Pandemic deaths in SA much higher than reported

Most of the 222 000 excess deaths over the past year are probably related to Covid-19.
The synchronicity of excess deaths with the waves of the pandemic leaves ‘no doubt’ that most of the deaths resulted from Covid-19. Image: Guillem Sartorio/AFP/Getty Images

A cursory look at the latest report on weekly deaths in SA, published by the South African Medical Research Council (SAMRC) in collaboration with the University of Cape Town’s Actuarial Research unit, calls attention to the increase in deaths in SA to unprecedented levels.

It immediately shows up an anomaly between government’s official figures of Covid-19 deaths and thousands of other unusual deaths.

The latest figures from the Department of Health – issued on Friday (August 6) – show that 74 352 people lost their lives due to Covid-19 since the first reported deaths at the end of March 2020, but the SAMRC says there have been 222 500 “excess deaths” from natural causes since May 3, 2020.

The report states that there is no universal definition, or understanding, of what is meant by excess mortality, explaining it as a “term used in epidemiology and public health that refers to the number of deaths that are occurring above what we would normally expect”.

The World Health Organisation (WHO) uses the term to describe mortality above the expected mortality rate, when there isn’t a crisis causing unusual deaths. During a crisis, whether a violent uprising or a pandemic, the deaths above this normal death rate would be classified as excess deaths.


Correlation with Covid-19 waves

The immediate indication that Covid-19 might be the cause of excess deaths in SA is the close correlation between the periodical increase in registered Covid-19 deaths and the increase in the total death rate.

The total number of deaths in SA increased sharply whenever Covid-19 deaths increased, and the numbers are huge.

During the so-called second wave of infections and deaths (June and July 2021), the number of excess deaths from all causes in SA increased to a peak of nearly 10 000 per week for two weeks running. In just five weeks, excess deaths amounted to 42 458.

This is the loss of life above the normal occurrence of people passing away in SA as part of the normal cycle of life, including tragic untimely deaths.

Weekly deaths in SA from all causes

Source: SAMRC

Professor Debbie Bradshaw, chief specialist scientist at the SAMRC, says that while the research body does not have access to definitive information about causes of death, evaluation of the available data leads to the conclusion that the gap between known Covid-19 deaths and other excess deaths is mostly due to an under-reporting of Covid-19 deaths.

“Given the close spatio-temporal correlation of the increase in deaths with the spread of SARS-CoV-2, we are of the view that the majority of the excess deaths are related to Covid-19,” says Bradshaw.

She indicates that sources of data referring to causes of death are often inaccurate, using the history of reporting deaths due to HIV[-related illness] to explain the shortcomings in reporting procedures.

Mortality trends

“We have been tracking the mortality trends in SA for many years, making use of multiple sources of data. We observed the dramatic increase in mortality associated with HIV.

“Since about 2006, there has been a decline in mortality rates in the country mostly associated with the roll-out of anti-retroviral treatments and the reduction in the numbers of deaths from HIV[-related illness].

“We have learnt to interpret the data very cautiously as there are high proportions without a defined cause of death and extensive misclassification of the cause. For example, doctors often avoid recording HIV, and often report a pseudonym such as ‘retro-viral disease’ or ‘immune-suppression’.

“Another example is that the number of homicides is under-reported because there is no space on the form for the pathologist to indicate this manner of death,” says Bradshaw.

No doubt

During 2020, the SAMRC set up a rapid reporting system based on the numbers of registered deaths. Unfortunately, the system cannot provide information on the cause of death other than whether it was a natural cause or an unnatural cause.

“We have used this to estimate the number of excess deaths that occurred. We believe that the major change has been as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic. Injury deaths, in particular road traffic injuries and homicides, decreased.

“Given the age pattern [mostly over the age of 60] and synchronicity of the excess deaths with the waves of the pandemic, we are left with no doubt that most of the deaths have resulted from Covid-19,” says Bradshaw.

She says the increase in excess deaths is not unique to SA. “The pandemic has probably reached every country in the world – but the impact has been extremely varied for a number of factors which are probably still needing to be explained.

“While the younger age of the SA population was expected to reduce the impact, the high prevalence of hypertension, diabetes, HIV and tuberculosis has aggravated the mortality rate,” say Bradshaw.

