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How far the JSE’s biggest companies have fallen

More than 30% down for 23 of the 40 largest so far this year ….
With the brutal double whammy of Covid-19 and a massively lower oil price, some stocks are being hit harder than others. Image: Moneyweb

Market movements over the past week have been unlike anything we’ve ever seen before.

This was not driven by fear about the future of the global financial system as in 2008. This was – is – something far more primal, as it dawns on investors that over the short term at least, life as we know it is on pause. Economic activity is grinding to a near complete halt.

The forecast on Friday by Goldman Sachs, which sees US GDP in Q2 to be down 24% quarter-on-quarter, will weigh on markets this week.

This has simply never happened before (in Q4 2008, US GDP shrank by ‘only’ 8.4%).

Also, these were not cataclysmic drops a-la-Steinhoff in 2017. This was fairly indiscriminate selling across the board as investors fled to cash.

The result is that some blue-chip stocks are trading at levels investors have not seen for a decade or more.

Excluding the likes of Sasol and property counters, MTN Group last traded at this level (R35.66) in 2004 – over 15 years ago. Given the size and importance of its Nigerian operation, it is more exposed than most to the brutal double whammy of Covid-19 and a massively lower oil price. MTN is down 57% so far this year. In less than three months, R90 billion in market value has evaporated as it plummeted from R157 billion to R67 billion.

But the moves after the shock and uncertainty resulting from the (original) $5.2 billion fine in Nigeria in 2015 were far more severe. Then, MTN lost more than R200 billion in value as it cratered from R235 a share to just above R100.

 

Top 40 shares by market cap (not the JSE Top 40 Index)

Closing price
Fri 19 March
Market cap Year-to-date move Last at this level (excl 2020)
Prosus R1 026.30 R1.67trn -4% 2019
British American Tobacco R533.50 R1.31trn -12% 2019
AB InBev R750.00 R1.27trn -36% None
Naspers R2 155.00 R958bn -8% 2017*
BHP Group R232.82 R492bn -30% 2017
Richemont R97.18 R468bn -14% 2019
Glencore R25.34 R370bn -43% 2016
Anglo American R230.92 R316bn -43% 2017
Vodacom Group R119.37 R219bn 3% 2019
FirstRand Group R36.96 R207bn -42% 2015
Standard Bank R100.50 R163bn -41% 2016
Anglo American Platinum R514.62 R139bn -61% 2018
Mondi plc R265.37 R129bn -19% 2016
Sanlam R53.00 R110bn -33% 2015
Capitec Bank R970.23 R109bn -33% 2018
AngloGold Ashanti R263.70 R109bn -17% 2019
Kumba Iron Ore R291.34 R94bn -31% 2019
South 32 R18.83 R92bn -30% 2016
Absa Group R84.35 R72bn -44% 2009
MTN Group R35.66 R67bn -57% 2004
Bid Corporation R200.31 R67bn -40% None
RMB Holdings R46.09 R65bn -43% 2014
Gold Fields R77.56 R64bn -17% 2019
Shoprite Holdings R108.35 R64bn -13% 2011
Remgro R120.46 R64bn -38% 2012
Clicks Group R244.13 R61bn -4% 2019
Bidvest Group R160.33 R55bn -22% 2017*
Reinet Investments R268.28 R53bn -5% 2019
Sibanye Stillwater R19.36 R52bn -45% 2019
Old Mutual R10.74 R51bn -45% 2009
Aspen Pharmacare R104.84 R48bn -14% 2019
Impala Platinum R59.45 R47bn -59% 2019
Mediclinic International R60.84 R45bn -20% 2019
Discovery Holdings R67.75 R45bn -45% 2013
Nedbank Group R88.58 R44bn -59% 2009
Nepi Rockcastle R71.33 R42bn -43% None
MultiChoice Group R94.85 R42bn -17% None
Quilter plc R21.87 R42bn -27% 2019
Assore R288.29 R40bn 7% 2019
Growthpoint Properties R13.12 R40bn -41% 2009

* Excluding impact of Prosus, BidCorp unbundlings.

This shares-by-market-cap table does not adjust for combination of dual-listed stocks.

The country’s banks and insurers are down anything from 30 to 45%. Two of the better-rated ‘big four’, FirstRand (R36.96) and Standard Bank (R100.50), have declined 42% and 41% respectively to levels last seen in December 2015. The drops then were precipitated by the appointment of ‘weekend special’ Des van Rooyen as minister of finance before sanity (somewhat) prevailed. Insurer Sanlam’s stock is trading at a level last seen during that December as well.

Others have fared worse …

Discovery Holdings is at R67.75, a drop of 45%, to levels last seen in 2013. Aside from the obvious pressures related to Covid-19, some have pointed to forced selling emanating from a hedging structure initiated by CEO Adrian Gore in 2016.

 

Nedbank Group is down 59% so far this year, a decline exacerbated by it delivering the weakest 2019 financial performance of the major banks. The unexpected earnings decline rattled investors. Current levels of R88.58 were last seen in 2009, as the dust settled following the global financial crisis.

Former parent Old Mutual as well as Absa Group are also both back to levels last seen in 2009, at R10.74 and R84.35 respectively. Both are down around 44-45% this year.

