2019/08/19 00:00:00

The second quarter of 2019 proved eventful on both the global and local fronts. Global macroeconomic conditions have deteriorated, due in part to heightened US-China trade tensions. While there was positive news stemming from the G20 meeting over the last weekend of June, much uncertainty remains on the subject of global trade. The gloomier economic picture has resulted in central banks adopting a looser monetary policy rhetoric. While some central banks have already cut rates, for example India - Australia and Malaysia - many market participants now expect the US Federal Reserve to loosen monetary policy during the second half of 2019.
Locally, the consensus view has moved to a rate cut from the South African Reserve Bank at the next meeting (in July). This follows a particularly poor Q1 GDP print of -3.2% y/y and a subdued inflation outlook. The results in the national elections in May, together with the stronger and smaller cabinet announced shortly thereafter, were necessary but unfortunately still not sufficient conditions for the sought-after local economic recovery we require. Government now needs to urgently implement reform plans, with the future of Eskom being the most pressing issue.
All told, local asset classes outperformed their respective global counterparts in the quarter, aided by the strengthening of the rand. Local bonds delivered good returns over this period, ahead of local equities. Global bond yields fell during the quarter, with German bund yields once again falling below zero while global equity markets advanced by 3.8% (MSCI All Country World Index in US dollar terms).
The Old Mutual Balanced Fund benefited from being tilted towards local assets over the quarter, specifically local bonds. However, the poor economic growth put several of the local equity holdings under pressure, thereby detracting from performance. Returns over the last three and five years are ahead of inflation, but are still muted given the lacklustre returns from local equities and property.
From a positioning perspective, the fund continues to look for opportunities to reduce global equity exposure. This is primarily due to our view on US equity - valuations appear somewhat demanding and we believe that the fundamentals for US companies are likely to deteriorate over the medium term. Equity markets outside of the US look more attractive from a valuation perspective, but require a catalyst to unlock that value. While reducing the global equity exposure, we are also rotating from the US to other regions.
One of our key views remains that South Africa looks to be one such attractive region. There remains much to be done to ensure a structural turnaround. However, we believe that following the elections President Ramaphosa will be able to implement his economic recovery plan with greater intensity. The first challenge is to address our precarious fiscal position, a key part of which revolves around the future of Eskom. As this plays out, we would expect confidence to return, slowly at first. Our local bond and currency positions should benefit initially as the country risk premium unwinds.
A sustainable improvement in economic growth remains a key objective, but is likely to remain elusive in the short term. Accordingly, we would expect the challenges faced by local companies to continue. While valuations have improved somewhat, we remain cautiously positioned with respect to our local equity holdings.
Uncertainty remains a key characteristic of the current environment. However, we are excited by the opportunities that are presenting themselves on a regular basis. We stand ready to take advantage of these opportunities on your behalf.