NAV on 2019/11/14
|NAV on 2019/11/13
|52 week high on 2019/06/21
|52 week low on 2019/01/04
|Total Expense Ratio on 2019/03/31
|Total Expense Ratio (performance fee) on 2019/03/31
|Oil & Gas
Old Mutual Unit Trust Managers (RF) (Pty) Ltd.
South African--Multi Asset--Medium Equity
Hanno is currently part of the portfolio management team responsible for managing retail and institutional assets. His responsibilities include managing multi-asset class funds, as well as local and international equity portfolios.
Before joining Old Mutual Investment Group, Hanno worked in the UK for two years.
Since joining Old Mutual in 1998, Hanno has been involved in the management of
derivative, multi-asset class funds, equity portfolios and hedge funds.
Old Mutual Dynamic Floor comment - Sep 19
The third quarter of 2019 saw continued concerns mounting around the trajectory of global growth. This pressure was somewhat alleviated by central banks adopting supportive policy easing, most notably in the form of rate cuts and liquidity injections. Both the Federal Reserve (the Fed) and the European Central Bank (ECB) cut rates during the quarter. A sharp spike in oil prices occurred in September after an attack on two major oil facilities in Saudi Arabia, adding to the already heightened volatility and market uncertainty.
US-China trade tensions continue to linger with no imminent resolution in sight, despite top trade negotiators from both countries agreeing to meet in Washington during the course of October. Attention will then turn to Britain’s Prime Minister, Boris Johnson, and whether he can follow through and deliver Brexit on the 31 October deadline.
Despite these headwinds, the MSCI World Index (developed market proxy) returned 0.5% over the quarter in US dollar terms, with the S&P 500 Index up 1.7% despite concerns about elevated stock valuations.
Locally, the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) cut rates by 0.25% in July but opted to keep rates unchanged in September, leaving room for further rate cuts this year due to subdued economic growth and a stable inflation outlook. Fitch Ratings cut South Africa’s outlook to negative during the quarter, after Moody’s implied that a downgrade to junk may be on the cards. Eskom remains the biggest threat to the fiscus, with the entity’s debt hovering around 9% of total GDP, and a workable plan around reducing the burden on the economy key to getting the economy back on track.
The FTSE/JSE All Share Index dropped by 4.6% in Q3, with the MSCI Emerging Markets Index shedding 4.2% in US dollar terms, capping a dismal quarter for emerging market equities.
At portfolio level, our effective equity exposure fluctuated somewhat intra-quarter but closed out the period close to where it started at around 51.7%, with strong offshore asset performance somewhat negating the negative performance experienced by domestic risky assets. While we are currently tilted in favour of offshore equities over domestic equities, due to the aforementioned domestic growth and fiscal concerns, we remain wary of the overstretched valuations in certain markets and continually look to hedge our larger offshore currency exposures with the dual aim of locking in incremental gains in the ongoing low-return environment, along with reducing overall portfolio risk.
Given the well-diversif ied nature of the Old Mutual Dynamic Floor Fund and its moderate exposure to growth assets, the fund will continue to deliver returns in a risk-controlled framework with reduced volatility. The portfolio is still well positioned to meaningfully participate in any further equity market rallies. We do, however, remain cautious and are well placed to protect capital should markets retrace. This approach has served the portfolio well as it continues to provide the optimal blend of exposure to growth assets and capital protection.
The fund strives for long-term capital growth as well as some level of capital protection. Through the use of a quantitative risk model, the fund aims to profit from a rising share market and protect against capital losses in a weak market. The fund invests across shares, bonds and cash - moving from shares into fixed-interest investments when the fund's value drops below a predetermined 'floor'. When markets start to move up, the fund increases its holdings in shares, tapping into these growth opportunities. The fund aims to protect at least 90% of the net investment over a 12-month period. The fund is ideally suited to the more risk averse investor whose priority is capital preservation but who still wants to participate in upside market growth. It suits investors who want: * Protection of invested capital * The level of capital protection to follow markets upwards * Active equity management This is a moderate risk fund (risk rating 3). The risk management model aims to protect the portfolio value at a forward 'floor' level. The model will adjust the portfolio's asset allocation dynamically to protect capital. This form of portfolio protection is not a guarantee, but clearly a protective strategy only. The protective strategy is effective over typical 12-month rolling periods. Short-term fund value fluctuations can occur. Derivatives will be used tactically to manage and limit downside risk, and to capture or lock in gains as and when they occur. Dynamic Floor Technology Equities are the key driver of long-term after tax returns in excess of inflation, but they introduce short-term capital risk. The manager therefore uses dynamic floor technology to reduce the risk of loss in the fund, whilst still allowing the fund to benefit from positive equity performance. In other words, dynamic asset allocation decisions are driven by a quantitative process that reduces exposure to riskier assets in a declining or volatile equity market in favour of more stable assets like cash. The opposite would apply in a rising equity market. Furthermore, as positive returns are generated above a certain level, so the floor is raised in order to protect these returns from future losses. The floor is typically set at 10% below current fund value, with a one-year time horizon. It does not represent a guarantee but reflects a target maximum loss in any one year whilst still giving the fund uncapped upside potential.