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SA to hit fiscal cliff within months

Big showdown expected when Mboweni tables mid-term budget in October.
It’s a face-off between the realities of our economic situation and the ANC’s failing political ideologies. Image: Shutterstock

SA has run out of time and a financial crisis looms within months.

The state is currently spending R50 billion a month more than it is getting in, and it is becoming increasingly difficult to fund this deficit.

This is the view of RW Johnson, thought-provoking writer, historian, academic and political analyst. He revisited his old question – How long will SA survive? – in a webinar organised by Holborn Management Services.

He believes Finance Minister Tito Mboweni’s mid-term budget in October will be the “big showdown” between the realities of our economic situation and government’s failing political ideologies. Mboweni has promised big changes, says Johnson, but government is in a deadlock that makes decisive decisions impossible.

“SA has had a generation of ANC rule, but the ANC has failed to govern trustworthily,” he says. “We have seen six years of falling income and most state-owned enterprises are in a state of bankruptcy.

“Unemployment has tripled. The number of people who have access to clean water is now lower than in 1994. The ANC has not delivered a better life for all.”

It is telling that the moderator of the virtual presentation noted that nearly 800 people watched it. Holborn partner Mark McAllister said that Johnson has penned two books, five years apart, posing the same question about SA’s future. “RW has predicted SA’s junk status, the worsening debt situation and an IMF bailout,” he said. “And here we are again.”

Johnson has come to the conclusion that SA will hit the wall as far as government finances go in 2021, maybe stretching the inevitable to 2022.

The only option

As most people know, the only option to avoid the so-called fiscal cliff is to cut government spending sharply. Mboweni set a target to cut government spending by R230 billion, which seems impossible, says Johnson. “No cut in government spending has ever been greater than R70 billion.”

The targeted cut in government spending means nothing less than a reduction in the state’s wage bill. But the magnitude of the savings required suggests that lowering wages and salaries will not be enough. “We need to get rid of a lot of people,” says Johnson, “but it is politically impossible.”

Nothing has proved this point as much as the labour action by municipal employees in Gauteng – refusing above-inflation salary hikes while the rest of the country suffered devastating loss of income due to the coronavirus pandemic and lockdown of businesses.

Meanwhile, government continues to create unrealistic expectations and is making huge promises.

These include a state bank, an unaffordable national health insurance scheme, a basic income grant, a state pharmaceutical company, continued funding of unyielding and ineffective state-owned enterprises and, the latest, a basic grant for women.

Johnson says it is noteworthy that there is no word on the funding of all these “airy fairy” proposals.

“The basic income grant will cost R200 billion and the women’s grant R140 billion. Not even the R10 billion for the foolish idea of funding SAA has been made available yet.

“It is absolutely clear that there is a shortage of money,” says Johnson.

He reiterates that government needs to take decisive action, but the ruling party itself is divided and cannot make the very important decisions needed.

A divided party

“Historically, the ANC is not a party of unity. It was formed from different groupings right from the start. The only thing that united them was their opposition to white rule. This has since disappeared.

“It is the first time that the ANC president is not supported by a majority of the ruling party, putting SA in a very weak situation,” says Johnson, adding that SA is waiting for decisive leadership.

“It is noteworthy that [president Cyril] Ramaphosa has not publicly backed any of the economic plans. He talks very nicely, but there is no clear direction.”

Johnson says it will become increasingly difficult for government to fund its spending and the ongoing deficit.

Government bonds as an indicator

“We can see it in the interest rates on government bonds, where the rates on longer term bonds are significantly higher that shorter term bonds. The two-year bond is below 8%, 10-year bonds are sitting at around 9.3% and 40-year bonds at 11.34%. This exceptionally steep increase shows that the market does not believe we will be able to fund over the longer term.

Read: Just how attractive are SA government bonds?

“It will become increasingly difficult to fund the billions we need every month, week after week,” says Johnson, referring to government’s regular bond auctions. “The pressure to simply print money will increase. Not even trade unions will want to invest their money in a bankrupt airline.”

We must remember that SA is part of the world and we are deeply entrenched in the international economic sphere, dependent on foreign investment. In short, foreign investors need to change their dollar, euro, yen or whatever currency into rand.