It is plausible that people with underlying health problems and/or unhealthy eating and lifestyle habits are more at risk.

Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) published its most recent report on the causes of mortality in SA only a few weeks ago. While the figures are dated – the report is based on 2018 mortality numbers – it gives a good reference to what people in SA normally die from.

The report states that health trends are constantly evolving as observed from the global shift from communicable to non-communicable diseases, which continue to rise. “Since 2000, the largest increase in deaths has been from ischaemic heart disease, accounting for 16% of the world’s deaths,” says the report, quoting WHO research. “Many premature deaths are associated with environmental factors or lifestyle choices, such as tobacco use, unhealthy diet, physical inactivity and unhealthy consumption of alcohol.”

SA was winning

The introduction to the report mentions that mortality levels in SA have been declining yearly, falling by 25.3% between 2006 and 2017.

Six of the top 10 leading underlying natural causes of death in 2017 were non-communicable diseases, with diabetes being the leading cause of death, according to the report.

Of the 454 014 registered deaths in 2018 in SA, 88% were from natural causes, with the biggest killer classified as diseases of the circulatory system. It accounted for nearly 19% of all natural deaths.

Communicable diseases (such as tuberculosis, pneumonia, diarrhoea, malaria and measles) declined from a peak of 48% of all deaths in 2005 to less than 29% in 2018. It is important to note that this category includes deaths from malnutrition. The decline in these deaths indicates that SA was winning the war against disease and poverty.

During the same period, non-communicable diseases (including cancer, diabetes, heart disease and asthma) increased from 43% of all deaths to more than 59%. Seemingly, the unintended results of the improvement in living standards.

External causes of mortality such as accidents, homicide and suicide increased slightly, from 9% to 12% of all recorded deaths.

The Covid-19 pandemic seems to have changed all this, if the SAMRC conclusions about causes of deaths are correct.

The 222 000 excess deaths all fall within the parameters of communicable diseases, whether somebody died directly from the virus or by malnutrition brought on by increased economic hardship.

SA is not unique. “It is extremely difficult to monitor the global impact as many countries do not have robust data,” says Bradshaw. “For example, during 2020, we had similar numbers of excess deaths to the UK. However, that situation has changed completely as the UK has implemented an extensive vaccination programme.”

Government and society can contribute to a reduction in deaths, according to the SAMRC. It repeats the tried-and-tested precautions to reduce the risk of transmission: avoid crowded places, wear a mask, and sanitise.

In addition, it warns people to isolate if they show symptoms or have been exposed to somebody who has contracted Covid-19.

Vaccination lagging

Bradshaw indicates that the vaccination programme should be accelerated, which includes overcoming mounting hesitancy about being vaccinated.

SA seems to be far behind in vaccinations. The latest figures from the Department of Health show that just more than 8.5 million doses of vaccinations have been administered to just more than 6.8 million people.

Far fewer people are fully vaccinated than the numbers suggest.

Only 1.8 million have received the single dose Johnson & Johnson vaccine. The numbers of administrations are bulked up by the more than 6.7 million doses of the two-dose Pfizer vaccine that have been administered.

However, only slightly more than 1.7 million people have received both Pfizer doses, indicating that, to date, only 3.50 million people in SA have been fully vaccinated. (The government’s coronavirus information portal says the numbers are somewhat dated because some paper-based records take longer to capture and reflect on the database.)

What this means is that 8.75% of South Africa’s adult population of around 40 million people have been vaccinated so far, and 5.8% of the total population.

Listen: Dr Glenda Gray, president and CEO of SAMRC, shares her views on the Covid-19 pandemic and vaccines



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The data mining would be more credible if we had at least one autopsy report that proved something. Having zero real evidence is just a tad shabby.

I’m not quite following you. We don’t have autopsies so we didn’t see more people dying?

True. You are not following. Try looking for the verified clinical evidence of a single Covid death. One that provides a proven association with the Covid itself. This is not being done because it is not possible to do it. Thereby there is no real, actual, verifiable evidence of any “Covid” death.

You’re argument is thus that COVID has not killed a single person? I’m assuming you’re a doctor or other medical specialist otherwise you’re view is lunacy

The point is that there is no certainty.

Can you please supply another possible cause for the excess deaths then?

