Satrix Low Equity Balanced Index Fund - Mar 19
MSCI developed markets experienced an exceptional quarter with a US Dollar return of 12.5%, outperforming emerging markets, which in turn also realised good absolute numbers of 9.9% year to date. After experiencing their worst December since 1931, global stocks posted their best January since 1987 and global equities had their second-best quarter on record. But the rally wasnft plain sailing with economic data releases surprising on the downside. Global growth is trending around the 3% mark, but the key question remains whether global growth has indeed bottomed at around trend levels.
The temporary ceasefire in the trade war and the postponement of the 25% tariff rate have provided the markets with some relief. The US Federal Reserve (Fed) joined the party with some dovish comments and markets now expect the Fed to cut rates both this year and the next, with only a modest rise in the US 10-year bond rate being anticipated. Finally, lower volatility provided a more favourable environment for risky assets.
Despite the S&P 500 Index posting its best start of the year in a decade, the inversion of the US yield curve at the end of the quarter put a damper on the initial bullish mood with concerns of a recession looming. The Fed will be using interest rates to target inflation, but Fed Chair Jerome Powell mentioned that the US was not at the neutral rate providing optimism that future hikes will be delayed. The Fed has effectively paused the federal funds rate at 2.5%, which is below the neutral level of 3%. This provided a boost to risk assets and weakened the greenback temporarily. However, the possibility of a no-deal Brexit is also in the balance with another extension expected beyond the crucial 2 April vote. There is an increasing possibility that Britain will go for the customs union route (a so-called esoftf Brexit), but there remains the possibility of a referendum and an early election.
The Chinese economy continues to experience a soft landing with growth expected to be in the 6.0-6.5% p.a. range in the year to come, the slowest growth rate in three decades. The Chinese are stimulating their economy further with tax cuts . the latest measure to be implemented . and at the end of March the manufacturing PMI surprised on the upside with the biggest month-on-month increase since 2012.
Fixed income markets were very volatile at the end of 2018 and it seems like the eFed Putf is alive and well. The Fed turned outright dovish in January, with various governors indicating that they favoured leaving rates at current levels for an extended period because inflation had remained low. Yields on the benchmark US 10-year bond fell to 2.40% from 2.62% after the March Federal Open Market Committee meeting wherein the Fed edot plotsf indicated that the Fed was unlikely to raise rates this year and the median edotsf indicated only one rate increase in 2020. German and Japanese 10-year bond yields rallied to -0.07% and -0.09% respectively.
In the past decade economic growth has been hampered structurally by poor productivity. The SA Reserve Bank (SARB) leading indicator has started pointing downwards due to low manufacturing confidence and orders. Manufacturing confidence and orders have remained low for 10 years with the latest data showing a deepening contraction. We expect, nonetheless, a mild recovery from the GDP shock suffered in the first half of 2018, which is partly linked to weakening terms of trade and a weaker exchange rate (PPP Rand/Dollar being closer to 13) to shift our growth rate back towards a tepid 1.4% run rate (structurally we remain stuck below 2%).
South Africa is experiencing a steep yield curve, which would suggest that the economy should be improving. But the poor fiscal position has meant that the government has crowded out the private sector. This, in part, explains the low rate of credit growth at a sub-par 6% p.a. South Africa needs the private sector to invest but the return on investment remains too low. We do, however, expect a rebound in agricultural production to boost growth.
A key risk remains Eskom with the electricity availability factor dropping to 65% at the beginning of the year, leading to stage four load shedding. This has already negatively impacted manufacturing output. In the National Budget government committed to provide some R69 billion of support to Eskom over the next three years, partly allaying short-term fears given its balance sheet hole of some R200 billion.
At the end of the quarter, Moody’s also gave us a stay of execution postponing the release of its credit review until after the elections.
The JSE had a solid quarter with the FTSE/JSE Capped Shareholder Weighted Index (Capped Swix) posting a return of about 3.85% for the quarter, but is still staying in negative territory for the past 12 months. The market has rewarded businesses that have been stable and focused on organic growth while businesses that have been acquisitive and laden with debt have been punished. We are in an environment where there is a serious risk that liquidity will be withdrawn by central banks. Businesses which were very acquisitive and funded these acquisitions with debt have been at the mercy of the economic slowdown, which contributed to poor returns.
On a sectoral basis resources stocks were the stars of the JSE once again, up close to 18% this quarter. Platinum stocks continued to shine bright, up close to 50% aided by rising basket prices and the benefit of good cost management over the past few years. Financial stocks were flat this quarter with credit growth being very weak and corporate credit growth dipping below household credit growth for the first time in almost a decade. Industrial stocks posted solid returns, up close to 9% this quarter, a welcome difference to the recent past.
In February and March South Africa experienced stage four load shedding, which is expected to have a negative impact on the first-quarter growth rate. Yields on South African bonds underperformed the rally in developed markets partly because of an increased risk of a credit downgrade from Moody’s, which would have resulted in South Africa losing its investment-grade status and falling out of the World Government Bond Index (WGBI).
With inflation printing at 4% and 4.1% in January and February respectively, demand on inflation protection has been low. Inflation-linked bonds (ILBs) have continued to underperform nominal bonds. The Government Issued Bonds Index (IGOV) returned just 0.5% for the quarter compared to the FSE/JSE All Bond Index (ALBI) return of 3.76%. Yields on the 15-year ILB (R202) traded at 3.32%, their highest level since June 2009, and the long-dated I2025 touched a new high of 3.42%.
The domestic commercial property market continues to trade in a weak macroeconomic environment with low investor confidence. The FTSE/JSE SA Listed Property Index (SAPY) returned a total of 1.45% during the first quarter of 2019 against the -4% in the last quarter of 2019. This was still much worse than the FTSE/JSE All Share Index (ALSI) return of 8% and below that of cash (1.8%) and bonds, which returned a credible 3.8%. For the last 12 months the SAPY materially underperformed all other major domestic asset classes, returning -5.7% versus 5% for equities, 3.5% for bonds, and about 7.3% for cash.
The manager shall seek to achieve the objective by investing in a combination of equities, bonds, inflation linked bonds, assets in liquid form from (including money market instruments), listed property and international equities, fixed interest and listed property.
The investment manager will also be allowed to invest in derivatives as allowed by the Act from time to time in order to achieve its objective, as well as in participatory interests in collective investment schemes registered in the Republic of South Africa or of participatory interests in collective investment schemes or other similar schemes operated in territories with a regulatory environment whic is to the satisfaction of the manager and the trustee of a sufficient standard to provide for investor protection which is at least equivalent to that in South Africa. This combination of investments will enable the investment manager to track the performance of the Satrix Low Equity Balanced Index as closely as possible. When nivesting in derivatives, the manager will adhere to prevailing derivative regualtions.
The trustee shall ensure that the investment policy set out in the preceding clauses are adhered to, provided that nothing contained in this clauses shall preclude the Manager from varying the proportions of securities in terms of changing economic factors or market conditions or from retaining cash in the portfolio and/or placing cash on deposit.