Investment attractiveness

Johnson says they continually ask themselves: “Do I really want to put my money into that currency? Do I want to put my money into that country? Is my money safe? Will I be able to remit my profit?”

Government won’t get money if our economic policies chase foreign investors away and our economy stagnates.

Johnson says government will probably end up doing a bit of everything – hope for a bit of economic growth, print more money, look at borrowing more and, lately, the big temptation of getting hold of some of the trillions of rand of pension money through the introduction of prescribed assets.

Lack of political will precludes taking the correct, courageous steps to put the economy on the right track.

The four essential reforms that are urgently needed have been touted for years, but are worth repeating:

  • Reduce the size of government and cut the wage bill drastically;
  • Liberate the labour market;
  • Take tough action on state-owned enterprises and bankrupt municipalities; and
  • Overhaul the education system to produce people we need in the economy.

These basic requirements have been debated often, but the debates always come to the same conclusion – that it is politically impossible.

Johnson says the unpopular decisions to effect real change are impossible because the ruling party will lose support, notably from labour unions and the South African Communist Party.

“The result is that SA is now facing a debt crisis,” he says. “We won’t be able to cut expenditure and we won’t be able to fund the deficit.”

When will it all come to pass?

Johnson predicts that we face a debt crisis in 2021, maybe stretching it to 2022.

The government’s approach to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for a bailout is one way forward. With IMF funding, the country will benefit from lower interest rates and the forced cuts in expenditure will be bigger and tougher than if we do it on our own, says Johnson.

However, there is huge resistance to IMF loans, partly because of outsiders prescribing to government what to do and also because it is an admission of government failure. The result is that government will lose some of the support from its allies and end up controlling less of the economy.

Read:

State businesses and municipalities that are already bankrupt will not be able to function at all, akin to an inability of government to govern. “It is difficult to comprehend,” says Johnson.

He tried to end his presentation on a positive note, saying that a lot of countries have received IMF help. “The country will survive. It might look different, but countries survive,” he said.

The bottom line is the stark reality that SA has run out of money.

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Thanks to a failing Government and divisive ideological ruling party with “airy fairy” ideas they have thrown all citizens into a deep non returnable abyss

We’re all in trouble, not just the Government

The chickens have come home to roost and the leader is headless

As Mosiuoa Lekota said in the last election result interview. The people like Cyril and that is good , but the Cyril that I know is a trade unionist at heart and nothing will change as he will always keeps the unions happy.

The largest demographic keep voting the ruling party in. When they realise they collectively deserve better, u may see Change. Till then it will be the deterioration of a once proud country. When the light bulb sparks..it may be too late.

It’s africa, the pattern set.

The ANC have taken us to where we are today, by employing the very strategies they must now dismantle overnight, in order for the country to survive.

The question is – is it the country they want to save, or their own core dreams and self serving ‘communist’ ideals.

I think sadly most of us know the answer already. Socialist governments do not ever relinquish power, they will never admit they were wrong. Instead they will double and triple down and burn everything to the ground in the process.(imo)

The 4 steps are definitely what we need, but we will not get them from this government or generation.

Their stated objectives are clear. What else do you call radical economic transformation. They could not reverse course now, even if they wanted to as the article states. The people will demand what they have been promised, which they can only hope to even try, by first going after the pensions and thereafter the SARB will likely be next.

We must just learn to adapt more rapidly, to what most certainly will be happening at a much faster pace.

Romulus, nothing will be dismantled, their last task is to revive SAA just long enough to get them to Dubai.

Even if Gov’t manages to cut their spending, they’ll just end up looting whatever that difference may be!

“The first lesson of economics is scarcity; There is never enough of anything to satisfy all those who want it. The first lesson of politics is to disregard the first lesson of economics.” _Thomas Sowell

It is difficult to understand why is it not the government’s objective to reduce the ever increasing numbers of grant recipients year on year. Increase in demand under limited supply only grows scarcity to dangerously high levels.

We are now at a point where scarcity breeds even greater scarcity. The scarcity of ethics, competence and good leadership in our government structures breeds the scarcity of skilled professionals lost due to emigration. The scarcity of trust that foreign bodies have in us as a nation.
If I am to personify our economy, it would be a patient that is suffering from Acute decompensated heart failure. That is the accelerated deterioration of the heart’s ability to pump blood.
Anc we are dying!

