2019/01/03 00:00:00

Fund review
The funds return was in line with its strategic benchmark over the third quarter of 2018. While allocations to local equity and local property detracted from performance over the last quarter, this was largely offset by allocations to fixed income assets and foreign asset classes. Foreign equity delivered attractive return diversification due to dollar strengthening over the quarter and US stocks rallying. We expect the impact of increased risk aversion over the short to medium term to be balanced by the fund’s diversified asset mix. The fund’s higher strategic allocation to less volatile assets both locally and offshore will provide meaningful stability to performance.
Market overview
Over the third quarter US equities led, driven by the strong growth environment and confidence in the US economy. In contrast to the attractive returns of US equities, fixed income returns have been uninspiring. Strong US data has kept the Fed on track to hike rates. Global growth has however not been as synchronised as last year. UK markets have been sensitive to suspicions of a no-deal on Brexit, and there has been a slowdown in manufacturing in the Eurozone, led by fewer exports into China. The rebound in the US dollar has made emerging markets especially vulnerable to negative sentiment and fear. Dollar denominated assets took the lead over local assets as the Rand lost 3.03% to the Dollar over the third quarter. In Rand terms foreign equity delivered the highest returns (MSCI World +8.17%) and outperformed foreign bonds (Barclays Global Treasury Bond Index +1.26%). In South Africa the second quarter saw a decline in consumer confidence and an increase in consumer spending. Cash (STEFI +1.74%), bonds (ALBI +0.81%) and inflation-linked bonds (ILBI +0.44%) outperformed both property (PCAP -2.22%) and equities (SWIX -3.34%). Seasonally adjusted GDP shrunk for a second consecutive period, driven by falling output from agriculture, transport and trade.
Looking ahead
Against the backdrop of strong US economic growth, there is potential for the trade conflict directed from the US to deepen, resulting in higher prices and a significant drag on business and consumer growth, and ultimately global growth. While growth appears healthy currently, we expect risk aversion to rise as the ability of developed markets and vulnerable emerging economies to weather the impact of trade wars remains uncertain. Additionally, emerging economies with sizeable dollar debts and sizable fiscal deficits may struggle. We believe investors should focus on liquid markets segments with risk dialled down versus market benchmarks. The commentary gives the views of the portfolio manager at the time of writing. Any forecasts or commentary included in this document are not guaranteed to occur.