Strong ANC win would boost South African asset prices, Goldman says

The ANC’s margin of victory is key to determining if Ramaphosa is able to deliver on pledges to revive flagging economic growth.
Colin Coleman, head of sub-Saharan Africa at Goldman Sachs Group. Picture: Bloomberg

A strong win for South African President Cyril Ramaphosa’s African National Congress in next week’s election would trigger a rally in asset prices, according to Colin Coleman, head of sub-Saharan Africa at Goldman Sachs Group.

“We need to get out of this election a strong mandate for structural reforms,” Coleman said in an interview on Bloomberg Television on Wednesday. Support of 60% would give Ramaphosa the “political space to implement his modernisation agenda, including trying to effectively get the state-owned enterprises and a raft of economic reforms firmly in place.”

With South Africans scheduled to vote on May 8, opinion polls are suggesting the ruling ANC will win enough votes to remain in power. The margin of victory, however, is key to determining if Ramaphosa is able to deliver on pledges to revive flagging economic growth, bring rampant corruption under control and address a 27% unemployment rate.

Read: South Africa’s outlook post May 8

Estimates of support for the ANC range from 51% to 61%, with the opposition Democratic Alliance garnering between 19% and 24%, according to surveys by polling firms and research institutes. Julius Malema’s Economic Freedom Fighters, currently the third-largest party, is seeing support of 11% to 14%, the polls show.

Were the ANC to reach the 60%-mark, “then the market will be very bullish,” Coleman said. Anything below that level would limit Ramaphosa’s ability to make the changes he wants, he said.

© 2019 Bloomberg L.P



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The Economist and Goldman Sachs must be in the same Whatsapp group.

Goldman suckles at the ANC teet… Colin and Cyril are best mates, what else would you expect from Colin, his mate is the president and he will do his part to campaign… Managing the ANC relationship is Colin’s job…

The Goldmans sponsored the ANC terrorism in SA, they work rather well with African dictators.. just look at the Congo

Bloomberg writes: ‘The margin of victory, however, is key to determining if Ramaphosa is able to deliver …’

1. Whose opinion is this? It is not attributed as a quote to Coleman.
2. What is the rationale for stating that the one (ability to deliver) is a concomitant (CR’s favourite word) of the other. The Economist newspaper, Coleman and Bloomberg are entitled to their opinion that a greater margin of victory will empower CR to become a better leader in the interests of the country as a whole, but in my opinion they have seriously:
– underestimated the Byzantine and toxic nature of the ANC which has evolved from a credible liberation movement, albeit tainted by some cold war realpolitik, to a bowel movement.
– overestimated the competence and leadership ability of CR.

Am I missing something here?

Surely 51% is enough for the ANC to implement reforms. Why 60%, why margin of error important, why would that be bullish for the market?

The market has already priced in an ANC victory and so called reforms and clearly it doesn’t think they’re worth all that much.

Look I hope so even if gust feel is the opposite. Then at least I can sell at decent prices.

Has this Coleman knob actually ever been to SA? Anyone who thinks more of the anc will be good for this country has not been here in the last two decades, or Goldman is taking the other side of the “positive outcome” trade and are looking to profit off other peoples hardships?

SAM has difficulty taking this fellow Coleman seriously. He has a colossal USD pension from GS as well as a huge art collection so can run off to Portugal at any time. An ANC landslide will still mean corruption, crime, 17 m+ basic income grants, colossal unemployment, low growth, rubbish education, NHI pie in the sky ,bust SOEs, BEE and clever and young or rich people leaving etc.

Inherently the ANC is corrupt, criminal,incompetent and incapable. 25 years of non delivery is evidence of this!

As a financial analyst once said — if goldman sachs says buy then its probably time to sell.

JP Morgan and RMB have more weight for me, granted not everyone feels the same way.

It can be argued that it was the ANC that caused the asset prices to drop in the first place. In fact, by admission, Ramaposer said the ANC allowed state capture. How can a strong victory for the ANC do anything other than make more money leave the country. If this is this way sensible financial people “in the know” work with money its no wonder we are where we are, probably also the reason this guy got posted to Africa – very little here makes sense so he fits in well. Lets give more money to the party who steals it. A strong victory for the ANC means voters want a higher level of poverty. If not, why keep voting for the party of poverty?

I cannot believe that a supposedly rational man with a seriously senior (and probably overly well paid job, which should indicate that he cannot be a moron) can espouse that more votes for the ANC will improve their ability to govern.
Ramaphosa serves as president of SA at the pleasure of the ANC. Even if he personally can be trusted (of which I’m not convinced) he can be ousted by the ANC as easily as Mbeki or Zuma.
The ANC will do as they want – as shown over the last 25 years – as long as they have any majority in parliament.
The only way to rein them in is to have an ANC at less than 50%.

End of comments.





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