May I respectfully correct you – the patient is suffering from COVID and doesn’t even have enough breath to press out a dry fart.

Are you allowed use the King of Bollywood, Mr Shahrukh Khan’s nickname? 😉

The ANC leadership problem, is that they’re unable to dance to the rhythm of a great Bhangra Punjabi song…

Economic out-patient care, in any form, is never a solution. We need to take responsibility for our own lives, divorce ourselves from any form of government dependence, and think in global terms. The world has become a small place, and there are opportunities for those who want to succeed and are willing to make the sacrifices. Don’t let the state of the South African economy discourage you – the world is your oyster, and life is short.

RW Johnson’s mention in the “end” (how fitting) is that countries do survive. There is no actual “end”…and that he (correctly) observe that the country “might look different” at the (so-called) end. Hence, what is RWJ saying between the lines??

Prince Mashele in his Sowetan column once described what people mean by “the end of SA”: It’s merely the end of a Eurocentred mindset which we use to measure ourselves….incl. western norms in leadership, and ethics vs corruption.

The “end” of a western centric mindset, will lead to “the beginning” of an Afro-centric society. Africa (especially rural) is ruled by kingdoms/chiefdoms/indunas, and subordinates are disrespectful to criticize such chief/king…like we did to Zuma…as it clashes with concept of western concept of accountability, ethics & democracy. But he goes on to say, that all Saffas (whatever creed) that became accustomed to SA’s western, industrialized landscape, infrastructure (it’s as if we live on an ‘European outpost’ at the tip of Africa) will have to accept that SA will revert to the same as the rest of continent society, which do NOT have the current luxuries/lifestyles that SA have at present.

Brilliant comment MFK – yes, its not “the end” but its the “end as we know it”. The pre-colonial folk have no real issue with this ending as it simply takes them back to where they were for approx 200, 000 years i.e. a semi-pastoral, tribal (big man and all defer to him) existence. Us post-colonials will need to seek equilibrium elsewhere but yes, for us, its “the end”

@Michael
Thank you for the humour there. Had a good one there. I did not know of a Shah Rukh Khan at all. The naming is purely coincidental.
This khan is from an entirely different gene pool and bloodline. The landmasses we occupy are worlds apart.

Like France in its infancy stage of life, it does not matter where we all came from, we were once all strangers, and now we can say we are all citizens of one nation. It is up to us to work together as a unit for the benefit of each and every single life amongst us. Western euro that, Southern Afro this is just what makes us a nation. It is our heritage. Sadly, with the racial divisions at play, there is just such a long way to go still. As a nation we have the capabilities to steer generations away from what the rest of Africa looks like. ANC and the likes of EFF just needs to be done away with. Those foreigners in the newly found France overcame their differences and built one of Europe’s superpower nations. They all even speak the same language, it took a lot of decades, but worth it.

@Moneyweb reader
I appreciate you lesson here. We all have to account for our own lives and i agree. Living entirely independent of government is not possible sadly. Exactly like there is not one single country that can exist entirely independent from all other countries. Autarkies do not exist.

@KoosKoen
Feel free to correct what you believe needs correction brother. I am here to learn from a lot of people. Your analogy is humorous at best. Thank you for the added levity.

If South Africa is experiencing the great depression while the global economy is at all time highs, what is the country going to look like when the inevitable global bear market arrives?

@Gone AWOL………”global economy is at all time highs”

Say what ???

Listen, if you haven’t realized the huge disconnect between a fake overinflated stock market kept artificially alive by helicopter money, and the fact that the world is in reality bleeding on the streets economically speaking, then to the back of the class, you failed miserably !!!

How is his statement incorrect? Whether you are part of the ultra wealthy or starting your first job, your life savings (pension, provident fund, etc.) are linked to the equity market. Sure, you can have non-equity savings, but the majority of savers have equity exposure. Now, US markets are soaring, add to the fact that the Rand has weakened significantly relative to the USD over the past 12+ months and you have massive underperformance having invested in SA vs globally. This opportunity cost is almost impossible to recover. Sure, GDP figures are dismal but markets are forward looking and don’t care. If my US based savings are up 25% Y/Y from the market move and another 25% from ZAR weakness, do GDP figures matter one bit? Where is the real wealth or value add being created? So as stated, when the bear market eventually hits, investments in SA will be in extremely bad shape. Even worse relative to global investments.

