2019/05/29 00:00:00

The levels reached by global equities in their wider rally for 2019 remains dependent on signs of a resolution in the trade war. However, concern about the darkening outlook for global growth has drawn investors back into government bond markets in March. A weaker outlook for the global economic growth in the first quarter of 2019 was reflected in the decline in sovereign bond yields as a dovish Fed and ECB led to a repricing of interest rate outlooks. Furthermore, risks to growth remain and the US yield curve (measured by the difference between the 10-year and 3-month Treasury yields) inverted, thereby flashing a recession signal for the first time since 2007. The Fed signalled no rate rises this year, bringing its projections more in line with market expectations. The ECB’s actions were more dovish than expected, with a fresh round of cheap lending for Eurozone banks due to start in September. The highly uncertain outcome of Brexit and a slowdown in global growth will continue to create a challenging mix for the ECB. South Africa made it through another scheduled Moody’s review to retain its local currency investment-grade rating with a stable outlook. Moody’s delayed South Africa’s ratings review with SA national elections on 8 May 2019.
With signs of a deepening global economic slowdown and negative headlines, emerging market currencies came under pressure in March. As such, the rand depreciated some 2.50% relative to the dollar. Markets largely shrugged off concerns around trade disputes and geopolitical uncertainty. The MSCI World index delivered some 3.92% in rands. Emerging markets underperformed their developed counterparts. The MSCI Emerging Markets index delivered some 3.42% in rands. The flight from risk kept investors piling into government bonds, pushing yields lower. The JP Morgan Global Aggregate returned some 4.16% in rands. Emerging market bonds lagged their developed market counterparts, delivering some 3.70% in rands. The outlook for developed market REITs and commercial real estate remains favourable, despite some mixed macroeconomic news this year and potential headwinds for distribution growth. As such, developed market property delivered some 6.32% in rands.
The local equity market followed global equity markets higher and rallied some 1.56% in rands. The positive outcome was driven by Resources and Industrials both rallying some 4.61% and 3.49% respectively. Financials struggled in March, declining some 4.78%. Local longer dated bond yields were largely unchanged over the month. The SA 10-year government bond yield rallied some 13 basis points in the month. As such, the All Bond index delivered some 1.33% in rands. Inflation-linked bonds underperformed their fixed coupon counterparts, delivering some -0.85% in rands. The listed property sector continues to struggle having given the weakest dividend forecasts in more than a decade as they struggle to grow rentals and fill vacancies amid weak business and consumer confidence. As such, the SAPY declined some 1.46% in rands.