2019/05/30 00:00:00

Fund review
In the last quarterly review of the index, Gold Fields, Remgro and Cie Financiere Richemont SA were included in the index while Standard Bank Group, Sanlam and Anglo American Plc were deleted. The fund has been repositioned for this change. The fund performed in line with its benchmark for the final quarter of the 2018. The fund benefited from its allocations to British American Tobacco and Kumba Iron Ore, while its allocations to Aspen Pharmacare Holdings and EOH Holdings detracted from performance.
Market overview
In the first quarter of 2019 equity markets shrugged off any negative sentiment arising from the second half of 2018. The majority of equity markets across the globe recorded strong positive returns, with the MSCI World Index recording 13.5%, MSCI Emerging Markets recording 11.1% and the South African equity market, as represented by FTSE/JSE All Share Index, recording 8%. Global growth continues at a slower pace with many of the major economies progressing to later stages of the business cycle. The less hawkish Fed provided some relief for financial conditions but the era of easy money has shifted towards gradual tightening of monetary policy. Locally, Eskom and corruption in other SOE’s remain in the headlines as domestic asset classes such as bonds (ALBI), property (PCAP) and cash (SteFi) recorded gains of 3.8%,1.73% and 1.9% respectively.
Looking ahead
Against the backdrop of slowing global economic growth, there is potential for trade uncertainty to continue, resulting in higher prices and a significant drag on business and consumer confidence. We expect risk aversion will rise as the ability of developed markets and vulnerable emerging economies to weather the impact of trade wars remains uncertain. Emerging economies with sizeable dollar debts and fiscal deficits may struggle. After more than two years of steadily rising interest rates, 2019 could mark the peak for US treasury yields for the current business cycle, however the road ahead is likely to remain bumpy. Locally, uncertainty will remain high until the widely anticipated national election provides some direction on the future of SA’s economic policy. We believe investors should focus on liquid market segments with risk dialled down compared with market benchmarks.
The commentary gives the views of the portfolio manager at the time of writing. Any forecasts or commentary included in this document are not guaranteed to occur.