US GDP fell 32.9% YoY in 2Q20. Hardly global economy all time high. The whole world is currently in a Covid-19 induces recession.

In George Reisman book Government Against the Economy which was published in America around thr 1960, he talks about price control and governments creation of false inflation.

The inflation rate which we are seeing is based on a income of R74,000.00 and as you go down the income scale the inflation is upwards of 50%.

By 1994, the average minimum wage was about 15% below a slaves wage ( in today’s money a slave wage is about $205,000.00 over a 40 life span which is derived from 1650) of $427.08 or roughly R7,200.00 per month which the current minimum wage set at R3,200.00 and is a shockingly 44% of a slaves wage.

The real of inflation and it’s erosion value is actually very very small IF Goverment does not interfere.
However since Goverment has interfered in almost every aspect of economic life and it’s total disregard for the Individual’s right to individualism which allows person to choose his or her needs and wants, we are in a position were inflation has eroded real value by about 50% over the 25 years of pathetic and rule.

I don’t believe that South Africa is nearing a crisis But rather our current situation that of a full blown Crisis, over 2,000 protests took place last year, the rand it’s at its average peak against the dollar and the countries law enforcement is barely functional.

The anc will do any thing to keep in Power and eat cake whilst people die of starvation.

Welcome to Zimbabwe. I must congratulate the ANC for taking a mere 26 years to achieve this. It shows unprecedented levels of corruption and thieving expertise. The ANC has always been a ‘ movement’ not a political party. Africa is unable to comprehend the concept of opposition and rules through dictatorships and population suppression, this is our next step to complete the transformation.

Not yet Zimbabwe…not by a long shot 😉

But we’re “well on our way”….this is a (comparative) huge economy, so it will take way longer to completely destroy it.

(But once SA is destroyed, it will never rise again, unless if the emigrated skilled return in droves, along with capital)

Everyone,grouping,race,class or religion within and without our sovereign borders has its own narrative about the immediate and long term future outlook of our beautiful motherland.There are too many voices, too much noise…we must be still,just for a moment.

The fundamental question is… “Do we as South Africans,as a rainbow nation know what we really want?”…

In the absence of the right questions there can never be a right solution. Before we can know what is it we ideally want, everything goes.

Well I cannot speak for others, but for me I only want a democracy based on individual liberty and freedom. With the government really not interfering with the economy, but providing effective and efficient services and infrastructure. Basically free market with lower taxes.

But I have come to conclusion recently that this will never be achieved in SA and if people think its bad now in SA, they haven’t seen anything yet. The utter collapse of production, currency and living standard levels to that of Zimbabwe is still to come for our people.

I now realize also that my core values not only do not conform with the values of the majority, but that the divide is insurmountable. Thus I will emigrate to a country that shares my values when the COVID madness ends.

RW Johnson, in his famed 2015 book “How Long Will SA Survive” mentions that their NEVER WAS a “rainbow nation”. A myth that was created in Mandela era.

(But on a positive note, RWJ remarked that the whites in ’94 thought there would be civil war or genocide….but the blacks in general weren’t interested in that. They were fairly peaceful…as economic future was more important….i.e. so long they can also be part of the economy & benefiting through it.)

How’s that B E E working for you ?????????????? A bunch of on the job trainees !!! Moral Narcissists

Comment removed

I am so old I can actually remember a time when the company who got the tender had the expertise to do the work themselves. And did it themselves. No “born free” knows of such a phenomenon.

aka system of “patronage network”

Since 1912 the ANC demanded to rule this country but the previous government said “No you will just break it and it will go the same way as every other African country”. So in 1994 they got the opportunity to rule the country and guess what? They broke it. Today South Africa is broke.

The world needs to apologize to us for forcing us to hand it over.

