South Africa Covid-19 deaths higher than reported, experts say

Medical researchers find a ‘huge discrepancy’ between the country’s confirmed Covid-19 fatalities and the number of excess natural deaths.
Image: Bloomberg

Medical researchers in South Africa found a “huge discrepancy” between the country’s confirmed Covid-19 fatalities and the number of excess natural deaths, providing further evidence that the number of people who have perished from the disease is higher than the government reports.

South Africa has the world’s fifth-worst epidemic, with 471 123 cases. The Health Ministry reported 7 479 Covid-19 deaths to date on Wednesday, significantly lower than Iran or the UK, which have a similar total case count.

Yet the number of excess deaths has shown a “relentless increase” in the past weeks, reaching 22 279 between May 6 and July 21, far higher than what would have been expected based on historical data, the South African Medical Research Council said in a report Thursday. Reported deaths have also shown a pattern that is completely different to those indicated by historical trends, it said.

In the week ended July 21 there were 6 256 excess deaths, 63% higher than would normally have been expected and a rise from 59% the week earlier.

Excess deaths are generally calculated using all-cause mortality. The council’s Burden of Disease Research Unit, together with the Centre for Actuarial Research, analysed the numbers using a different approach, focusing on deaths from natural causes and removing the impact of changes such as the lockdown on unnatural deaths. In South Africa, deaths related to trauma have slumped as the sale of alcohol has been banned and there are also fewer car crashes.

The council “has been tracking mortality for decades in South Africa, and this system has identified excess deaths associated with the Covid-19 epidemic,” Glenda Gray, the council’s chief executive officer, said in the statement. “These may be attributed to both Covid-19 deaths as well non-Covid-19 due to other diseases such as tuberculosis, HIV and non-communicable diseases, as health services are re-orientated to support this health crisis.”

© 2020 Bloomberg

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Well the ANC Government has proved to be a bunch of common lairs and in addition has a long history of not being able to count.

They can’t run a country let alone a pandemic.

I bet thousands have died in the rural areas of civid but its called flu.

Just as Aid’s deaths are always the chest, ask any rural dweller why his/her relation died. “Die bors” is the answer.

Why are the deaths under-reported – there is an election coming.

Just as Aids deaths were severely under-reported.

Who are these researchers? Where is their published reporting?
Stats can be manipulated and misrepresented by most anyone. The media do it non-stop in order to drive fear into the populace and make them easier to use and control. E.G. Number of cases is clearly meaningless.
The excess mortality should not exist if lockdown saves lives due to no traffic so no road carnage and suchlike. But most countries have been politically directed to ascribe covid cause generically so as to create cause for continued fear and lock down and continued state of disaster politics. This enables the blatant dictatorship and cover-ups whilst the money is being mis-allocated and redirected. Even more opportunities will arise from the vaccine roller coaster.
In reality the excess deaths are due to natural causes that are no longer receiving any medical attention consequential to manufactured fear and medical resource mismanagement. I suppose these deaths and all suicides can also be ascribed to the virus. Even the lockdown itself is said to be the work of the virus when it is clearly the work of misguided politicians.
Only the taxi industry can hasten the passing of this particular virus strain by assisting the propagation and hastening the generating of herd immunity.

There is no denying that Covid-19 has killed more people than usual, but whether a hard extended lockdown was really required I personally don’t think so. I said from the beginning that a lockdown was a mistake as all it does is delay the Covid-19 peak, but at a terrible cost. The human, social and economic cost of this lockdown will be felt for many years to come. Instead of lockdown those in the high risk brackets should have been protected and taken extra precautions, including everyone wearing masks in crowded areas. However shutting down the economy was not a solution. It has now lead to an economic depression with millions of unemployed. I wonder in the months and years to come how many more people will die of starvation and suicide, caused by the lockdown, than of Covid-19?

I think this situation has more than one side. If we could afford and had the capacity to test everybody in the country, we will probably find more people who were infected and have recovered without even knowing it, than the actual figures of infections published everyday. There are also people dying of flu-like symptoms every year. In rural areas, where there are no facilities for testing, people are probably dying of Covid 19, but are buried as people who died of flu or any other illness they had before.
In a situation like this, where systems are overwhelmed by the virus, I believe a lot of this deaths will fall through the cracks without being registered as Covid 19 cases. I believe the SAMRC stats are correct, but that does not mean that there is a conspiracy to misrepresent the figures. You can only report what is known.
It is however good to know there are people like the SAMRC who keep tabs on this pattern. Maybe it will convince people to be more careful.

6 months in, and we’re all still guessing!!

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