2019/08/30 00:00:00

Fund review
The fund’s return was in line with its strategic benchmark over the second quarter of 2019. All allocations contributed positively towards the overall performance of the fund. The highest contributors to performance were derived from MSCI World (3.4%) and SWIX ALSI (2.86%).
Market overview
In the second quarter of 2019, equity markets continued to shrug off any negative sentiment arising from the second half of 2018. The majority of equity markets across the globe recorded strong positive returns in the first half of 2019, with the MSCI World Index recording 15.6%, MSCI Emerging Markets recording 9.2% and the South African equity market as represented by FTSE/JSE Shareholder Weighted Index recording 9%. Global growth continues at a slower pace with many of the major economies progressing to later stages of the business cycle. The less hawkish Fed and the pause in trade wars provided some relief for financial conditions but the era of easy money has shifted towards gradual tightening of monetary policy. Locally, Cyril Ramaphosa led the ANC to a win in the national elections promising tighter reforms and improved governance at struggling state owned entities. But, weak first quarter GDP dominated post-election headlines. Locally, domestic asset classes such as bonds (ALBI), property (PCAP) and cash (STeFi) recorded gains of 3.7%, 4.5% and 1.8% respectively.
Looking ahead
Against the backdrop of slowing global economic growth, pause in trade war and a less hawkish Fed, there is potential for some relief to the financial markets. But if trade uncertainty continues posing a significant drag on business and consumer confidence, we expect risk aversion will rise as the ability of developed markets and vulnerable emerging economies to weather the impact of trade wars remains uncertain. Additionally, emerging economies with sizeable dollar debts and fiscal deficits may struggle. After more than two years of steadily rising interest rates, 2019 could mark the peak for US treasury yields for the current business cycle, however the road ahead is likely to remain bumpy. Locally, uncertainty will remain high until the government provides evidence that SA’s economic policy and reforms are heading in the right direction for future growth. We believe investors should focus on liquid markets segments with risk dialled down compared with market benchmarks.
The commentary gives the views of the portfolio manager at the time of writing. Any forecasts or commentary included in this document are not guaranteed to occur.