Yeah… the whole world was wrong. Apartheid was right. Treating 90% of the population like dogs was right. White people Engineering this economy and country so that all the wealth fell in your hands was right. As bad as the corruption is now, guess what, there is far more of a spread of wealth now than there even was under Apartheid…!!! There is a far bigger affluent and middle class black population that there ever would have been under apartheid. The white government excluded the majority…. they decided that there shouldn’t be proper roads, schools, hospitals for people of colour. They decided that most homes would not have proper electricity and running water. All the wealth and investment went to the white suburbs….. while I don’t condone the corruption, its very convenient to sit back and point fingers now. We are all reaping the seeds of what the previously regime sowed. We have uneducated ministers…. who’s fault is that? Did the rest of the country decide that they didn’t want to be educated? No….. the previous government decided that….. all the social problems we sit with come from apartheid…. it wasn’t created by the ANC. What did you all expect…. that when the ANC takes over we will suddenly
Be run like a European country? Your system educated the current leaders….!!! This is the only country in the world where we had crimes against humanity like we did and the vast majority of oppressors still sit back and can’t even apologise nor take any responsibility for what they did. You got to keep your wealth and your assets…… you ran this country to the brink of civil war….. Your apartheid state murdered people and destroyed families….. my kids now will
Have opportunities that I never had ….. shame that his is the only forum where anyone bothers to like your comments….
the bottom line is this country is still
In better shape now than it was under white rule. The lives of the previously advantaged has changed. You don’t get the privilege you had before….. shame…..!!

Oh if only the filthy cadres had kept their thieving fingers out of the till.

And the 30 million who where kept uneducated in the rural areas are none the wiser. They will vote then in again for a sandwich and a T shirt.

5 years later the promises of a house, land, a toilet, water, electricity and a job all forgotten.

Without doubt the most evil regime ever.

Your government created that……!! The 30 mil of uneducated people was created under apartheid. Teachers educated under that system of education should suddenly become world class teachers who can teach the next generation? Generations of people will continue to suffer because of what apartheid created. It amazes me that you think these problems just vanish…..and all the blame goes to the current government. cause and effect….. google it….

The impact of government policies, good or bad, is measured by the distance that a citizen has to cover to find a safe environment that can provide for his needs. The distance he has to cover to find food and shelter. The distance he has to travel to earn a living.

The Swiss find everything they need within one block of their residence. Zimbabweans find everything they need across the border, in South Africa. Venezuelans have to walk almost 5000 km to enter the USA at the Texas border. Under an ANC government, the average South African will have to walk 11 280 km on the Trans Sahara Highway to look for a job in Spain.

The infrastructure and the economy that was built under the previous government enabled and motivated people from all over Africa to come here looking for work and opportunity. The current government will force all of them, plus the majority of South Africans to go north of the Sahara because there are no opportunities south of the Sahara.

11 280 km is the distance the average voter will have to walk to pay for his errors in judgement. The ANC will deliver on their slogan “A better life for all”, but you have to walk 11 280 km to Europe to go and get it for yourself. This is how Africans colonialize Europe. They destroy their own country through mismanagement and ignorance, and then they start walking to beg for opportunities from the “colonialists”.

As always, well said!

And aren’t you African? South African? Born here?

If the previous apartHATE government was working it wouldn’t be dead today. The point of a government is to govern a land. Clearly they could not in a sustainable way. All things considered! I thank your Christ for ending ApartHATE.

I assure you that regardless of the deterioration within SA a majority of people still appreciate their freedom under this government… the ability to go the beach on a sunny day… any beach… and sit on any bench…

You should also appreciate your freedom to spit pro apartHATE venom without the current governments’ police breaking down your door at midnight and hauling you off to imminent torture…

You conveniently overlook the basic human rights violations of the apartHATE government… bringing everything down to economics… don’t forget that the apartHATE government is also responsible for the current balance sheet as well…

Some things are more important… maybe you would only realize that if you were born into a family of colour… or if you didn’t only feel for your kind

I am neither an ANC voter nor a socialist/communist – if you require proof you may look at my past positive comments towards the opposition party and negative ones towards the ANC leadership – or just look at my name here – I also work in the private sector as a technical professional with a further business degree, so I do understand capitalism (which you try to justify your existence with)

You may rake up lots of votes here… but don’t let it get to your head… its just the demographics of the subscription that will support you regardless… ironically just like ANC voters

I’d love to see how an ANC government would held up under the severe sanctions that the apartHATE government had to endure, pre-’94? What it actually meant was, that the apartHATE government was forced – through these severe sanctions – to capitulate.

