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SA unlikely to achieve NDP 2030 goals: Report

The National Planning Commission says the pandemic has further damaged SA economic prospects.
The NPC says if the NDP’s interim targets had been achieved at least three million more South Africans would have been in employment. Image: Nadine Hutton, Bloomberg

The National Planning Commission (NPC) says South Africa would have been in a better position to deal with the health and economic devastation of the Covid-19 pandemic if there was better implementation of the National Development Plan (NDP).

The NDP, which is a policy adopted by the government in 2012, aims to eliminate poverty by 2030. However, the country’s economic position has significantly weakened over the past decade and the Covid-19 pandemic has accelerated the downward spiral.

“If the NDP’s interim targets had been achieved, each South African could, on average, have earned a cumulative R119 000 more by the end of 2019, the South African Revenue Service could have collected R1.7 trillion more in taxes … and at least three million more South Africans would have been in employment,” the NPC says.

The NDP sets a target of reducing unemployment from 25.4% in 2010 to 20% by 2015, 14% by 2020 and 6% by 2030. Instead, by the end of 2019 16.3 million or 28.7% of people in SA were unemployed.

Between 2010 and 2019, the annual growth in employment was 256 000 compared with an NDP target of over 400 000 a year. This translates into achieving only 64% of the additional employment targeted by the NDP.

The unemployment rate now stands at more than 40%, according to the expanded definition, and the NPC says in a review on the progress made in implementing the NDP that the Covid-19 pandemic could push South Africa further off course.

These job losses could be permanent and unemployment is likely to rise, especially for lower-skill workers. The NPC adds that the poor are at a greater risk of being marginalised as a result of an accelerated move to a digitised economy “as a result of their low skills and limited access to digital networks.”

De-industrialisation takes toll

The NPC cites the acceleration of de-industrialisation, the stalling of youth employment and fewer small businesses creating jobs as some of the reasons behind the increase in unemployment.

The rate of job creation was close to the NDP’s target for 2010 to 2015 where the economy generated close to 2 million jobs, at a rate of 391 000 per annum. However, the commission said considerable ground has been lost since then and there is little evidence that the NDP’s employment targets will be met.

SA recorded the most coronavirus infections in Africa in 2020, prompting the government to implement a hard lockdown in March, bringing the economy to a standstill. The economy is expected to contract 7.8% in 2020, according to Treasury. It is expected to rebound 3.3% in 2021 and to average 2.1% over the medium term. Based on this projection, the economy will only recover to 2019 levels in 2024.

The effects of the pandemic are expected to linger for an extended period of time. Tax revenue is projected by Treasury to be R8.7 billion lower than the June 2020 estimate. Gross debt is projected to reach 81.8% of GDP in 2020, up from the 65.6% projected in February 2020.

If necessary interventions are not adopted,  debt is expected to continue rising and could exceed 140% by 2028/29.

Read: Unemployment is worse than the official figures state

The main risks to the economic outlook are weak growth, the continued deterioration of public finances and failure to implement structural reforms.

Public wages must be tackled

Other challenges cited by the commission include tackling public servants’ – salaries which have grown by an average 40% above inflation between 2002 and 2020.

“Containing public sector personnel spending is not a simple matter of slicing and dicing. A long-term strategy is needed to address remuneration, performance, capacity and structure with the aim of delivering on NDP objectives,” the NPC says.

“It is possible that business failure and contraction will continue over the course of the coming year, at least. This will dramatically reduce the potential economic rebound.”

Read: Mboweni says SA can’t spend its way out of low growth

To offset some of the permanent damage caused by the pandemic, the NPC recommends that the government provide widespread financial support to all affected businesses and workers as well as expand public employment programmes.

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‘The National Planning Commission says the pandemic has further damaged SA economic prospects.’

Dont blame it on Covid.
Covid 19 just exposed the ANCs weaknesses. That is… They cannot run a country.

If we built a resilient economy from 1995 onwards… we would have been able to withstand shocks to the economy.

