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New data shows how rolling blackouts dented the economy

The March Beti declined across all measurement periods, with Eskom hurting the economy the most.

Eskom’s severe rolling blackouts last month had a significantly negative impact on South Africa’s economy, according to new data from financial transactions clearing house BankservAfrica.

According to BankservAfrica’s monthly Economic Transaction Index (Beti), banked economic transactions declined by 0.4% from February to March. On an annualised basis, the Beti dropped by 1.8%; it declined by 0.6% on a quarterly basis.

The Beti is a broad early indicator of the health of the economy.

“The March Beti declined across all measurement periods,” said Shergeran Naidoo, BankservAfrica’s head of stakeholder engagements, in a statement. Naidoo said the numbers are a clear indication of the “deteriorating state of the economy”.

Mike Schüssler, chief economist at Economist.co.za, said Eskom’s load shedding hit the economy hard.

“It is clear that the extensive load shedding in March hurt the economy with the real value of transactions down, and the actual value of transactions declining for the first time since April 2017,” he said.

‘Downward trend’

“The economic business cycle is still in a downward trend according to the Beti and it seems very likely that the domestic economy will show a decline when the GDP figures for the first quarter of 2019 are published.”

The standardised nominal value of the Beti was R875.7-billion while the average value per transaction was R8 444. This is the first nominal rise in 23 months, said Naidoo. This rise, however, is due to VAT refunds paid in March.

“Without the nearly R20-billion worth of Vat repayments paid into the National Payments System, the March Beti would have been worse off.”

According to Schüssler, the increase in the average value per transaction also suggests that transactions of higher value were made during the load-shedding period to reduce the number of such transactions.

“Overall, the fact that the Beti showed a 0.6% decline from the previous quarter suggests the economy’s resilience. Firms and customers, along with employees, are still trying to transact and go about their normal business as much as possible,” he said.

“Still, based on the Beti data and other economic indicators, it is very likely that the South African economy will start the 2019 year on weaker levels. One can expect economic growth forecasts to be slashed.” 

This article was published with the permission of TechCentral. The original publication can be viewed here. 

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Rolling blackouts brought to you by the ANC

Everybody is missing the point.

The cause for SA’s economic decline – viz accelerating decline, is not Eskom, but rather a fundamental matter. Eskom is merely a consequence.

The fundamental matter can be summarized in one number: 1994.

This is what happens when you negotiate with terrorists.

This is the consequence a CULTURE OF ENTITLEMENT, A CULTURE OF HAND-OUTS, but more so – the consequent of handing a functioning industrialized country to the hunter-gatherers of the Mesolithic age.

Evolution is the most powerful force of nature. Left to its own devices, a group of beings will rapidly return (ie fall back – atavistic) to its natural place in evolution. Post-colonial Africa is a text-book case; from Liberia to South Africa.

As reference to the topic covered in the leading article: What is a pertinent feature shared by Venezuela (once the wealthiest country in South America) and South Africa once the wealthiest country in the southern hemisphere)?

BLACKOUTS

Go figure…

You confirm that the ANC are to blame – 1994 or not.

Wow – the Moneyweb PC police must have been having a kip when you posted this. Not that I don’t agree with you – 100%

ANC is bad for Beti

“…once the wealthiest country…”
If you were a tax payer in 1994, or owned a company that paid tax, you would NEVER make such statements.

“Everybody is missing the point”

You must be very young to make such an audacious claim.

Agree, but ANC does not even begin to grasp this

Who are the terrorist, the oppresses or the oppressed ?
Who are the terrorist, the disrespect of fundamental human right or the receiver of inhuman treatment?

The previous president of the ANC sold us out. The nation was sold to smugglers through state capture.

The organ trafficker, a person who sells a single part of a body is called a criminal. We call people who sell their own personal body parts physiotherapists, masseuses or prostitutes. A person who sells his grey matter is called a doctor, philosopher or nuclear scientist. People who sell their entire bodies are called sportsmen. A person who sells his time is called a farmer, lawyer or consultant.

Above all of them, is the guy who sells a whole nation. We call him the president.

Blackouts dented the economy! Who would have thought? Then again the ANC thinks that economic reality does not impact the country just because they govern it.

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