Secondly, the previous apartHATE government’s actions/non-actions cannot still have an influence the current government’s balance sheet. If you believe that, you are completely delusional.

Let’s see your, quite emotional, comment in perspective. The majority of emigrants are black people. They are fleeing from the government that gave them “independence”, towards the demographic group that “oppressed” them. Rational black people are voting with their feet. They are confirming my statements. Their opinion carries much more weight than the likes on this site because they vote with their money and their feet. They are paying to get away from the “people” as you call them.

You see my friend, playing the victim has a lifespan. After 26 years of freedom, you cannot blame anybody but yourself for your situation. As much as you are trying to make this a race issue so you can play the victim card, race has nothing to do with it. It is an issue of freedom, individualism, accountability, a market economy and property rights versus communalism, collectivism, criminality, incompetence and ignorance. Everybody knows which side I am on. You are on the opposite side, obviously.

Dear Save whatever is left. If the people of Zimbabwe could turn the clock back. Do you think they will vote for uncle Robert or Ian Smith?

@Staalpen – what are you asking me? whether one should vote for a white man over a black man? then? now?… what kind of a question is that really and where does that leave our children and their children? What are you actually teaching your children? More of the same old?

@Don’tSaveSA

You live in the past of apartHATE. Coversely, the future is known as cANCer.

Just as evil.

(During apartHEID..take note…the population number of African people born picked up at an increasing rate. Nothing like the 28,000 Afrikaner women & children died in concentration camps, along with 18,000 farm laborers). A 10th of the population at the time.

In fact, Africans illegally crossed the border during Apartheid to WORK & LIVE here. No HATE. Out of choice.

It implies whatever life was in rest of Africa, it MUST’VE BEEN WORSE that apartHATE, right?

Same distance to Australia , a more likely beneficiary of our lost talent :
My kids on their way together with their Skills and over a Million rand a year Contribution to SARS :
God this country is run by Plonkers !

@Sensei
This is not a black problem. It’s a South African problem. You are quick to point out that nobody should have an excuse because apartheid has been gone for 26 years…. and mention things like the victim card and accountability….. where is the accountability of the oppressors? You carry no blame for the social problems created? When apartheid ended,
Miraculously all the countries problems vanished. The bankrupt state suddenly became rich….. Millions of poor people, millions of uneducated people suddenly got rich and educated …… the townships
Vanished and all previously disadvantaged suddenly
Found themselves in the suburbs….. do
You live in this country? Do you see the suffering of the ordinary black citizen? You think the ANC is solely to
Blame for that? All black folks were
Rich and thriving under apartheid? Decades of racial discrimination and funneling resources to the white elite and what…. the current government must take all the blame. Yeah right…..!! Even nazi Germany apologized for its past …. but in this country, your prejudice, and racism runs so deep that you cannot see things for what they are…..
It’s easier to assign blame to others….. and not take any responsibility …..

@henry666 –

1. Exactly my point! ApartHATE was completely unsustainable! The whole world knew it! How stupid was that government and their supporters? Why on earth would you want the ANC to even try that route? You make no sense

2. The damaging effects of ApartHATE still covers the landscape of SA. The redress is extremely costly and most definitely sits on the current balance sheets… If you don’t see that you should seek the truth and find a way to open your eyes to reality. Disclaimer: I obviously do not ignore the uselessness of the current government to have made more progress in this respect

Reading your desperate hysterical denial of the reasons for our distress, namely theft, only one phrase came to mind: “It’s all over bar the shouting”. Shout away.

I assure you I am not in any form of denial over the theft and general incompetence… let the lot of them rot in jail for where they have detoured SA to… but that is not what I am taking up with the pro apartHATE government narrative… and clearly you just don’t see it… or choose not to.

Correct. ApartHEID was an artificially created system, that was unsustainable. It was wrong (but also good came from it…like Eskom power stations and dams that were constructed). Which large dams did ANC construct post 94??? And Medupi/Kusile….let’s not even go there!

Similarly, the current AA/BEE system is ALSO an ARTIFICIALLY CREATED system, that is UNSUSTAINABLE. (As RWJ remarked, “no economy can survive a system where a person is paid more than what he/she is worth”. It will be killed off by global competition.

