneen lakes etc) and now is a place part of the family stays in permanently or just another place to go to. Often when with other South Africans on conferences i am surprised to find very few in the Hotel with me. They often tend to stay/visit family or other homes they tell me. Sure there is migrant labour but mining labour force is now only about 3% of total labour force and many mines take employees from their surrounds so migrant labour in SA now much much smaller but is a factor.

Great to read and that the indicators showing improvement are so broad based. There are so many people who are sacrificially working towards a betterment of SA society in many ways, small and big, that it is pleasing that this seems to be having an effect. Also that so much of the improvement was probably independent of government aid.

One stat that may be worth having more detail about is home ownership. How many are due to a dwelling in a previous homeland plus one in the city? This may be very different from a comparison with Europe.

Nevertheless, strong points made by Mike. We need to tackle economic growth and the reasons for its low rate otherwise the pack of cards will collapse.

Typically the Keynesian mumbojumbo under the banner “debt is immaterial; only growth matters.”

Mike now improves on this: look at the goodies we bought with loans (which we cannot pay off in any case). Let’s borrow more (Mike calls this “business creation”) to grow!

Soon, his thinking will be discredited because the world will experience the explosion of the supernova of debt.

Of course Mike can’t see this as he is also eating from the trough of easy money and sees more debt as the solution.

Mike’s worst remark is to link “success” and Obama. The man is a disaster with legs and has written FAIL on his forehead. The disastrous Obamas administration is the one and only reason of a populist as Trump becoming the next POTUS.

Very illuminating Mike, but I think in one corner only. The second part of your article is more sobering and weakly acknowledges that all the “good news” doesn’t really grow the economy. It only shifts money say, from the taxpayer, to government, to a “civil” servant then to Cashbuild and a pension fund, with 30% being skimmed back in “tax”. Going nowhere.

I would guess that the growth you pointed out tracks the government (inc parastatals) wage bills. No real growth, just churning cash. The generators of “true income”, mining, unsubsidised exports, services to outside of SA etc are staggering along.

Without a full picture, there is no picture.

I tend to agree with you, Paul, also not an “apples with apples” game comparing 2 nd properties, etc, when the standard of these properties is not somewhere that anyone in the rest of the developed world would consider living in. I also have to question the “indebtedness” of the newly beholden and look at how the likes of Edcon, Lewis, Ellerines, African Bank, etc, etc, are either battling or closing doors as a result of not being paid for these newly acquired assets. I have a lot of respect for Mr. Schussler , and follow his findings whenever published but something in this one just doesn’t gel with me. Perhaps I am misunderstanding the gist of the article!

Perhaps i can ask Moneyweb nicely to put a picture SAFCOL took in a rural (sort of 2nd property area) environment up. It will show you a four level Tuscan style homes and lots of them.

Also googlemap Bushbuckridge and then talk a “walk on the street” or Thoyandou or even Valley of thousand hills. Near Blomhofdam on the Vaal river are some informal / formal / unplanned homes too. Please do that and the point you will see is that the 1.5 million “unrecorded” houses built will surprise you. Our poeple are very good home builders – otherwise Cashbuild; Express Build, Builders, and scores of other hardware place would not exist.

Well done Mike, very good work!
Currently China and India is in a race to build the most toilets. India currently has a backlog with 700 million people without toilets!
China on the other had has a bigger problem as they also has to build hundreds of millions of toilets as their tourist industry is suffering due to the accommodation without toilets all over China.
We will get through this boom-and-bust-cycle eventually and I believe a downgrade will be averted .

So, SA is not the only country without toilets for all…..

Mike I think there is a big omission in your analysis of how many assets South Africans have amassed. Based on what I see in our line of work (financial education) I would wager that a significant portion of those assets have been bought on credit – and that’s why our debt to income ratio is 76% and most people can’t get by each month – despite having new TV’s, phones, cars and the like. But yes – I do see your point. It’s the reason I choose to and love living here… we have so much more good than bad.

The Mortgage book of banks has been declining in real terms (after inflation ) for years. While short-term credit and credit cards are certainly different and have been used for this cases of civil debt have been in decline for over a decade now!!!

Bad loans are not a problem in our banking industry and building on credit is a two century institutional thing. (Since 1820 in fact according Angus Maddeson the Dutch historian and economist.)

So we have built a lot of homes on short-term loans and lay byes and credit cards – is that not a wise thing for people to do in place where there is no property tax or when you need a home near the city?

“Since 1996, the number of households owning television sets has risen from five million to 13 million.” I think the words “owning a TV” is arguably not that accurate since we all know that one of the first things to get stolen during a robbery is a flat screen TV. Therefore the number of true owners of TV sets is a lot less, but yes 13 million people may be watching TV.

