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SA sees Covid-19 fourth wave starting in early December

And to last about 75 days, Salim Abdool Karim has said.
Image: Bloomberg

South Africa expects a fourth wave of coronavirus infections to start around December 2 and to last about 75 days, Salim Abdool Karim, former chairman of the government’s ministerial advisory committee on Covid-19, said.

The government is assuming that the wave will follow a similar pattern to that of the third wave and that there will be a new variant by then, he said in a Government Technical Advisory Centre conference.

Data is suggesting the current wave will end about August 26, he said.

In a report on Wednesday, NKC African Economics says the speculated fourth wave and the containment measures put in place during that time will be very much dependent on the vaccination drive and the efficacy of the vaccines against new mutations. “South Africa’s vaccination drive has been moving through the gears the last couple of months and is picking up speed, after being stuck in first gear for the majority of H1 [the first half of 2021].

“As of August 16, almost 9.6 million people have received at least one jab, while roughly 4.2 million people have been fully vaccinated. Using the latest statistics and assuming the government sticks to current vaccination rates, we project that 24.3 million people will have received at least one inoculation, while almost 13.8 million will be fully vaccinated. This will be about 34.5% of the end-goal, which is 40 million people,” write economists at NKC African Economics, Petro van Eck and Greg Struyweg.

“Nevertheless, the country has used mostly a two-jab vaccine, therefore, should authorities be able to use a one-shot vaccine the ratios could improve considerably. As such, the pressure on hospital units would be less severe and subsequently we could see less restrictions and a lower impact on economic activity.”


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Yep, it’s seasonal, and unaffected by lockdowns.

We should at least be completely open in between the waves when cases and deaths are insignificant.

And we are no longer in a State of Emergency. That status should be ended promptly, and definitely not extended past September. But with that state of emergency comes power and control of our lives that is too tempting for politicians to give up.

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You have no idea what you are talking about, you have no expertise or authority on the matter and what you say go against global universal medical recommendations without even as much as a link to a reference (I don’t need a link to call you out because any and all reputable science based health authorities recommend vaccines). Instead you vomit out wild theories that sound smart enough for people to believe you while your actions are causing people to die. And ironically, the less people who get the vaccine the more likely variants become. But you wouldn’t know that. Or care that old and sick people are dying and the economy suffocating.

Reported this comment for covid vaccine misinformation, whether you like it or not it is illegal. Stop being a sheep and try and think critically. No, not conspiracy ‘critical’, that’s just lazy.

What did you say your qualifications are? You are clearly very afraid for yourself and believe the blatant indoctrination. I suggest you pluck the courage to go see for yourself the mountains of independent research by highly qualified experts.

This is the problem I have with the way this thing is going. Either side prefers to be completely blind to info from the others side. Everything is either a “government conspiracy” or “fake news”. I have long since givin up on trying to find definitive info to convince me and rather find myself in the “vaccine hesitant” camp while trying to use logic to figure things out. In that spirit,pls explain how,if the vaccinated can still get the virus and still transmit it,the “not vaccinated” is responsible for it mutating?

Well you must be a medical researcher extrodinair Gargoyl! How idiotic of you to assume we normal plebs are of the same idiotic material to think that your gargling makes any logical sense at all. You are also saying that the Delta variant was bred in people who were vaccinated?
Your kind stood like last in the line for grey matter.

The Indian variant is actually a weaker version. Stronger versions require man-made interventions, such as experimental injections. So far the injections have been proved to be no better than prophylactics such as Vitamin D. But the pharmaceutical profit promoters have even stooped to blocking this information.

and in the final phase, the human-alien hybrids take over the world.

How to say “I can liek to support blue bulls” without saying “I are a blue bulls supporter”.

Try English, please.

All these theories. Yet all you do about them is whine on the internet and around the braai fire. A bit limp wristed no?

It is like you don’t even take them seriously. At all.

I agree with pro-vaccination. All these wierd theories. Maybe dont drink water incase it affected or breath in oxygen incase that is infected. if i wanted ti do these diabolical things that are quoted those are the first two things i would infect.