And THAT IS EXACTLY WHY SA is in such a financial mess, be it within govt, SOE’s or ANC-controlled municipalities. To keep the artificial & inefficient BEE system going, is needs MORE MONEY to drive it, than what it brings in.
No wonder SA’s money is finally running dry.

Good enough economic explanation for you?

(If you really mean it to “SaveSA”, you need to to the 4 things RWJ mentiondd…..one of that is say goodbye BEE/labour law constraints.)

@Sensie – well played, dirty, actually filthy… but none the less well deflected. Character assassination. You seem to do that often actually when the nonsense to speak doesn’t quite add up and you are confronted about it. Fortunately it’s not a discussion about who’s right and who’s wrong… but rather what is right and what is wrong… your compass doesn’t seem to be working… I don’t think it ever did

1. Surely with the majority of the population being black they would make up the majority of emigrants in a modern South African? Even if you do mean percentage wise… so what? Of course empowered people would seek better opportunity, even when things are working well?… didn’t your forefathers do the same in coming here? That’s life, people relocate

2. “people” – you got this wrong … I left a space in my previous comment for you to full in the blank. “people” was just the last word of that question. Don’t try in your twisted way to make me the racist here when you are the pro apartHATE government narrative here. That’s just stupid.

3. My “friend”, I am playing not playing the victim or asking for anything from you. Neither did I make this about race… you cannot ask anyone to look at the old government vs the new government and only consider the things you want to consider… there are other considerations that affect us when we decide, for ourselves

4. “Everybody knows which side I am on. You are on the opposite side, obviously.” – don’t you just love pushing this narrative of division #sick

“The lady doth protest too much, methinks”.

I read a lot of points of view on this site, and yours is sadly tainted with emotional self serving and hatred…you are quick to attack, but devoid of solutions, quick to point out what is wrong, but incapable of applauding what is right…must be a real b**** to live with you…

@BD
Both sides have said their piece. You accuse one side of something both sides are ‘guilty’ of[as per your expectation of (solutions)]. Neither side tabled solutions.

How do you expect one side to applaud what is right when both sides cannot agree on what is right? You sound dismayed that the one side is emotional and then you go on to conclude with an utterly vitriolic attack. Kom nou!

If you do not see what you are expectant of, table it yourself and make a cogent argument for it. Hypocrisy helps no one.

Post Script: Seeing I did not offer you a solution myself (and i humbly apologise for that) If i had one that can do away with all of this anc/apartheid nonsense, i would afford to buy this country.

We fell off the cliff years. Because of COVID-19 things are slightly different now in that the rest of the world has joined us and no helping hands are offered. Tito the message is simple i,e

China kom help!!

Sounds good. China is able to help us through loans. They know we have a useless govt.

Tell me, which South African harbor or other “strategic points of trade entry/exit”, are you prepared to hand over to China on a 99-year lease?

When Ramaphosa was elected, he promised to drastically reduce the number of cabinet positions. He didn’t but this is the easiest way to achieve drastic cuts, even if it is politically difficult.

The funnel from every cabinet minister down to mountains of unnecessary state jobs plus the operational budget can be fixed by just deleting the a number of cabinet positions. I would guess that if he reduced the cabinet by at least 6 in the immediate term, we could achieve the R230m savings very quickly. The question is, will he do it?

Was fortunate enough to be invited to Holborn’s webinar. Have also read the book “How Long Will SA Survive” in 2015.

What is not mentioned by Bill Johnson in his webinar, is the immediate solutions by govt….between the looming cliff SA is to face….and an IMF bailout. A lot happens in between, since IMF bailout would likely mean the end of the ANC (though forced political changes that won’t sit well with the majority, that has been promised everything since 94)

What I gather from this, WHERE will govt get funds from?

Income Tax? (then economy needs to recover & grow, but it won’t grow thanks to Eskom and rules that stifle business, like our labour laws)

Foreign Direct Investment? (…perhaps a little, but again, global investors do not share our sympathies)

Loans? (but loans will need to be REPAID eventually, from tax collected from increased econ activity, but SA has been going in opposite direction…decline.)

WE can start money-printing to pay debts, but it will merely crash the currency. Not a lasting solution.

China can loan SA. (this may make the ANC’s rule to last longer)
The IMF can loan SA (this will make ANC unpopular. Even the DA of EFF will be unpopular under IMF austerity)

Wait!!! We’ve there is a solution for the ANC looters: your Pension/Retirement Fund pot.

