Adam Ebrahim was educated at the University of Cape Town in South Africa, where he received his B.Soc.Sc (Hons) degree. Thereafter he completed a post graduate diploma in accounting and was admitted as a chartered accountant and auditor in South Africa. Following the completion of his qualification as a chartered accountant, Adam completed the Association for Investment Management and Research’s Chartered Financial Analyst Programme, qualifying as a chartered financial analyst.
Adam has worked for Deloitte & Touche in South Africa and in London and has also gained work experience as an analyst, portfolio manager, director, and partner of a prominent asset management organisation. He currently serves as a member of the South African Minister of Finance’s Collective Investment Scheme Advisory Committee.
Oasis Bond comment - Sept 18
Over the last year, policy divergence among the largest economies has been reflected not only in their own economic performance, but also in that of other economies. A worsening trade environment is likely to exacerbate these divergences, and is a material risk to growth going into 2019. The global cyclical upswing reached its two-year mark and the pace of expansion in some economies appears to have peaked. The synchronised global growth is long gone, leaving domestic demand as the key driver. IMF global growth forecast for 2018 was projected at 3.9% in April this year, however, they will be revising this figure in October. We are at the stage of the policy tightening cycle in advanced economies which has contributed to the build-up of financial vulnerabilities. In this peculiar setting, history suggests a higher likelihood of accidents in financial markets and recent events support this view where markets buffeted by negative headlines from Italy, Turkey, Argentina, and broader emerging markets. Although, there are some idiosyncratic risks, they are being magnified by a persistent and steady Fed tightening cycle and the European Central Bank (ECB) slowly phasing out their Quantitative Easing (QE) program.
Going into autumn, the United States (US) economy expanded at a solid 4.1% over the second quarter of 2018 and 2.9% year-on-year (y/y). Bolstered by pro-cyclical policy, the US labour market is nearing full employment, consumption is robust as wage growth picks up, and investment continues to be boosted by tax cuts, regulatory reforms, and fiscal spending. The confluence of the robust private and public sector has put the US growth on a divergent path from that of the global economy. Across the Euro-zone, growth remained steady in the second quarter of 2018 at 0.4%, while y/y growth declined to 2.1%. The European commission noted that their aggregate measure of consumer and business confidence declined to its lowest level in more than a year during September. Additionally, all of the economies in Europe will be negatively affected by rising oil prices, persistent geopolitical uncertainty, impacts of Brexit, poor fiscal discipline in countries such as Italy, ongoing trade tensions and the shift to the populist right. However, growth projections remain strong for the area driven by countries such as Germany and the hope that the EU and UK will strike a deal for Brexit.
While the US and other advanced economies are still growing, the short-term concern in the global economy is centered in emerging countries where the growth divergence is becoming more evident. Countries such as Turkey, Argentina, Indonesia and South Africa are suffering from outflows of money, depreciation of their currency and therefore an increase in the burden of foreign currency denominated debt creating a challenging environment for the region.
As emerging markets have come under pressure in recent month amidst continued tightening of US monetary policy, growing noise and action around global trade policies and specific risks in specific countries, South Africa, with its relatively open capital account and twin current account and fiscal deficits, has not been spared. South Africa entered its first recession in the second quarter of 2018 since the global financial crisis of 2009. Although the external vulnerabilities are seen as a source of macroeconomic risk, South Africa’s latest balance of payment data was encouraging. The seasonally adjusted current account deficit narrowed markedly to 3.4% of GDP in the second quarter of 2018 from 4.6% of GDP in the first quarter. This was driven partially by an improvement in trade balance strengthening to 1.4% from a decline of 3.9% in the first quarter. Beyond the third quarter, current account dynamics will be driven fundamentally by the strength of foreign demand and the export commodity prices on the one side and by the strength of domestic demand and Brent crude oil prices on the other.
Following the relatively poor economic performance, President Cyril Ramaphosa announced that the government has formulated stimulus package focused on the reprioritisation of government spending and economic reform. However, there remain difficulties for government to reprioritise spending away from the relatively unproductive labour intensive organs of state and we expect a marginal impact to this shift in spending. In October, we look forward to the Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS) which will dictate the tune until February’s Budget and Moody’s Rating Agency review for South Africa. Although, the probability of a rating downgrade is minimal, Moody’s has warned that SA’s debt metrics and SOEs (stateowned enterprises) are key risks, and can lead to a change in SA’s rating. A strong recovery in GDP growth will be difficult to achieve given ongoing constraints on the consumer and persistently weak business confidence.
Following the news that Africa’s most industrialised economy has entered a recession, the rand and the government bonds tumble, wiping away the optimism that followed in February with the new President and Finance Minister. Additionally, the crisis in Turkey and the global trade war have affected local markets through contagion and rising risk aversion. The SA benchmark 10-year bond yield has been flirting around the 9.00% level, reaching a high of 9.47% in September 2018, as foreign investors scrambled to reduce volatility in their portfolio against a backdrop of rising economic risk. With the fading of ‘Ramaphoria’ and successive decline on a month-to-month basis in business and consumer confidence, benchmark yields have risen sharply. While inflation is still within the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) target band of 3%-6%, with rising fuel prices and the recent VAT hike, the consumer is under pressure. Although the rand has significantly depreciated in value over the recent months, SARB stated that they would not respond the rand’s movements in a 'targeted way' but only to the second-round effects of market shocks. SARB is still focused on its inflation-targeting mandate without government interference but stated that if South Africa experience a sustained rand weakness and it is pass-through to inflation, they will most likely have to intervene. Even with a deteriorating inflation outlook, the benchmark repo rate was left unchanged at 6.50% in September, with the governor striking a more hawkish note than in the last meeting. SARB reviewed the growth projections downwards to 0.7% in 2018 in light tighter global financial conditions and the change in investor sentiment towards emerging markets.
The objective of the Oasis Bond Fund is to provide investors with exposure to long-term fixed-interest securities for the purpose of sustained income generation. The Oasis Bond Fund therefore seeks to invest in high quality government and corporate debt instruments that will provide a reliable income stream over time.