If the Zuptas and their ilk and kin step aside, believe me, SA can move forward and achieve great things. Pretty much all South Africans agree with this….no matter which T-shirt you wear….

while i agree with the author that there are things to be happy with in SA , there is more to be unhappy with on a daily basis.
1. BBEEE is causing the cream of young white entrepeneurs and professionals to seek their fortunes elsewhere- govt. can’t impose unwanted partners on business people
2. Kleptocracy in government is rapidly bankrupting the country
3. Non- service delivery from Eskom and other parastatals is the norm
4. the currency has devlued by 300% in US$ in 10 years and by 1500% in 40 years
5. Companies that can are listing overseas because why work for profit which is worth less and less everyday
6.The weather is great though-

A currency can at most devalue 100% as then there would be nothing left. Do not worry UCT keeps making that mistake.
Yes people steal in government. But that is something we can stop and other countries have that problem too.

point taken Mike- the rand is down to 1/3 and 1/15 th respectively of what it was.
One thing is for sure though, i signed on for the 1994 free elections and the Mandella years were encouraging but i feel very negative about this country at the moment- it goes from bad to worse.

Not sure that bad loans are not a problem in the local banking industry.Why then are their price earnings ratio so low relative to the rest of the market.Think they have a big bad debt problem which is only going to get worse.

You can fake anything with cherry-picked statistics.

Economists have made an art-form of doing this. Blindly trusting economists can be as dangerous as trusting politicians.

Better to test these views against your own judgement based on what you see on the street and encounter in everyday life.

The Devil is in the detail (the fact that many “owned” TV’s are stolen goods, rather than fully paid-for retail goods, completely reverses some of the conclusions that can be drawn from these figures).

The picture now might be rosy, but I seriously doubt the trend is as rosy as Schussler makes it to be.

My 2c. But obviously others will differ.

Cherry picking statistics applies to many but I think year after year of household data show SA has a wide spread home ownership. The homes are being filled up and Life Style Measurements (LSMs) from All Media Products Survey (AMPS) run by the SA advertising Foundation a private sector foundation paid for by advertising companies; media and data sales shows a similar trend from the late 1980’s to the most recent survey. This was done twice a year although i think now done only once (25 000 plus people interviewed) StatsSA GHS talks to about 30 000 and the 2011 Census also confirms wide spread home ownership.

But next time you sit in a traffic jam think how that happens if nobody owns a car and how SA has the 2nd most mall space per adult in the World and the property funds still get very good returns – in fact retail property returns have beaten the stock market returns in SA in the main over the last two decades so somebody has been shopping for a rather long time.

Think of the chaos at mall of Africa when it opened and at the Makro in Spring as well as when Mopanya mall opened. Think of the China malls that take over older shopping malls and make them work again. Also think were Naspers gets much of its cashflow from – DSTV.

In the traffic jam ask yourself where the poeple get the cars and pertol money from? ask yourself if the cars are maintained and if they have insurance. Then watch people talk on their phones and see the people on the trains with phones; handbags and shopping bags. See the loaded taxis and bakkies on the national roads they must be stuff of value people take “home”

No i think after much thought and observation the figures should be part of our thinking. I.e. how can we free up another 15% of properties that people traditional areas can trade and get loans with. How can we deliver better services to those who have homes; and how much business can we allow at people homes to encourage economic activity. That is the true thoughts we should have and then we would get even better results in the generation of economic wealth.

The Fact that data has said a minority of people (and ever declining) do not have enough to eat is a problem we should focus on but sometimes we need to see the bigger picture.

Too many of our so-called intellectual work with slogans and not facts. That is the biggest “cherry picking” for which i do not blame you for but for attention hungry self-marketeers who do so much damage to the “facts” in our heads. That is the massive problem.

Believe me this publication asked me questions as did another one on this because even the editors can not think that these are the “facts”. The poverty brigade has hijacked the debate and use the falseness to throw stones and cast dies. They are the real cherry pickers.

I dunno Mike. Something is just not adding up.

When I travel around on the city streets at night, it is undeniable that the number of homeless people sleeping on the streets is visibly increasing. They are NOT getting less. They are getting MORE. And that is never a good sign (especially when this is an area that has seen a lot of effort by welfare groups to minimize – whatever they’re doing, it’s not working, guys!).

What worries me is what is happening in the townships away from the eyes of commentators.

I was recently in one of squatter townships one balmy Friday night, and the place was pumping. An economist would excitedly point to this street scene and proclaim that here was a healthy, vibrant society.

