2018/12/11 00:00:00

Domestic
The local market started the month on the back foot, not only hampered by a sharply depreciating currency, but also by the news that the economy entered a technical recession during the second quarter of this year when GDP growth contracted by 0.7%. This followed on revisions to first quarter growth which showed that the economy contracted by an even larger 2.6% during that period. The second quarter weakness was largely ascribed to the negative contribution from the agricultural and transport sectors. By month-end, President Ramaphosa announced a R400-billion stimulus package and a re-prioritisation of the existing budget framework to stimulate economic growth and job creation.
The FTSE/JSE All Share Index had a tough month and declined by -4.2%. It was dragged down by the Industrial sector which ended the month -8.1% lower. Within this sector, pharmaceutical and healthcare companies were particularly badly hit as concerns over their earnings grew. Financial shares lost -2.0% whereas Resources shares bucked the trend and closed 0.3% higher. The long-awaited Mining Charter was finally published at month-end and should pave the way towards more regulatory certainty for the sector.
After touching its weakest level in more than two years, the rand appreciated by 3.7% against the dollar to close the month at R14.15. Support came from the changing tide in investor sentiment towards emerging markets, the credibility of the local Reserve Bank as well data which showed that South Africa’s current account deficit improved from 4.6% in the previous quarter to 3.3% during the second quarter of the year. The Reserve Bank kept interest rates unchanged at their meeting during the month, but the tone in its accompanying statement was decidedly more hawkish. The Reserve Bank was provided with some reprieve as consumer price inflation moderated to 4.9% in August from 5.1% the previous month. The All Bond Index clawed its way back to end the month in positive territory with a 0.3% gain.
International
The MSCI All-Country World Index closed 0.3% higher for the month, but there was a big dispersion in underlying returns. US stock ended in the green, but the tech-heavy Nasdaq was negative whereas the mostly industrial focused Dow Jones was positive. The Japanese Nikkei 225 Index rallied by 5.5% to a 27-year high, but in contrast, European markets ended sharply negative. The German DAX was down 2%. Both the euro and European shares were hit at month-end by the news that Italy’s fiscal deficit target will be larger than expected. The MSCI Emerging Market Index recovered some ground and closed the month -0.8% lower. It followed moves by emerging market central banks to shore up confidence by hiking local interest rates.
Global developed market bond yields rose, and the Barclays Global Aggregate Bond Index closed the month -0.9% lower. The US 10-year government bond yield rose above the 3% level at a time when the US Fed remained committed to hiking interest rates into next year. The Fed hiked rates by 0.25% at their September meeting and indicated that, at least, another four hikes are possible before the end of next year. The price of oil spiked by nearly 7% as Brent crude rose above the $80 a barrel level due to supply concern as the US sanctions hit Iranian exports.