Economic overview
An escalation in international trade tensions, a gradual erosion of democratic standards in Europe, rising world debt levels, tighter global financial conditions and geopolitically driven oil price shocks have dampened optimism around global economic prospects. The timing, degree and effect of previous fiscal and monetary interventions by the major central banks and varying progress in fiscal and monetary exit strategies have further given rise to a desynchronisation in global growth. Tell-tale signs of a late-cycle phase are emerging in the United States. The fading effect of the fiscal boost, higher expected interest rates and onerous tariffs are likely to trigger a downswing in 2020. Meanwhile, internal politics threaten Europe's growth outlook, as it transitions from mid to late cycle. If the newly formed anti-establishment coalition government in Italy fails to cooperate with European authorities, contagion effects could ripple throughout the bloc.
Protectionist policies and diminishing liquidity have generated uncertainty in emerging markets (EM), although they are, in general, far better positioned today to withstand external shocks. Though South Africa (SA) has been unfairly categorised within the latest EM grouping in terms of economic mismanagement, the country does exhibit some vulnerabilities, which stack up relatively poorly compared to other EMs. Nevertheless, unless there is a significant fiscal disappointment or further unconditional guarantees allocated to state-owned enterprises, sovereign ratings are likely to remain steady into the end of the year. A tepid near-term growth environment and a non-threatening inflation trajectory in SA point to the start of a shallow interest rate hiking cycle in due course.
Market overview
Emerging markets experienced some headwinds in the third quarter, brought on by continued global trade tensions, rising oil prices and a stronger US dollar. South African growth assets weakened, with local equities (SWIX total return index) posting -3.3% for the quarter and the Capped SWIX -1.7%. Listed Property continued to weaken on the back of increased earnings growth scrutiny on some of the REITs, with the SAPY pulling back by 1% for the quarter. An initial marginal recovery in the rand was followed by further volatility with the local currency ending 3% lower for the quarter.
Defensive assets reacted negatively to the deterioration in the macro backdrop and rising yields for the second consecutive quarter. Real yields rose an average 18 basis points across the curve, following nominal yields higher and inflation surprising to the downside. The real yield curve flattened during the sell-off, with the largest move in the short-dated maturities as the SARB turned more hawkish in response to the risk-off environment. This led to impaired returns, with bonds (ALBI) delivering 0.81% and ILB's (IGOV) returning 0.46%. Cash (STeFI) was king at 1.76% for the quarter.