After a rollercoaster week, shares in Capitec are ‘only’ down 33% in 2020. At R970.23, these levels were last seen following the attack on the bank by Viceroy Research.

Read: Fear and loathing grip Capitec

Declines among resource stocks have been even larger – around 60% in the case of major platinum counters – but these have mainly been in (at least) a four-year bull market.

 

A handful of the 40 largest companies on the JSE are trading at all-time lows. Anheuser-Busch InBev only listed in 2016 (following the takeover of rival SAB Miller) but at R750 is trading at less than half its post-listing peak (R1 735.86 in 2017).

Bid Corporation, unbundled from Bidvest in 2016, is trading 30% below the price it traded at post the demerger. Nepi Rockcastle, one of only two property counters still left in the 40 largest on the market (there are plenty still in the index itself, given the inherent lag), is trading at R71, around a third of its peak post the Nepi/Rockcastle merger of R216. Growthpoint is at R13, a level it last traded at in 2009.

MultiChoice (R94.85) is now below last year’s demerger level of R98 (the stock saw a subsequent rerating of around 30%).

Some companies, however, are holding up well.

These include Prosus, Naspers, Vodacom, Clicks, Reinet and Assore, whose declines have been under 10% in the year to date. Vodacom (+3%) and Assore (+7%) are actually up so far in 2020, but the latter is subject to a delisting at a significant premium which would distort matters.

Littered among the wreckage – no longer even near the 40 largest companies – are the former blue-chip shares. There, the declines have been larger and more vicious. A story for another day.

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COMMENTS   29

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Sentiment has pushed some of these shares to levels where they look attractive on valuation metrics. Sad situations is that many fund managers may not be able to allocate cash to take advantage of oppuruntiities. As asset flows have chased bond mandates there is very little new cash in the equities sector. Shrewd investors who focus on buying 1) good business models 2) low geared balancsheets should be ok

…the market has not yet bottomed out

When the up turn is about to happen …. cherry picking of the market will reward handsomely

we going to wait awhile for a upturn…. as long as Europe Burns …. and there is no cure…. things will fall.

Wait till the listed property sector gets correctly valued…

“SA’s listed property sector is drowning in a sea of problems. The latest facing the R470bn sector is a loss of credibility, particularly about how listed funds value their properties.”

Their property valuations often border on the fraudulent

Better update this article daily. The bottom could still be a long way down

The bottom could be a long way off, until it isn’t. Historically, turnarounds happen with no correlation to systemic events. The market will see light before the darkest day. By the time we see the light, it’s too late, the turn has already happened.

Not to worry say the Pension fund administators : We still get our full Management fee every month !!!
Most Pensioners over the last 15 years would have been better off with a fixed deposit !!!

Always good to know a CEO has a MONSTROUS put against his own company. Typical corporate pirate – nice one Discovery … not

and who might this be … from Discovery? Gore?

Yes, see David Shapiro’s quote in the article. How does a board give its CEO a put? What the actual … !!

Enquiring minds would love to know more detail on this.

Ahhh… found it ….

Weakness in Discovery probably associated with Adrian Gore’s put options (right to sell) 4.393m shares at R83.16 and 4.393m shares at R93.96, exercisable in 26 equal tranches, from 19/3/20 to 15/6/20. Means bankers who wrote deal need to offload 676k shares a week for next 13 wks

ok…. not on…. so he does not value his company …

I think this was planned well ahead… NHI???

However Corona hit first though.

Says alot about Gores confidence in his company and how he sees the future in South Africa (heading downhill … which is not hard to see

Any bets out there on the best bets??

Sasol, Mtn, Capitec, Discovery – not necessarily in that order.

they still all toooooo expensive

The US$ and … the US$

After last week’s “fear and loathing hit Capitec” fake news headline, a bit of fast backtracking. Capitec has actually fallen the least of the 5 big banks, on today’s JSE news.

Fear and loathing did hit Capitec – did you not see the intraday moves? The article made the point that these fears were likely overblown.

Definition of loathing

: extreme disgust : detestation She regarded his hypocrisy with loathing.

Sasol still tanking….I thought R30 was cheap….. its now R22.50….. I think they going to be wiped out.

Put in an order at R24, no takers.
Short sellers having a great time.

Is it only me, or am I seeing lower trade volumes? It is never a good sign when low volumes decimates the market value, because it means panickers are panicking and selling off, where a bit of circumspection would have been better. The other argument is that the world economy needed a wobble (the boom bust argument). So it doesn’t really matter what Joe Soap does, the market WILL be forced down. My sympathies are with pensioner (or those who need the money urgently). If you have to sell now, you will lose out big time. If at all possible, one should just sit tight and let this madness pass.

hereshoping
Has anyone heard of any persons personel pet getting the virus. It just seems odd that not a single dog or cat has died, just a thought.

So if you HAD to invest R1m in three shares, which ones with a 31Dec2020 timeframe:

AB InBev & BAT sensible bets

Sasol as a speculative?

the problem with Sasol is the debt ….

Brent might recover but the debt is a concern….
If Brent falls …they in Trouble….only the efficient will survive … then look at Saudi Aramco

Well I was thinking people will drink & smoke through the drama. And on Sasol, if oil spikes up, at least your Sasol profits might compensate for the pain at the pump :/

End of comments.

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