And yes, I definitely saw that aspect – hordes of obviously quite happy people enjoying the night out, amidst hordes of street vendors equally keen on making a buck out them. And good luck to all these people. We’d certainly be in a terrible situation if these people weren’t so happy.

But I was deeply troubled by what else I saw. And this is what goes unreported. Or is glossed over by the economists and social commentators.

The thing that struck me most, wasn’t so much the hordes of little kids (5-10 years) roaming the streets long after dark, but that most of these kids were unaccompanied. There was NO adult supervision. Heck, there were minimal signs of parents actually being with their kids, and acting like responsible parents. Just feral kids roaming around in packs. And there were absolutely hordes of them.

No responsible parent would dream of allowing their children to behave thus. Yet here it was – life as it existed.

Yet there is an undeniable population explosion taking place. And its not good.

I thought of the future to come. For them. For the rest of us in SA. And I’m troubled, Mike. Deeply troubled.

Because the future of this country – and the poor – depends ENTIRELY on the QUALITY of the parents and the kids they produce.

These are NOT the kids that are going to excel at school. They are the ones that are going to struggle. And burn the place down when they don’t like the principal, or don’t get a matric certificate worth having.

It’s not the schools, or the teachers, or the learning material that’s the problem (although this invariably how the “educationists” and the politicians will play it). It’s the kids and the “parents” themselves. They are not nearly as clever as they could be.

“School” cannot fix dumb!

How many TV’s and stoves there are in the townships may be an interesting metric (for economists), but these metrics are superficial, and NOT the important metrics for measuring the HEALTH of our society.

In short, in my personal opinion, the ONLY real metric worth gauging for the transformation of our society from a 3rd world to a 1st world is the quality of the families.

Are the kids being produced by teenage mothers? Definitely not a good idea – but stupid Manuel thought it a great idea to reward this behavior anyway! Is the father present? Does he play an active and positive role in bringing up the kids? In these societies, hardly, it seems.

Virtually every criminal in prison and gang-member on the streets is a product of a fatherless upbringing.

I’m sure there was probably a TV at home. And a stove. Maybe even a dish on the roof of the shack. It meant nothing – because it means nothing.

Think about it.

Almost all the serious societal problems that we suffer from (crime, drugs, unemployability, mental health) could be HUGELY improved if the government ACTIVELY rewarded young girls NOT to have babies while they were too young, and thereafter only with responsible fathers.

Have you seen ANY economist put ANY thought into coming up with a practical scheme to achieve this? And pushed the government and politicians to implement it?

Me, neither!

What gets measured gets fixed. Just because something can be easily measured doesn’t mean it has real worth.

We need to create the tools to measure the RIGHT things.

Getting sidetracked by the enticing sparkles from easily accessible, but essentially worthless stats, is the road to ruin.

That is my point. And concern.

Jonnox.

I get that point as we have the highest percentage of single parent households that i know of. (From Luxembourg Income Study) About 52% of our kids live with single mothers.

This is a huge problem and is something we need to fix urgently. The declining hunger remains within this group. The highest Unemployment of the top 50 economies also impacts here.

So we do measure somethings but do not know how to fix it either. Take away Labola perhaps? Get profits going so unemployment will drop when firms feel comfortable.

But we do have these houses and stoves. That is the point. We have something good and we need to make better use of these assets and at least tell people the facts about housing and cars etc.

We also need to do this without inferring that TV’s are there because they were stolen or something else all of the time. We have some successes such as households linked to water and sewage and lights etc. We do give the single mum and her water and electricity and sanitation. we give some grant money which I know is never going to be enough or even if it the best way to help people I am not sure of.

But the kids go to school and get injections and stuff. Am worried about no parental guidance too however and that is something we need to get our heads around and it is something you have wisely pointed out that assets or GDP number will never show.

I have taken a longer time to answer here because it made me think and that is great as we need to think about this stuff too.

Thanks for your responses, Mike.
Much appreciated, and noted.

Hi Mike, I’m battling to “balance the books” with this one, especially as this 25 year old category fall within the highest unemployed category as well. If the properties and household goods are balance sheet items, then one surely has to go to the income statements to see how these assets are being paid for, and this part has got me completely baffled! Can there be any savings after living expenses from monthly grants, even if grouped?

My feeling remains, that a lot of these assets are not worth the “perceived value” at all. By and large, property prices in the formal market have gone backwards over the last 5 years in all but the Western Cape, so I can imagine that the informal housing market has done even worse due to retrenchments, inflation, etc, etc. Income growth is lower than population growth, eating away at monthly living expenses, leaving absolutely no saving opportunity at all. I don’t see the correlation between wealth and standard of living in this scenario but would appreciate it if you could do a further article on this please.