I could provide dozens of links to the publications of not just a lone qualified, experienced and respected by peers expert but groups of them. But this platform prevents such links being given by those with opinions that are not in line with the bought and paid for doctrine that society is being indoctrinated with. The truth is out there. I can still access it without too much effort, so can you. But you had better get with it. It is under increasing attack with the full support of the newly indoctrinated majority.

Likely cause of the increase in deaths? Chronic mask wearing (coupled with unjustified rampant fear mongering) is literally poisoning and suffocating people to death. This is common sense but unfortunately we live in a paradigm where common sense is a commodity that is in short supply!

Note that we do not have tangible proof of the isolated, purified form of this so-called SARS-CoV-2 virus (let alone concrete proof of it being an agent for illness!); all we are presented with are computer generated fantasy models of genetic sequences:

By implication then, the so-called Covid tests and vaccines are a fraud as well!

Read The Contagion Myth by Dr Thomas Cowan to understand the definitive causative agents for illness as well as the common sense scientific approach to prove cause-and-effect with regard to alleged agents of disease.

The “official” COVID-19 narrative is arguably one of the biggest lies in the history of human civilisation!

The key trait of critical thinking – rather than blind following of “authority” and the “herd” – needs to be reawakened in much of our society!

Yes….South Africans ( especially tax and rate payers) are sick to death of the theft corruption and fraud perpetrated by the fractured ANC!

@ Intuitive . You know what’s worse than the blind following the blind? … The dumb following the dumb!

What else are you in denial about ?

The search for the truth is not easy. Asking a simple question or making a simple observation can be so unacceptable that the search can cost a person their life. In history this has been the case on countless occasions. The sorrowfully indoctrinated are so fearful and hopeless that such things just happen. I do not deny the extremities of human behavior. It depends on the extent of their fear. Regardless of the risk, I will ask you to tell me what it is about me that you are so afraid of?

Interesting. Up to now, it was widely believed that any deaths without obvious causes were automatically written up as Covid-related, because it was easily believable and unlikely to be questioned. Now we are being told exactly the opposite. Which version is correct?

Exactly spot on. I brought the all cause mortality figures the other day. Seems they are scurrying to explain the fact that crude mortality figures have not changed significantly. They use excess deaths, which are modelled as obfuscation. Now they have doubled blocked themselves. They have exact numbers for covid deaths and excess deaths but suddenly the all cause figures are from 2018. Pull the other one.
Oh what a tangled web we weave/When first we practice to deceive.

The answer is to understand the difference between “widely believed” and scientific analysis of epidemiological data.

@carwriter – I have not seen an article on MW stating that ANY unknown death was being written up to Covid. I know socially that people have been saying this as well as that amongst other things the WHO was giving money for every Covid death (I think this originated from that book of knowledge FB). However MW has reported before on excess deaths. Another reliable source of excess deaths is reporting by OM and Liberty which has been reported on with the later on last week. This will be reliable as who in their right mind is not going to claim free money.

Being resident in Gauteng during this last wave was enough proof for me without even considering the Data with 70% of family members now already had Covid and with at the most bi daily reports of deaths of colleagues, customers and acquaintances.

It takes a special kind of african thinking to ascribe all ‘we are being tolds’ equal value and veracity.

You can’t argue with mortality data. Many more lost their lives. It correlates with the pandemic. You can come up with lots of arguments and claim people choked on their masks or died from alcohol withdrawal syndrome or anxiety induced by isolation or lack of elective surgery or anything else that supports your view that the Covid mortality rate is less than 0.2% (as is claimed daily on social media). Go for it. Keep on believing there is no real pandemic and it’s all a scam by bored billionaires who want to inject us with mind controlling substances in order to play bumper cars with the hapless populace.

Just don’t ignore hard facts that shows a real spike in mortality. Please, try to at least get that part right.

It’s a great pity the Moneyweb article did not provide [at least as far as I can tell] a direct link to the SAMRC research just released.

Here is where you will find it – and those graphs tell no lies – just facts.

Interesting to see how the provinces with high deaths correlate so well with Covid-19 waves – while those with really low numbers are a bit wobbly. Serves to confirm the veracity of the results and the undeniable correlation to the prevalence of the disease.

The numbers are from the modelling based on assumptions. The body count is theoretical. This is fiction presented as fear mongering fact, as usual. This issue has been covered in detail on the Moneyweb comments.