Growth is unlikely to be forthcoming as long as South Africa continues to show disdain for the value creators. Socialist inspired, policies like BEE, NHI, universal wage, expropriation without compensation do immense harm to the economy. We need to open our borders, drop tax rates, rollback restrictive labour laws, encourage skilled immigration, remove capital controls, drop public sector salaries. We need to pursue free market policies and do it as quickly as possible. If we continue along the current path of socialism, greater misery awaits us.

They don’t care if there is nothing left. As long as the individuals were able to enrich themselves and they did it their way.

Whahahaaa go figure. No wonder they are just laughed at.

Add social engineering for ppl to complete high school and at least 2 years of college / university. This is vital. Also, jail corrupt ppl. This NPC should implement the NDP. Finish and klaar 🙂

Well I just don’t understand how the “Pandemic” is blamed for this. Obviously is has some effect but wat turns SA into a disaster is the anc and its leadership.

SAB just announced they will withdraw another R2.5 billion investment from SA. It could cost hundreds of thousands of jobs.

The anc and its “leadership” thinks its a great idea to save a few drunks from themselves and blame this on their inability to allow for enough beds. WHEN YOU DO THE CALCULATION OF WHAT YOU ARE GOING TO REQUIRE YOU HAVE TO INCLUDE FOR THE DRUNKS?????? Idiots!! Citizens rights are just taken away and these are “people” that supposedly fought for rights???? Whahahaaaa. What a joke.

How do they go to bed at night knowing THEY are the reason hundreds of thousands of kids go to bed hungry because of THEIR decision to put the rights of a common drunk above that of people and children that depend on the alcohol industry for survival?? They are not all drunks are they??

How do these “leaders” sleep????

These are the type of “leaders” where grass would die where they walked.

Shameful and disgusting!!! Hey Mr. President?? How do you sleep???? or do you look around for someone else to blame??

This was quite obvious from the beginning. The countries that have changed the lives of their people for the better did that by first recognising them as human beings, the assets that can be valued and be bring about growth and prosperity for the nation. Our country did the opposite and it is still doing that. The public servants who are supposed to be the main drivers of the developmental agenda are seen as burden by the state. The laws in place are talking to the contrary but the government choose to ignore such legislations. As a result the country is said to be lacking in terms of skills and the right personnel to bring about change, it is not said especially by the business elite that this is intentional for the purpose of depriving the majority an opportunity to partake in the economy not as mere employees but rightful participants.

With this in place, there are still others celebrating as this will help them amass a lot as the developmental project that is meant to uplift the masses seems to fall by the wayside. Failure of the NDP is the boon for the looters and exploiters and a curse for previously disadvantaged and the impoverished, however, our government wont listen but do what is suggested by the rich elite business class, something that will benefit them at the expense of the majority, black, underprivileged community.

I agree 100% with everything you said as it is truth. Bar 1 amendmendment – “Black business elite”

With the ANC, 2010 goals became 2020 goals, which became 2030 goals – and so on.

All talk, no effective strategy. Cadres all compromised through corruption.

“SA unlikely to achieve NDP 2030 goals” – HAHAHA! No sh!t !

At no point will SA ever achieve NDP goals on time.

Lest we forget that we have an ANC government.

Delivery is non-existent – even at astronomical prices.

They have been planning and not achieving for 25 years. Lucky a new excuse why ne !!

The NPC recommends the government expands public work programs.
Most of these EPWP, expanded public work programs, and CWP, community work projects or programs are an absolute waste of money. At least what I have seen in our small town. Often groups of 4-25 people of which only 2 or 3 are occasionally doing something that cannot even be considered useful. Poorly supervised, they chat most of the day. As a well known outspoken economist once said : they dig a trench one day, to have it filled again the next day, and call it ” work” .
These programs highly reinforce the sense of entitlement, the Mahala culture. People are getting used and actually trained in very poor work ethics.
There is a massive TEID, Total Economic Ignorance and Denialism in SA, especially prevalent between our politicians. One cannot blame the majority of our populace on not having a great sense of efficiency and cost effectiveness,an understanding of economic competitiveness. This mostly has to come from the top. Especially the total lack of understanding of economic and financial basics is dire.
Clueless, brainless Ubuntu Gucci socialism, instead of liberal market capitalism with a few, but rather minimal social security measures and affordable grants to dampen the sometimes indeed very tough circumstances for the poor and vulnerable.
Money DOES NOT grow on trees.