I also do struggle to balance the books as many young people are not employed. I know that and the statistics from all over say that.

But let me help in a few ways i think about it.

Firstly an RDP house is built for you and you do not pay. At least 2.6 million households get free water and lights and sewage and bin removal. Most of these households get a grant and many are struggling single mums. They get a small child grant. We have nearly 17 million people on Grants. Many live in RDP houses or got sudsidies to buy building material with and roped in a family member or two to built said house.

People also get money from other family members working who pay them some money. They save a little and every month buy say 200 bricks. Every other month they buy some cement. They add a little by little to a property and so build their house. Others do piece jobs or subsistence agriculture and when asked by people say not they are not employed. The small amounts of money get put aside and get to be put into a home.

Some get homes as their parents die or at least in traditional areas get permission to occupy. This would be quite a few I think.

Other again have an RDP house in the city that they now rent out (Just over 22% of household rent so others must be collecting said rent) Other have an older Apartheid matchbox home that has an added room or three now and rent out the said rooms.

There is also the truth that you by the nature of statistics cannot be employed when doing something “criminal”. No i am not talking robbers and shooters. I am talking prostitution, hunting, fishing without a licence or poaching in everyday taal. The Zama’s Zama miners are also illegal and therefore by definition not employed. Most of above would more likely involve younger poeple. Then also think of the beggars and the sellers of dagga and the shebeens etc. That might at least give quite a few hundred thousand people an income…

A combination of above or even a “blesser”

But yes i also struggle to put these thing together. mayby someone else can help.

One detail overshadows this good news: More than 25% of the population is without a job. The Business sector and the government are doing nothing to rectify the situation.

That is a very bad number and i agree that is our number 1 economic problem. There is no doubt that employment needs to come and can only come if enterprise can make money i.e. Profits

In South Africa 7 million people go hungry everyday and 14 million are food insecure. 8 million or more are unemployed and the who is lying about income. Schusler is launching wild goose chase.
http://businesstech.co.za/news/lifestyle/124181/why-rising-food-prices-hit-the-poor-hardest/

not true according to official stats, Someone is making a table for themselves by putting that stat out there

Mike, I am not arguing the stats you illuminate and I work in semi-rural KZn and am surprised at the number of brick and tile, 3 bedroom houses built and being built. As you partly note it is unlikely any have planning permission and legal or engineered access to services. I would be very surprised if they paid any rates. Another hidden minefield.

But extend the stats a bit. As I say, show us the “good news” along with a graph of government wage bills.

I am a technical person and, if commenting on a temporary bridge over the M1, I cannot just write about what a lovely paint job it has and ignore a few missing bolts.

I sort of get what you are talking about but want to say the houses look like more than a paint job to me. I think we need to get those houses title deeds in rural areas where they do not have; levy a small tax to build infrastructure but we must remember that the biggest unemployment is in the rural areas.

Those rural areas rely on people in cities sending cash and Grant too of course. But we need to get enterprise going and nothing motivates like the ability to own assets such as property and houses and shopping centers etc. That would be one way to go. That may also help reduce some unemployment there.

But there is more than a paint job going on here – for a while already.

Do the owners of these self-built homes have any equity value? Do our banks accept these homes as surety for a bank loan? Apparently traditional chiefs in rural areas deny any personal title-deed ownership of land to people who want to farm or build residential or industrial structures. Please advise. Thanks

Of course the traditional areas do not get bank loans for houses. We need title deeds to go to the people who live in them. There are projects to get some of this done by NGO’s mainly.

Of course when you do not own the land you do not get a loan from the Bank unless you are the President it seems.
Traditional chiefs will have to “lose” the land for progress said as much in another reply

I remember not too long ago you were part of the crowd that was negative on South Africa’s prospects. What changed your view?

Still negative about current economy but we have one or two things to be happy about. Not perfect and have always said we are an asset rich income poor nation.

What would be the macro economic benefit being an asset rich/natural resources country when SA issue bonds of which the interest is redeemed by way of gold or platinum. In my view; opportunities that comes to mind is >mining, more tax, less borrowing?

Thank you Mike.

You can maybe follow up with an article post watching this https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cZ7LzE3u7Bw

All SAs would have been much more prosperous.

Morning Mike and the active community,

Mike thanks for being willing to put your views out there despite the barrage of criticism.

I agree SA needs to be more positive on what we have, if we as a nation can focus on building from where we are, rather than destroy the little we have, perhaps our GDP can improve a little and people would be happier with each other.

Looking forward to the next article.

Thank you sorry for delay but had to earn a few bucks.

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