The double crises of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and China’s new pandemic lockdowns are jolting the world recovery by exacerbating inflation and hurting growth, according to new research from Bloomberg Economics.
Euro-area 2022 output is set to be about 2 percentage points lower than it would have otherwise been, while US gross domestic product may be 1.1 percentage point lower, economists Bhargavi Sakthivel, Björn van Roye and Tom Orlik wrote in a report published Thursday.
They assume a base case that sees China’s GDP slowing to 2% this year, Russia and Ukraine’s economies contracting 10% and 35% respectively, a commodity price shock, and a 12.5% drop in global equity prices.
The combined impact of those circumstances will push euro-area inflation 1.7 percentage point higher this year in that scenario, with US price growth seen up by about about 1.1 percentage point.
The economists’ adverse scenario envisages even slower growth in China, a bigger contraction in Russia and a larger stock-market slump.
The war on the euro area’s doorstep has impacted the region disproportionately, and is among the reasons why the European Central Bank is set to start hiking interest rates for the first time in more than a decade in July.
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