Economic overview
An escalation in international trade tensions, a gradual erosion of democratic standards in Europe, rising world debt levels, tighter global financial conditions and geopolitically driven oil price shocks have dampened optimism around global economic prospects. The timing, degree and effect of previous fiscal and monetary interventions by the major central banks and varying progress in fiscal and monetary exit strategies have further given rise to a desynchronisation in global growth. Tell-tale signs of a late-cycle phase are emerging in the United States. The fading effect of the fiscal boost, higher expected interest rates and onerous tariffs are likely to trigger a downswing in 2020. Meanwhile, internal politics threaten Europe's growth outlook, as it transitions from mid to late cycle. If the newly formed anti-establishment coalition government in Italy fails to cooperate with European authorities, contagion effects could ripple throughout the bloc.
Protectionist policies and diminishing liquidity have generated uncertainty in emerging markets (EM), although they are, in general, far better positioned today to withstand external shocks. Though South Africa (SA) has been unfairly categorised within the latest EM grouping in terms of economic mismanagement, the country does exhibit some vulnerabilities, which stack up relatively poorly compared to other EMs. Nevertheless, unless there is a significant fiscal disappointment or further unconditional guarantees allocated to state-owned enterprises, sovereign ratings are likely to remain steady into the end of the year. A tepid near-term growth environment and a non-threatening inflation trajectory in SA point to the start of a shallow interest rate hiking cycle in due course.
Market overview The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) left its benchmark repo rate unchanged at 6.5% on September 20th, 2018, in line with market expectations. However, the inflationary pressures such as high oil prices and currency weakness continue to pose an upside threat to the SARB's headline inflation forecast. The market is pricing in interest rate hikes as seen from the steepening FRA with a shallow hiking cycle anticipated in 2019. Momentum Investments expects the first hike beginning of 2019.
Portfolio overview A combination of existing floating rate instruments resetting at elevated spreads and fixed rate instruments continued to contribute to the portfolio's running yield.