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Global equity markets collapsed in September, with commodities particularly hard hit – the JSE Top 40 fell 14% from its August peak to September lows. Market turmoil came on the back of slowing economic growth, Covid uncertainty, Fed tapering, China's debt crisis, Biden's tax hikes and steep valuations. Commodities in particular were hard hit by the Chinese housing growth slow down (catalysed by the Evergrande default), China's energy supply being hampered by its “Olympic Blue Sky” environmental projects and additional supply coming online where some bottlenecks have improved. The vaccination campaign in emerging markets has accelerated, but it has decelerated in developed markets, leading to a convergence of mobility. While the spike in cases in highly vaccinated countries such as Israel and the UK shows that complete immunity is unlikely, hospital utilisation rates continue to fall. As long as everyone who wants a vaccine is able to receive one, the political pressure to maintain lockdowns will decrease and economies will remain open. Corrections are frequent and probable, and this pullback is no exception. Bear markets typically coincide with recessions, and the outlook over the next 12 months is consistent with a continued economic expansion.

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