Make sure then to consult the moneyweb comment section next time you need medical advice, you wouldn’t want any “theoretical” medical advice from someone who actually went to university.

I have recently endured the seasonal flu. My unadulterated immune system did its inordinate thing yet again. Here I am to prove that even when over 70 there is no reason to fear provided that that you are still healthy and give consideration to what your physical health requires. In my case I have no threats to my health, for which I know that I should give thanks.
Now leave me be. I do not belong to you or your indoctrinated fear.

When I did a stats course at University many years ago, the lecture had the quip that there are lies, damn lies and statistics, in that order. Stats can be manipulated to suit the narrative you are driving.

And then there is the damn truth staring right at you: healthy people and sick people are dying around you. If you know no family member or friend that died of this sickness you are most fortunate.

yes, almost as easily as making up stuff with no data whatsoever.

In South Africa, where the ultra corrupt ANC and its Covid-19 Command Council are running things it was bound to be way off the mark in terms of accuracy of deaths reported.

The other complications South Africa has is the 5 to 10 million illegal immigrants (illegal economic migrants, another ANC issue) in the country. None of them are going to be vaccinated, thereby causing this significant sized group to continue to complicate the resolution of the Covid-19 spread.

Nature is trying to bail us out. We are trying to prevent nature from solving its biggest problem.

When we look at the issue from nature’s perspective, it is clear that we don’t have an excess deaths problem, but that we are confronted by a deadly excess births catastrophe. Viruses develop naturally in any environment where there is an overpopulation of the host organism. Viruses infect, and multiply in chickens, ostriches, pigs, cattle, and humans when overpopulation has a negative impact on the health and immune system of the host population.

The virus is a logical and natural consequence of overpopulation and an unhealthy living environment. Nature is trying to restore balance, or bring equilibrium between the availability of life-sustaining resources and the size of the population. Nature is only doing what it has been doing for the last billion years.

Seen from this perspective, we can understand why lockdown measures are so counterproductive. These manifestations of economic ignorance kill economic activity and jobs, force people into more deprived circumstances, and exacerbate the original cause of the disease.

We complain about overpopulation and poverty on one social media page, and then we demand our AIDS medication, vaccines, feeding schemes, and free health services on the next.

Excellent analysis.! Until this government sees education and birth control as critical to SA’ s survival – nothing will change.

Comment removed

Such an edgelord.

Classic Bib/Bibby comment.

The fact that this number is 3 x the covid death number is scary in its own way and I would like to see how this number stacks up on a country by country basis.
Here are my questions on this article.
Firstly we say that “Most of the 222 000 excess deaths over the past year are probably related to Covid-19″ and then Professor Debbie Bradshaw, chief specialist scientist at the SAMRC, says that while the research body does not have access to definitive information about causes of death, evaluation of the available data leads to the conclusion that the gap between known Covid-19 deaths and other excess deaths is mostly due to an under-reporting of Covid-19 deaths”
I realize that I may be stupid but surely given the pandemic this is something that we should be tracking. During the so-called second wave of infections and deaths (June and July 2021), the number of excess deaths from all causes in SA increased to a peak of nearly 10 000 per week for two weeks running. In just five weeks, excess deaths amounted to 42 458.
This is an astronomical jump in numbers in what appears to be very short space of time. Given the number of well trained and qualified experts and medical institutes even with an incompetent government running the show there is now excuse for not knowing or tracking this number.
How are accurate or well planned are our health care policy decisions around health care if we cannot even track why people are dying today never mind tomorrow.
Please do not tell us that you have ben so busy managing a pandemic that this was not a priority because, if that is the case then no wonder this is whole things is such a mess.
I am probably going to have my post deleted for my next comment but here goes anyway. What is the one thing that has changed in the last year and bit since March 2020 apart from the COVID pandemic, the lockdowns and oh the corruption of COVID funds.
I will put it down in date form – 17th February 2021.

Try to get a non-corrupted, professionally audited body count from any non-corrupted professional source that is prepared to sign it and publicly stand by it. What is being presented here is data that has been paid for using a unique modelling system that was dreamed up especially for the purpose.

I am more in line with your thinking Gargoyl, we are being fed a host of crap about this pandemic. Most of it is not believable.

