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SA coronavirus death toll breaches 40 000 mark

SA has more than triple the number of cases in any other African nation.
Image: T. Narayan, Bloomberg
Almost 10 months after the first coronavirus case was detected in South Africa, the official death toll of those diagnosed with the disease has breached the 40,000 mark.

The country now has almost 1.4 million confirmed cases – more than triple the number of any other African nation. That may in part be due to the fact that it has conducted almost 7.9 million tests, way more than its continental peers.

Even so, there have been testing constraints and both the number of infections and fatalities released by South Africa’s Health Ministry remain considerably understated — as evidenced by excess-death reports published by the South African Medical Research Council.

A second wave of infections has largely been driven by a new strain of the virus that studies show is about 50% more transmissible than earlier versions. The test positivity rate has however slowed over the past week to 19%, from a peak of 35%, and there had been a promising decline in hospital admissions, the Ministry of Health said in a statement on Friday

© 2021 Bloomberg L.P.

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The number of positives should be compared with the number of tests involved. If this ratio has not changed then the test itself is meaningless. If the test is meaningless then the number of deaths are also affected, being due to using a positive test result in the 28 days before death as the ruling for the attribution. The PCR test cycles should never be more than 35 at most because too many cycles results in false positives. The test should only be used when symptoms exist and then not more than 25 cycles for more reliable results. The art of misleading with numbers is as old as Methuselah and evidently in increasing use to this very day.

Let’s do a cost benefit analysis.

1.) Let’s assume that 40 000 deaths from
COVID is correct. Some of these deaths will not be from the virus but will be recorded as such. But then some people would have died from the virus and not reported it. So let’s assume 40 000. Let’s also assume that the number of infected is more like 1.6 million since many people won’t have been tested. 40 000 / 1600 000 = 0.25 that is a death rate of 2.5%. Let’s raise this to 4% or even 5%. So then according to you 95-96% of people DO NOT DIE.

2.) Now let’s look at the depression, loss of jobs, corruption, anger, domestic abuse… my educated is is that more then 5% of South Africans have suffered because of the lockdown.

Um…. It is clear that the hard lockdown imposed by the ANC does is not proportionate to the severity of the virus. The costs of our style of lockdown outweigh the benefits.

End of comments.

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