Oh shucks!! The honorable jugge wants to move the elections to early February next year. So the last 75 days before the election (the height of the campaigning) will be right in the middle of the next wave. Who are the scientists who gave this bad advice to the poor judge. Shame on them! Maybe it was also a slight misjudgement by the learned judge not to ask the scientists for a forecast on the next wave.

Ive reported Gargoyl for breaking the law by spreading misinformation about covid vaccinations.
Lets see how Moneyweb deals with the matter.
I honestly think that before anyone is allowed to join any forum or social media platform, an IQ test should be passed first.

The vaccine drive seems to be going backwards a bit.

The fact that we are way below target at around 180 000 against I think it is 350 000 jabs per day shows things might take far longer than anticipated.

What is more concerning to me and I am no statistician is that the latest figures show that there are far more 2de jabs administered than 1 jabs. In some provinces 2de jabs are more than double that of the 1st jabs. I find it strange. Does this indicate that vaccine hesitancy is much more prevalent than originally thought? OR is this part of the plan??

Maybe somebody with more knowledge can explain this. I have not seen any explanation for this unless I missed it.

I have included a link.

You should probably rather look at the cumulative figures on page 5 (I assume you’re looking at the daily numbers on page 4).

It’s not really that surprising, most of the 60-pluses who registered early, in numbers, will have been doing second jabs over the last few weeks. That and the decline in uptake for the first jab in very recent days.

Until their done making enough money from this, the show will go on. Casualties are just part of the show, people die every day, nothing will ever change that fact. Given the history of our government, as soon an institution like that tells you that it ‘has you best interest at heart’ with every decision/action it takes, that’s when you should really be afraid.

Another Wave excuse to ban alcohol for 6 weeks. I’m sure it’s the Alcohol industry (SAB/Distell) themselves who instigated these bans as unlike the Tabaco industry they never willfully approached the courts against these bans but only protested in the media & made bogus threats of investment suspension only to walk back later as well as only approaching the courts with amateurish arguments destined to not even be heard by any learned judge. To me it seems the alcohol industry with the exception of Vinpro have all to gain from prohibition and knock all the small craft beer and competitive brewers out of the market thus colluding with government to establish a monopoly. Those that disagree, please inform me who brews all the so-called illegal alcohol on sale during prohibition if not the aforementioned.

A little over 78000 people have died from covid since the start almost 24 month ago. That is 1 in every 1000 people in south Africa or roughly 0.13% death rate in a population of 60 million. This is less than the murder rate in 2019 and 2020.
The question is, we react to covid by locking up everyone and stripping our rights to move freely, we are told what and when we may drink, what time we must lock ourselves in our homes. Are we treating our citezens as criminals? For what? Be healthy the virus is dangerous but with a healthy immune system your body has a 99.87% chance of survival, yes you may get sick and covid may even cause perminant damage but should we loose our freedom of choice, of movement for this?
If you are scared or have Co morbidities take the vaccine if you think it will help, or take vitamins and do exercise. Think for yourselves, would covid be this scary if we had no lockdown, and if the media did not tell us 24/7 how many people are infected, take note not how many people die because that’s about the same as people dying by murder or car accidents every day, are we locking ourselves in our houses or walking everywhere because of this danger? Think for yourselves, switch off the radio or TV news off for 2 days and then see how scary covid is.

I have a few questions for the seers on the government’s ministerial advisory committee:-
1) Can we please get the dates for the rest of the waves after that so that we can plan our business activities, annual leave and basically our lives better
2) Please can you tell what the name of this new variant will be or is it going to one already in circulation else where like LAMBDA?
3) You tell people to stop fear mongering and then do the same thing, really.
4) where do you think all the money is going to come from to keep paying grants with all your shutdowns

I would also please like to know
– the specific symptoms of the variant they are expecting
– how much more/less transmittable it will be than the previous variants
– how many booster shots will be required for this
– when will the lockdown start and end (dates please)
– what level of lockdown will be ‘required’
The learned doctor surely has all the answers to these.

and when they will start mandating vaccines and enforcing the vaccine-passport system to buy food, travel or work. I would love to know their timeline for rolling that out here.

End of comments.




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