2019/08/26 00:00:00

Fund review
In the last quarterly review of the index, Telkom SA SOC Ltd and Rand Merchant Investment Holdings were included in the index, while Compagnie Financiere Richemont SA and MTN Group Ltd were deleted. The fund has been repositioned for this change. The fund performed in line with its benchmark for the second quarter of 2019. The fund benefited from its allocations to Gold Fields Ltd and Ascendis Health Ltd, while its allocations to Kap Industrial Holdings and Sasol detracted from performance.
Market overview
In the second quarter of 2019, equity markets continued to shrug off any negative sentiment arising from the second half of 2018. The majority of equity markets across the globe recorded strong positive returns in the first half of 2019, with the MSCI World Index recording 15.6%, MSCI Emerging Markets recording 9.2% and the South African equity market as represented by FTSE/JSE Shareholder Weighted Index recording 9%. Global growth continues at a slower pace with many of the major economies progressing to later stages of the business cycle. The less hawkish Fed and the pause in trade wars provided some relief for financial conditions but the era of easy money has shifted towards gradual tightening of monetary policy. Locally, Cyril Ramaphosa led the ANC to a win in the national elections promising tighter reforms and improved governance at struggling state owned entities. But, weak first quarter GDP dominated post-election headlines. Locally, domestic asset classes such as bonds (ALBI), property (PCAP) and cash (STeFi) recorded gains of 3.7%, 4.5% and 1.8% respectively.
Looking ahead
Against the backdrop of slowing global economic growth, pause in trade war and a less hawkish Fed, there is potential for some relief to the financial markets. But if trade uncertainty continues posing a significant drag on business and consumer confidence, we expect risk aversion will rise as the ability of developed markets and vulnerable emerging economies to weather the impact of trade wars remains uncertain. Additionally, emerging economies with sizeable dollar debts and fiscal deficits may struggle.
After more than two years of steadily rising interest rates, 2019 could mark the peak for US treasury yields for the current business cycle, however the road ahead is likely to remain bumpy. Locally, uncertainty will remain high until the government provides evidence that SA’s economic policy and reforms are heading in the right direction for future growth. We believe investors should focus on liquid markets segments with risk dialled down compared with market benchmarks.
The commentary gives the views of the portfolio manager at the time of writing. Any forecasts or commentary included in this document are not guaranteed to occur.