@Little Poor Man
Equipped only with inherited basic faculties and the fortune of a resilient goodness within the guidance received throughout my childhood development, I must conceive that this clearly political onslaught upon the fabric of humanity, which rides upon the myth of a (highly profitable, for some) so-called pandemic, makes itself the greatest threat against our unique species in all of creation. Survival of what we once had depends upon the effort to understand and oppose it, which needs to be (at the very least) proportionate. People are rapidly realizing that they have not only been duped but are being taken to the abattoir.

Thanks for your good post … From my side I think that during a highly publicized virus outbreak a large percentage of people especially the vulnerable would delay going to clinics and hospitals because of their fear of the virus which would lead to their death of various causes, also I think maybe the curfews can lead to more car accident deaths and probably more people delaying going to clinics and hospitals or not finding transportation in time to the hospital because of the curfew and restrictions which would lead to more deaths, otherwise there’s the increased stress and anxiety levels and general health deterioration because of the lockdowns and curfews and increased restriction on Sport activities, Gyms and public parks which would lead to increased deaths of various causes.

And starvation or malnutrition resulting in weakened immune systems through loss of jobs and income because of the lockdowns?

And especially when lockdowns are hardened (during an outbreak), many people lose their income, and so they delay any medical procedures or checkups till their income resume (or for fear of catching the virus at the hospital), they delay till after the lockdowns are less severe, but this can be fatal especially for the older or vulnerable.

External causes of mortality such as accidents, homicide and suicide increased slightly, from 9% to 12% of all recorded deaths.

ER….Hello…30% is not slight…
Like all articles on data analysis it’s how it’s framed.

“bla bla bla” fear mongering “bla bla bla”.
Wake up! Think logically! Ask questions….

Consult with some of those many that seek the truth.. ukcolumn dot org

As interesting this debate is, I feel this is in real bad taste to those that has lost family and friends or suffered due to the effect on the economy.
Real or perceived, under or over reported, this has had real impacts on people’s lives and wellbeing as behind these statistics there are people hurting.

Sadly lacking is the input of real frontline workers that see and deal with this on a daily basis.

Now that is a opinion I would respect on the subject.

As a specialist dealing with CoVid cases on a daily basis since March 2020, and witnessing the chest x-rays of patients who die and of those who recover with irreversible, severe lung damage, I can promise you that this illness is real, dangerous, and indiscriminate.

Causes of death include heart failure from waterlogged lungs that are unable to exchange sufficient gas to survive (due to diffuse alveolar damage), or from tiny bleeds from capillaries in multiple body organs causing strokes or heart muscle damage.

@ gargoyle :
There are several publications of multiple autopsies, such as the Mount Sinai COVID-19 autopsy experience (Modern Pathology, April 2021)that document the effects of the virus on multiple organ systems in multiple patients.

Your original post is quite simply wrong.

You really need to reconsider your opinion, unless you are a histopathologist or virologist, which I suspect you aren’t.

I cannot but agree with you as I do respect and feel for the people who have lost people in this report number. However a part of me and I think most of the commenters in this article certainly feel that most of this loss could have been prevented and was largely unnecessary. The forces at play here are the people who maybe should be reading your comment and hanging their head in shame. Government, media and pharmaceuticals alike all have a role to play in this saga. All this has been built around the narrative of COVID, vaccinations ad lockdowns.


From their own methodology notes below. Let me know if this sounds like fishy accounting to you :

“Estimates of the number of excess deaths were introduced in the report on weekly deaths prepared at the end of June 2020. The number of excess deaths is generally calculated as the number of all-cause deaths in that week less the number that might be expected to have occurred. In the case of South Africa, it became apparent that the stringent lockdown implemented at the end of March reduced the number of deaths from unnatural causes significantly, making it important for the computation of excess deaths to focus on deaths from natural causes in order for the excess to more closely reflect the direct impact of the epidemic. This was important in the South African setting where unnatural deaths account for about 12% of the deaths. However, the lockdown also reduced the number of deaths from nonCOVID natural causes.”

“The estimation of the number of COVID-19 and collateral (i.e., deaths arising as a result of the impact of SARS-C0V-2 epidemic and the management of this on the provision of health care) deaths is not straight-forward. Aside from focussing on the excess of natural deaths
to remove the influence of reductions in unnatural deaths, it was observed that during lockdown at the start of the epidemic in 2020 the number of deaths due to natural causes fell well below the predicted number.”

