2019/09/03 00:00:00

The World Bank reduced its growth forecasts in June due to the trade conflict between the US and China, given that between them the two countries account for more than a third of global economic activity. Global growth is now forecast at just 2.6% for 2019 from 2.9% previously forecast. Global trade is slowing, and countries directly exposed to the trade war are showing a marked deceleration. While a handshake deal between the US and China took some heat out of the trade war, existing tariffs look set to stay in place. The Fed has turned sharply dovish as a result of sluggishly low inflation, threats to the growth outlook due to weaker global trade and geopolitical tensions from the trade war. The US bond market continues to price in aggressive interest rate cuts over the next 18 months and was composed by the Fed’s decision not to cut in June. Locally, South Africa’s GDP posted its biggest quarterly contraction since 2009 in the first quarter of this year, printing a -3.2% quarter-on-quarter versus 1.4% growth in the previous quarter. The rand relative to the dollar appreciated some 3.24% in June as risk sentiment improved amid expectations of looser monetary policy in the US and the Eurozone.
The local equity market followed global markets higher, and the MSCI World index delivered some 3.25%. Furthermore, the MSCI EM index marginally underperformed its developed market counterpart, delivering some 2.94%. Underscoring yields moving lower in the month is a sense of cautiousness following the dovish pivot by a number of central banks in recent times. As such, the JP Morgan Global Aggregate index lagged risk assets and delivered -1.16% as the currency strengthened. Given the riskon month, emerging market bonds fared better than their developed market counterparts, delivering some 0.80%. The local equity market followed global markets higher, and the ALSI delivered 4.78%. The strong rally in the local market was largely driven by the Resi-20 index delivering some 10.28%. The ALBI lagged its risky counterparts and delivered 2.27%, with the 7-12 year area of the yield curve rallying some 2.70%. Furthermore, inflation-linked bonds underperformed their fixed coupon counterparts, delivering 0.13%. Given the risk-on environment the local property market delivered some 2.20%. Local cash delivered 0.59% for the month of June.