December was a risk-on month for global markets. The primary reasons were positive outcomes in global politics. In the UK, Boris Johnson’s Conservative Party won a parliamentary majority that provided him with free rein to take Britain out of the European Union. This brought more certainty to the prolonged separation and increased the likelihood that some sort of deal will be reached at the end of January. More importantly, the United States and China managed to reach a phase 1 deal in their trade war that slowed global trade in 2019. The exact nature of the deal is not known, but the agreement did avert the 15% tariffs that were to be put on a broad range of consumer goods by the US on Chinese imports. Despite some trade uncertainty going forward, the positive political outcomes resulted in the MSCI World and MSCI Emerging Market (EM) delivering 2.89% and 7.17% respectively (both in USD). On the back of the risk-on sentiment global bonds were up only 0.52% (in USD), while EM bonds delivered 2.52% (in USD). Global property fared slightly better than global bonds, delivering 0.62% (in USD).
Locally, any positivity that resulted from SAA being placed under business rescue was short-lived when heavy rains in the north of the country and potential foul play led to rolling blackouts. In spite of this, the local market followed the global risk-on trend. Local equities were up 3.30% (in rands), driven primarily by the rally in the resources sector, which was up 6.85% (in rands). The blackouts did weigh on the property sector, which was down 2.07% (in rands). The global risk-on sentiment and search for yield benefitted local bonds – which gained 1.86% (in rands). Local cash was up 0.58% and inflation-linked bonds gained 0.89% (both in rands).