Sounds to me like rubbish in, rubbish out. Someone had the conclusion in mind and then set out the methodology to suit. Took out the data they felt like, and exaggerated the data they wanted. OVERALL MORTALITY WAS UNAFFECTED DURING 2020. They even say it themselves.

Another gem: “The analysis of excess deaths has revealed extraordinary insights into mortality trends in the country. For example, during the early part of 2020, it became clear that the impact of lockdown and the use of nonpharmaceutical interventions led to a prevention of large numbers of expected deaths due to influenza and other respiratory viruses.” Sure. Flu and other respiratory viruses disappeared but covid raged. Only academics could be this dumb?

Essential reference – A preview of the book ‘Corona Unmasked’ at
Tinyurl dot com/h46mf7hu

Whoever wrote that paragraph should add a Phd in BS to their resume. When I first read that paragraph I started looking for all cause mortality rates, those figures should show whether a country has experienced some extraordinary event that caused a mass die off. Crude all cause mortality figures do not bear this out. However we have had about ten years of relatively benign flu seasons, could we not expect a lot of people to have aged more than the norm, would these people and others with co-morbidities not be overly susceptible when a severe respiratory illness does come along. Bear in mind that almost no one died from any respiratory illness last year apart from covid, this is according to the ‘experts’ who are perplexed by this phenomenon who put it down to the masks and anti social distancing. You could not make this up. Last year roughly 560000 people would have been expected to die, according to the size of our population and using the previous two years 9.4 deaths per thousand. So, did 800000 thousand people die last year, if yes then I concede we had a pandemic, if our figure is only slightly more than 560000 then what we has was a reclassification of deaths to make them all covid.

Conspiracy theorists and Covid deniers unite at Moneyweb! Just shows me why its so easy to generate alpha in SA. Explain to me why almost all of the unreported excess deaths are in the SA provinces where we know medical services are failing our citizens. Explain to me why the pattern of excess deaths occur in perfect correlation with the waves of infections unless the infections are causing the deaths.

Well you sort of answer your question here but make an assumption that we are all conspiracy theorists. The fact that people are dying is not a theory and the fact that they are dying in sync with waves does not mean that we are in denial of COVID. In fact I don’t think anybody here can, is or will argue that our health structures have failed. People are dying because we have managed COVID poorly from the start. At the first lockdown we ere told this was to allow government to improve health care capacity and a bunch of other lame reasons. We all know how that worked out. We built capacity and then very cleverly closed them all down shortly thereafter. When the next wave came that capacity was no longer available and therefore many people who needed other medical treatment could not get the care they needed. Let me know if this sounds like denial or conspiracy. We have a medical continuously divided about treatment of covid and a media who continue sensor all available MEDICAL treatment options. Even worse many of these doctors are being chastised as for medical opinion. I always look at the background of the expert before I pay attention to the person, in other words if the opinion comes out of the mouth of a practising doctor as opposed to a career politician or reader seeking journalist then I will at least pay attention to what they saying even if I don’t necessarily agree or understand. Not every doctor out there has an axe to grind with a pharmaceutical company or is looking to commit career suicide by have a different opinion. The first two phrases in the beginning were “flatten the curve” and “Herd mentality”. The narrative “Herd Mentality” fitted perfectly with the vaccine path and now, we are told that “herd mentality” is no longer achievable. I really believe that what was actually needed here was a mixed approached to treatments. Furthermore, I remember speaking to our family doctor who has been treating our family for some 30 years now. He told me that the medical fraternity has been warning about a flu type pandemic coming which was already in fact overdue. If this was was the case and I have not reason to disbelieve this as I have heard this repeatedly of late, then why were we not working on immunity improvement back then. By this I don’t mean vaccines but rather improving the actual immunity system itself. The human immune system is truly one of the sophisticated and wonderful systems known to man, better understanding of this and the tools to keep your immune system would be worth a fortune today. While the number of people who have died after being infected by covid is way too many and truly very sad. The positive here is that literally millions of people have either got it an recovered with little or no medical intervention. Even more so billions of people have not even been infected even though they have come into contact with the virus. The human immune system needs to be given much ore credit that it has got to date. If this comment makes me a conspiracy theorist then so be it.

End of comments.



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