I don’t see it any other way. We’re OK you see 🙁

Govt will be ready for the looming fiscal cliff, as it WILL “grab” onto the bars of the PENSIONS HANG GLIDER!!

Agree. At least a few years of mileage to be sourced from pension funds. Just hope they grab GEPF pension funds first. Ultimately GEPF would then become underfunded iro its defined benefit responsibilities. But those are wildly too generous anyway compared to what us poor defined contribution members are ever likely to see from our investments.
Even when GEPF becomes underfunded they can still say that we are no worse than other parts of the developed world – most defined benefit funds in the US are completely underwater due to unsustainable benefits based on dated actuarial assumptions.

TIA This is Africa. Why did anyone expect things to be different in South Africa. Go with the flow. Eat biltong, Enjoy the weather. Try to stay alive. Get a big dog. Get security. Enjoy the circus.

Exactly! Africa is lion country and the frontier wars have morphed into service delivery protests and labour union marches.

Life has never been this good in South Africa. It could have been a lot better, yes, but our ancestors said the same thing. We are not chasing one another with spears and muskets any more. We are neighbours and colleagues and we attend the same clubs, schools and gyms. Our society has much to be proud of and we do have a lot of potential. There are bigger differences within the same demographic group than across demographic groups. Race has become irrelevant and the differences can only be ascribed to political-economic points of view.

We have to get rid of the shameful ANC chieftianship though. We can make this thing work but we have to wring the ANC’s neck first.

Again, more justification to invest wealth offshore through the offshore investment allowances, as I have been encouraging South Africans to do for some 20 years… and not one of my clients regrets their decision..

The ANC since 1994, changed the phenomenon of corruption and succeeded with it by strongly influencing the political and economic environment.

These ex-guerrilla fighters were well trained by their communist friends – they knew that if the economic activity in the country is regulated and limited, the higher the authority and the power of officials in decision making and the greater the possibility of corruption since individuals are willing to pay or offer payment in order to avoid restrictions.

Great potential for corruption is especially there where the officials are under the regulation given the opportunity to decide on the basis of discretion.

In sunny SA methinks it’s now as clear as mud that:
• Corruption is linked to the level of GDP (the higher the GDP, the lower the rate of corruption) – and ours are now non-existent.
• Corruption is related to the level of education (the higher the average level of education, the lower the level of corruption) – the SA Economy over time got destroyed by cadre deployment and nepotism.
• Corruption is strongly linked to geographical location. The highest level is in Asia (mainly in Central Asia), Africa (North, Central, and South) and South America (according to the Transparency International map).
• Corruption is strongly linked to the country’s prevailing religion.
• Corruption is linked to freedom in the country (personal freedom, freedom of speech, economic freedom, etc.), with respect to the rule of law in a country and inefficiency of public administration, which is often also locally limited or is inherently corrupt.

“Corruption is linked to the level of GDP (the higher the GDP, the lower the rate of corruption) – and ours are now non-existent.” – its also entirely possible people just notice the same amount of corruption more – when there’s little spare to go around.

“The ANC has not delivered a better life for all.”

And everyone in the world of business knows why, but the solution, which requires handing over the reins of the country to qualified, trained and ethical professionals is something they cannot and will not do; they will rather see the state descend to the rank of Zimbabwe first.

Thank you democracy (being sarcastic)

South Africa is a modern-day tragedy. This shocking turnaround, after a promising start, is solely ANC-related. But, what is coming, is too ghastly to contemplate.

The ANC is a criminal organisation occupying South Africa. They all belong against the wall.

The ANC is the most corrupt government/ruling party on earth being policed by the most conflicted, crippled, corrupt and incompetent law enforcement and prosecution agencies on earth. There is no turning point, SA passed its turning point many years ago.

I am particularly interested in seeing that less people now have access to clean water than in 1994!
Surely this is in contravention to all the UN accords that have been signed by the ANC. South Africa is also a signatory to the Millennium Development Goals of the UN, one of the key issues being clean drinking water and sanitation for all citizens. The sewerage situation is equally deplorable with Kimberley being is the news recently with raw sewerage spills. Who is responsible for these environmental disasters?

End of comments.

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