Quote: “The rate of job creation was close to the NDP’s target for 2010 to 2015…….However, the commission said considerable ground has been lost since then…”

Hmmmm….good growth only up to 2015.

Now let’s revisit what happened in Dec 2015.
Oh wait…let me spell it out:

N E N E G A T E!

(…it was a wake-up call for SA business to realise that the ANC is running a corrupt banana republic. From here on, plenty of foreign acquisitions were made by SA companies…in the name of ‘diversification’, but between the lines it was “get your capital out of SA at whatever means possible”. Many acquisitions turned out to be a disaster, but it didn’t matter too much…as the real aim was to externalise funds)

THANK YOU, Mr.ZUMA!!

Whenever I visit showrooms like Bathroom Bizarre, Tile Africa or CTM, I gaze in amazement at the number of ‘zumas’ choices on offer in the bathroom section, from square low flow heads to round variable/twist heads.

Always a good laugh when reading you comments Mr. Michael, would love to meet up some day!

This quote is a bit long, but it describes the essence of the South African problem. We are one of the most socialist nations on earth. Socialism drives a continuous process of deindustrialisation, marked by rising inequality and rising unemployment. We don’t have to invent the wheel again. The South African disaster has been studied and described countless times before. We repeat failed dogma, implement failed tactics, that is why we are failing. The mere fact that we have a “plan” with the name of the NDP is the core of the problem. The more governments plan, the more entrepreneurs fail to plan.

ANC redistributive policies are a proven recipe for disaster.

“… anything that guarantees the private ownership of what each person creates and contributes to the production process, that defends the peaceful possession of what each person conceives or discovers, and that facilitates (or does not impede) voluntary exchanges (which are always mutually satisfactory in the sense that they mean an improvement for each party) generates prosperity, increases the population, and furthers the quantitative and qualitative advancement of civilization. Likewise, any attack on the peaceful possession of goods and on the property rights that pertain to them, any coercive manipulation of the free process of voluntary exchange, in short, any state intervention in a free market economy always brings about undesired effects, stifles individual initiative, corrupts moral and responsible behavior habits, makes the masses childish and irresponsible, hastens the decline of the social fabric, consumes accumulated wealth, and blocks the expansion of human population and the advancement of civilization, while everywhere increasing poverty.” – Prof. Jesús Huerta de Soto

When you are obsessed with race, sustainable economic progress is just about impossible. A lesson from Apartheid that the ANC know-it-alls cannot learn. Racial spite leads to terrible decision-making.

Anything to do with the ANC, I always assume the exact opposite!

For example. When speaking of “empowerment”,
Pray tell? How empowered are people meant to feel, whilst sitting there in the dark, waiting for the lights to come back on…?

Another naive article just repeating what we already know. Please rather write about how we can replace the ANC, which must be one of the most corrupt and thieving governments globally. There will be no economy in 2030 to write about on the current trajectory under the ANC.

Sunday morning. Electric just gone out again, when there’s low demand. So the politicized no-electron will ensure that we don’t meet our goals.

Just getting better. Now they gained another excuse that they can pick from: apartheid,20201 pandemic, etc.

We had such great plans – many of them and sadly all along this planning orgy most of us got sticky fingers . Yours in corruption – ANC.

I wanted to purchase a Lambo this weekend.

Unfortunately my son had to visit the doctor and I had to pay R380.00 cash.

Perhaps next weekend……

End of comments.

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